高时空分辨率三维风场在强对流天气临近预报中的融合应用研究

以业务应用为目标,开展高时、空分辨率三维风场在强对流天气临近预报中的融合应用研究。运用北京快速更新多尺度分析和预报系统集成子系统（RMAPS-IN,Rapid-refresh Multi-scale Analysis and Prediction System-Integration）,对雷达四维变分分析系统（VDRAS）30 min临近预报的高时、空分辨率三维风场作为数据源与自动气象站风场观测进行快速融合处理。结果表明,以VDRAS临近预报风场取代数值模式预报场作为融合初猜场后形成的分析结果对于风场有明显的改善:（1）长时间序列客观检验结果表明,地面10 m高风场U/V分量绝对误差分别为0.05和0.06 m/s。实时融合对未来预报的影响随着预报时效的延长,U/V分量的绝对误差不断增大。（2）对于11个强对流个例,地面10 m高风场风速均方根误差降低0.3 m/s,风向均方根误差降低13°;边界层三维风场,风速均方根误差降低0.8 m/s,风向均方根误差降低10°。平原站点融合以后风速、风向预报效果有较大改善,山区站点融合以后改善相对较小。（3）通过对2017年7月20日暴雨和7月7日雷暴大风个例的详细分析,发现融合基于雷达资料四维变分同化获得的高分辨率临近预报风场对各对流系统中的中尺度结构特征给出了更加细致准确的描述。      

The REM Adjoint System and Its 4DVar Data Assimilation Experiments

The Regional Eta-coordinate Model(REM) has performed well in forecasting heavy rainfalls in China in recent years.A four-dimensional variational assimilation system(4DVar) is developed to improve the forecast skill of the REM.The tangent linear model and adjoint model codes are written according to thecode to coderule,and the establishment of the REM adjoint modeling system is introduced in detail in this paper.The tangent linear and adjoint models of the REM are validated against the observational data,...     

Analysis of the Decadal and Interdecadal Variations of the East Asian Winter Monsoon as Simulated by 20 Coupled Models in IPCC AR4

Using the output data of 20 coupled climate models used in IPCC AR4 and observational data from NCEP, the capability of the models to simulate the boreal winter climatology of the East Asian sea level pressure, 850-hPa wind, and surface air temperature; the decadal variations of the East Asian winter mon- soon (EAWM) intensity and EAWM-related circulation, and the interdecadal variations of EAWM-related circulation are systematically evaluated. The results indicate that 16 models can weakly simulate the declin- ing trend of the EAWM in the 1980s. More than half of the models produce relatively reasonable decadal variations of the EAWM-related circulation and the interdecadal di?erences of EAWM-related circulation between the boreal winters of 1960-1985 and 1986-1998, including the weakened Siberian high, Aleutian low, and East Asian trough, the enhanced Arctic oscillation and North Pacific oscillation, and a deepened polar vortex. It is found that the performance of the multi-selected-model ensemble in reproducing the spatial dis- tribution of the variations is encouraging, although the variational amplitudes are generally smaller than the observations. In addition, it is found that BCCR_BCM2.0, CGCM3.1_T63, CNRM_CM3, CSIRO_MK3.0, GISS-ER, INM_CM3.0, and MRI_CGCM2.3.2 perform well in every aspect     

Application of a Bayesian model to infer the contribution of coalbed natural gas produced water to the Powder River,Wyoming and Montana

The Powder River Basin (PRB) of Wyoming and Montana contains significant coal and coal bed natural gas (CBNG) resources. CBNG extraction requires the production of large volumes of water, much of which is discharged into existing drainages. Compared to surface waters, the CBNG produced water is high in sodium relative to calcium and magnesium, elevating the sodium adsorption ratio (SAR). To mitigate the possible impact this produced water may have on the quality of surface water used for irrigation, the State of Montana passed water anti‐degradation legislation, which could affect CBNG production in Wyoming. In this study, we sought to determine the proportion of CBNG produced water discharged to tributaries that reaches the Powder River by implementing a four end‐member mixing model within a Bayesian statistical framework. The model accounts for the ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr, δ¹³C_DIC, [Sr] and [DIC] of CBNG produced water and surface water interacting with the three primary lithologies exposed in the PRB. The model estimates the relative contribution of the end members to the river water, while incorporating uncertainty associated with measurement and process error. Model results confirm that both of the tributaries associated with high CBNG activity are mostly composed of CBNG produced water (70–100%). The model indicates that up to 50% of the Powder River is composed of CBNG produced water downstream from the CBNG tributaries, decreasing with distance by dilution from non‐CBNG impacted tributaries from the point sources to ~10–20% at the Montana border. This amount of CBNG produced water does not significantly affect the SAR or electrical conductivity of the Powder River in Montana. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Influence of the surface microlayer on the flux of nonconservative trace gases (CO,H2, CH4, N2O) across the ocean-atmosphere interface

