2004-2009年大连地区短时暴雨分析预报

为提高对短时暴雨的预警能力,利用2004-2009年3-10月大连降水资料和天气雷达回波资料,对此期间的45次暴雨过程进行气候特征和活动规律等进行分析。结果表明：有32次过程出现短时暴雨,其中7-8月出现27次,占全部短时暴雨的84.4%。造成这些短时暴雨的雷达回波,主要是源于大连西南、南和东南部沿海的介于强对流性和稳定性之间的混合性降水回波,占70%以上。将短时暴雨降水资料扩大到乡镇级自动站与雷达回波分析,结果发现：造成大连地区短时暴雨的直接原因是突发于混合性云团中的中-β尺度回波。通过归纳定义“混合性中-β尺度回波”模型,并结合其他探测信息和技术手段,可以提高短时暴雨的预警能力。     

Short-term optimal operation of water systems using ensemble forecasts

Short-term water system operation can be realized using Model Predictive Control (MPC). MPC is a method for operational management of complex dynamic systems. Applied to open water systems, MPC provides integrated, optimal, and proactive management, when forecasts are available. Notwithstanding these properties, if forecast uncertainty is not properly taken into account, the system performance can critically deteriorate.Ensemble forecast is a way to represent short-term forecast uncertainty. An ensemble forecast is a set of possible future trajectories of a meteorological or hydrological system. The growing ensemble forecasts’ availability and accuracy raises the question on how to use them for operational management.The theoretical innovation presented here is the use of ensemble forecasts for optimal operation. Specifically, we introduce a tree based approach. We called the new method Tree-Based Model Predictive Control (TB-MPC). In TB-MPC, a tree is used to set up a Multistage Stochastic Programming, which finds a different optimal strategy for each branch and enhances the adaptivity to forecast uncertainty. Adaptivity reduces the sensitivity to wrong forecasts and improves the operational performance.TB-MPC is applied to the operational management of Salto Grande reservoir, located at the border between Argentina and Uruguay, and compared to other methods.     

山丹-民乐6.1和5.8级地震短期异常特征

总结分析了2003年10月25日发生在甘肃山丹-民乐6 1级、5 8级地震的异常特征,总体表现为:(1)地震活动在空间上的丛集和地震活动水平的明显增强现象,以及一些显著地震事件的发生和有序迁移;(2)震源区外前兆异常出现大幅度同步变化的短期异常特征。     

康定6.3级地震前鲜水河南段跨断层形变异常分析

2014年11月22日,四川省甘孜州康定县（30.3°N,101.7°E）发生6.3级地震,震源深度18km。地震发生在有跨断层形变测量场地的鲜水河断裂带康定至道孚之间的色拉哈断裂。结合该断裂带2000年以来的跨断层形变观测资料,笔者重点对老乾宁、折多塘监测场地在康定地震前的观测资料进行了分析,得出了以下结论：①从2013年5月开始,老乾宁基线观测曲线持续上升,反映出鲜水河南段断层张性活动有所增强;②老乾宁、折多塘场地短水准观测曲线2014年5月至9月加速下降,断层压性活动增强,有明显的短期异常;③老乾宁、折多塘短水准异常对康定6.3级地震的短期预测有着明确的指示意义。     

中强震前新沂台地电阻率和短水准异常及其相关性的研究

对1995-2002年新沂台地电阻率和短水准进行对比分析,表明它们之间存在一定的相关性;同时在中强震之前,两者都有一定的异常与之对应。其相关性和地震对应性表明：由于是同场地观测,所受力源相同,造成异常变化量基本相同;但由于两者对应力变化反应结果不同,造成其异常出现存在不同程度的相位差,地电阻率出现的异常基本上早于短水准的异常。     

1998年1月10日张北-尚义6.2级地震前昌平地震台应变资料的异常变化分析

分析了昌平地震台体应变、线应变及差应变等观测资料在１９９８ 年１ 月１０日张北尚义６ ．２ 级地震前的异常变化．结果表明：该次地震前昌平台的应变观测资料出现了明显的趋势异常;体应变的异常时间与震级有较好的相关性;差应变资料显示了短临异常;由线应变资料计算的主应变方向在地震前逐渐向震中偏转; Ｍ２ 波潮汐因子也出现了明显的异常变化     

地震电磁辐射数字化观测方法及异常信号分析

地震电磁辐射观测对短临预报非常有意义,讨论了以计算机为核心的数字化观测系统的可行性与必要性,并给出了实际观测系统的设计方法。数字化系统具有观测灵敏度高,便于观测信号的实时分析识别,便于应用算法提取短临预报的有用信息和便于观测台网间数据交流与处理等优点,基于对观测信号的时域,频域分析的比较,给出干扰信号与异常电磁辐射信号的判别方法。     

1995—1996年云南地区三次强震前地震活动的短期异常

在地震学参量年度异常的背景＾（３）,阐述了１９９５￣１９９６年云南地区发生的孟连、武定、丽江三次强震前的地震活动短期异常,包括地震平静、小震群、窗口地震、调制地震、地震波参数以及４级左右地震向震中迁移等。结果表明,这些异常特征表现突出,其演化进程显示了强震孕育的阶段性。     

气候预测探索路上的4+1级台阶

简要介绍了本所创立的短期气候预测的“地方图方法”３６年来所走过的道路。它已经跨越了四级台阶;选定地温作为主要因子坚持实际预测,转向“地心说”和创建“地气图方法”。剩最后一级台阶－建立短期气候预测的“地球动力学方法”有待不畏艰险,不计名利的后来者去攀登。     

Significance of an In Vivo Genotoxicity Test for Surface Waters Is Increased when the Physiological Characteristics of the Test Organism (Bivalvia: Mollusca) Are Taken into Account?

The alkaline filter elution assay using the gills of the freshwater clam species Corbicula fluminea detects breaks in single‐stranded DNA and is thus a good method for determining the genotoxic potential of surface waters. In attempting to standardize the procedure, a wide range of factors which could have an influence on the uptake of genotoxic substances by the exposed clams were studied. The most important parameters of the static exposure in relation to the rate of filtration by the animals turned out to be the temperature, the volume of the water, and the exposure time. Differences in body size and in the amount of suspended particles in surface waters did not play a significant role. The results demonstrate that the in vivo test system can be quite sensitive and its results reproducible when the relevant species‐specific characteristics of the test organisms are brought into consideration, even if the test organism belongs to a biologically more advanced group. A clear dose‐response relationship to the reference substances 4‐nitroquinoline‐1‐oxide (NQO) and N‐methyl‐N‐nitro‐N‐nitrosoguanidine (MNNG) can be observed even after a short exposure time of between four and twenty hours. No genotoxic effects were observed when using this method on surface waters from the area of Cologne (including water from the Rhine River and within the protection zone 2 of the Cologne waterworks).