近40年中国区域的气候型变化与北半球大气环流特征10年际时空变化的关系

根据１８００－１９８９年（１１０年）的资料，分析研究了新加坡地区月平均和年平均降雨量的一些特征。主要结论是：新加坡年平均降雨量存在准２－６年和１８年的周期振荡；亚洲季风以及ＥＮＳＯ对新加坡降雨量有明显的影响。新加坡年雨量的谷值出现在西南季风期而峰值在东北季风期。在Ｅｌ Ｎｉｎｏ年，新加坡降雨量多为负距平；而在反Ｅｌ Ｎｉｎｏ年，新加坡降雨量多为正距平。     

赤道东太平洋海温与长江下游地区降水异常的相关分析

本文采用最大熵谱分析方法揭示了赤道东太平洋海温和长江下游地区降水均存在3-4年和准两年的周期性振荡特征。且通过时滞相关分析发现两者均存在显著的相关关系,并以降水滞后海温约4个月的正相关最为明显。在此基础上利用一个多级数字滤波器对两者的逐月距平序列进行了高通、低通和带通滤波,并对两者在不同时间尺度上的滤波分量进行时滞相关分析,结果发现只是在2-4年的时间尺度上两者相关最为密切,并以降水滞后海温4-5月的正相关最为显著。     

Numerical Simulation of Regional Short-Range Climate Anomalies

With the high-speed development of numerical weather prediction, since the later 1980’s, the prediction of short-range climate anomalies has attracted worldwide meteorologists’ attention. What the so called short-range re-fers to the time scale from one month to one season or more. In dealing with the problem of short-range climate pre-diction, two points are needed noticing: one is the basic research to explore or investigate the mechanism of variability of the slow varying components which mainly include internal dynamics of extratropics, external forcings and tropical dynamics, and the other is the modeling efforts to simulate the process of the long-term evolution of the signal which include the improvement of model quality, stochastic prediction and the air-sea-coupled model (Miyakoda et al.,1986). Previous researches on the numerical prediction of short-term climate anomalies are mostly concentrated in the analysis of variables with global spatial scale, especially the global general atmospheric circulation analysis.As to the simulation or prediction of regional short-term climate anomalies, there exist many difficulties and problems. Though some meteorologists are devoting themself to this field, up to now, they have not reached satisfac-tory results. As a primary effort, by using the 2-level general atmospheric circulation model developed in the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP-AGCM) (Zeng et al., 1989), and taking the year of 1985 as a case, a numerical simulation of regional short-term climate change is completed. We pay high attention to the predictand of anomalous summer rainfall in the Yangtze River and Yellow River valleys, especially its month-to-month variation.     

中国东部近百年的雨量变化

本文用279个气象测站的年雨量资料得到中国东部(100°E以东)1891—1988年大范围平均雨量资料序列.对代表性进行了检验表明:序列在1921年以后能较好地反映大范围气候旱涝状况,而1920年以前则代表性较差.从雨量变化看中国东部的气候在近百年期间是干湿交替出现的,可以分成六个时段.在近四五十年中雨量有减少的趋势,前期雨量偏多,后期从60年代中期以来雨量持续偏少.而且这种变化与北半球副热带其他地区有同相变化的关系.在50年代以前副热带地区雨量的变化却没有明显的同相关系.     

Hydraulics of sediment-laden sheetflow and the influence of simulated rainfall

Laminar sheetflows, transporting sediment at their capacity rates, both with and without rainfall disturbance, were investigated. Values of flow depth and relative submergence were very small. In the flows without rainfall, measured velocities exceeded the predictions of the smooth-surface, clear-water laminar model by an average of 12 per cent. Reduced flow resistance due to high sediment concentrations may explain this result. Velocities in the rainfall-disturbed flows were not significantly different from the predictions of the smooth-surface, clear-water model, and the velocity reduction due to rainfall was about 12 per cent. Although the uniformity of rainfall intensity under the single-nozzle rainfall simulator is high, variation of momentum and kinetic energy fluxes along the 1-5 m long flume was significant. The rainfall angle of incidence was highly correlated with deviations from expected flow velocities in the upper and lower sections of the flume.     

Slope-induced changes in channel character along a gravel-bed stream: The Allt Dubhaig,Scotland

Changes in channel character along a small river in the Scottish Highlands are described using measurements in seven reaches over a 3 km length with no significant tributaries but a decline in slope from 0.02 to 0.00015 because of local baselevel control. This decline in slope is associated with rapid downstream fining of the gravel bed followed by an abrupt transition to a sand bed. The channel pattern alters progressively rather than abruptly, in the sequence (1) near-braided, (2) meandering with active point-bar chutes, (3) meandering with active outer-bank talweg, (4) stable equiwidth sinuous. The changes in channel pattern and hydraulic geometry are predicted better by rational approaches based on critical shear stress or other physical concepts than by purely empirical discriminant or trend equations. Measurements in five reaches confirm a downstream decrease in shear stress and the amount and calibre of bedload. It is argued that the downstream changes in channel character in this stream are induced by profile concavity inherited from deglacial conditions, are typical of many streams in mountainous areas and can be understood in terms of slope-induced changes in hydraulic properties.     

北京平原区基岩井水位的年动态特征及其成因分析

系统阐述了北京平原区１０口地震地下水位动态观测井及其水位年动态特征，主要分析了降雨与开采对年动态特征的影响，讨论了大同－阳高地震前后某些井水位长期异常的信度     

运用人工神经网络作汛期降水预报

本文提出汛期降水预报的人工神经网络方法，并选择一组标样进行了具体分析，预报成功率达100％，结果表明，该方法性能良好，可望成为汛期降水预报的有效手段。     

The influence of soil properties on the erodibility of Belgian loamy soils: A study based on rainfall simulation experiments

Twenty soils from the Leuven region were tested in the laboratory with a rainfall simulator. Their texture varied from loam to loamy sand. On the basis of the results obtained, they were classified as a function of the runoff and splash erodibility. For every soil, several properties were determined and tentatively used to explain the classifications based on the runoff and splash erodibility. Significant negative correlations were found between silt content, aggregate stability, C_5–10 index, water content at saturation, and cohesion on the one side and erodibility on the other; a positive correlation was found between sand content and erodibility.     

Cloud tracking using satellite data for predicting the probability of heavy rainfall events in the Mediterranean area

The use of cloud tracking techniques and storm identification procedures is proposed in this paper with the aim of predicting the evolution of cloud entities associated with the highest rainfall probability within a given meteorological scenario. Suitable algorithms for this kind of analysis are based on the processing of digital images in the thermal infrared (IR) band from geostationary satellites: a selection of such algorithms is described in some detail together with a few real case applications. Three heavy rainfall events have been selected for this purpose with reference to the extreme meteorological situation observed during Fall 1992 and 1993 over the Mediterranean area. A window from 30 to 60 °N and from 20 °W to 30 °E has been identified for the analysis of data from the radiometer on board the ESA Meteosat platform. In conclusion, the suitability of cloud tracking techniques for predicting the probability of heavy rainfall events is discussed provided that the former are associated with proper modeling of small scale rainfall distribution.