Gas exchange experiments were conducted in the tropical Atlantic Ocean during a ship expedition with FS Meteor using a small rubber raft. The temporal change of the mixing ratios of CO, H₂, CH₄ and N₂O in the headspace of a floating glass box and the concentrations of these gases in the water phase were measured to determine their transfer velocities across the ocean-atmosphere interface. The ocean acted as a sink for these gases when the water was undersaturated with respect to the mixing ratio in the headspace. The transfer velocities were different for the individual gases and showed still large differences even when normalized for diffusivity. Applying the laminar film model, film thicknesses of 20 to 70 m were calculated for the observed flux rates of the different gas species. When the water was supersaturated with respect to atmospheric CO, H₂, CH₄ and N₂O, the transfer velocities of the emission process were smaller than those determined for the deposition process. In case of H₂ and CH₄, emission was even not calculable although, based on the observed gradient, the laminar film model predicted significant fluxes at the air-sea interface. The results are interpreted by destruction processes active within the surface microlayer.     

Production of N2O,CH4, and CO2 from soils in the tropical savanna during the dry season

Emissions of N₂O, CH₄, and CO₂ from soils at two sites in the tropical savanna of central Venezuela were determined during the dry season in February 1987. Measured arithmetic mean fluxes of N₂O, CH₄, and CO₂ from undisturbed soil plots to the atmosphere were 2.5×10⁹, 4.3×10¹⁰, and 3.0×10¹³ molecules cm^-2 s^-1, respectively. These fluxes were not significantly affected by burning the grass layer. Emissions of N₂O increased fourfold after simulated rainfall, suggesting that production of N₂O in savanna soils during the rainy season may be an important source for atmospheric N₂O. The CH₄ flux measurements indicate that these savanna soils were not a sink, but a small source, for atmospheric methane. Fluxes of CO₂ from savanna soils increased ninefold two hours after simulated rainfall, and remained three times higher than normal after 16 hours. More research is needed to clarify the significance of savannas in the global cycles of N₂O, CH₄, CO₂, and other trace gases, especially during the rainy season.     

Characteristics of ionic components in precipitation in Kitakyushu City,Japan

Precipitation samples were collected by filtrating bulk sampler in Kitakyushu City, Japan, from January 1988 to December 1990. Volume weighted annual mean of pH was 4.93, but the pH distribution indicated that most probable value lay in the range pH 6.0–6.4. Volume weighted annual mean concentrations of major ionic components were as follows; SO ₄ ^2– : 84.2, NO ₃ ^– : 28.1, Cl^–: 86.3, NH ₄ ⁺ : 45.5, Ca²⁺: 63.3, Mg²⁺: 27.0, K⁺: 3.4, Na⁺: 69.0 µ eq l^–1. The highest concentrations of these ionic components were observed in winter and the lowest occurred in the rainy season. The ratio of ex-SO ₄ ^2– /NO ₃ ^– exhibited the lowest ratio in summer, and the highest ratio in winter. Good correlations were obtained between Cl^– and Na⁺, ex-SO ₄ ²⁺ and ex-Ca²⁺, NO ₃ ^– and ex-Ca²⁺, and NH ₄ ⁺ and ex-SO ₄ ^2– , respectively. However, no correlation between Cl^– and Na⁺ with Ca²⁺ was observed. The relationship of H⁺ with (ex-SO ₄ ^2– + NO ₃ ^– ) - (ex-Ca²⁺ + NH ₄ ⁺ ) indicated positive correlation.     

矿山地理信息系统中的空间和时间四维数据模型

现有的许多地理信息系统（GISs）一般都没有考虑时间这一维数据。本文依据矿山的特点和需求，提出了能满足空间和时间要求的GIS的概念。针对传统数据模型所存在的缺点，以及根据处理历史数据所具有的特点，提出了一种用于矿业开发的空间和时间综合四维数据模型。这种模型通过采用四维空间线性编码技术，可大大减少数据存贮所需的辅助操作。为了适应综合四维数据处理的需要，笔者研究出了一种新的拓扑结构——四维空间和时间因素的拓扑关系。     

Identification and occurrence of novel C36–C54 3,4-dialkylthiophenes with an unusual carbon skeleton in immature sediments

A series of novel long-chain 3,4-dialkylthiophenes (C₃₆–C₅₄) was identified in a number of sediments ranging from Pleistocene to Cretaceous. The identifications were based on mass spectral characterisation, desulphurisation and mass spectral data of synthesised model compounds. These organic sulphur compounds are probably formed by sulphur incorporation into mid-chain dimethylalkadienes with two methylenic double bonds. These putative precursor lipids are unprecedented and may be considered rather unusual. The distribution of 3,4-dialkylthiophenes in sediments varies considerably with the depositional palaeoenvironment, indicating that these compounds have a potential as molecular markers reflecting changes in palaeoenvironment.