一次副热带高压边缘上大暴雨的中尺度特征分析

文章利用常规和自动气象站观测资料、卫星、闪电定位、雷达资料及NCEP分析资料,对2014年5月24—25日赣西地区致灾大暴雨的中尺度对流条件和对流系统的演变特征进行了分析。结果表明：（1）高空槽东移、副热带高压边缘暖湿气流加强,以及冷空气影响,构成了此次大暴雨的天气背景条件。（2）地面中尺度辐合线是导致MβCS发展及加强的重要因子;多个结构密实、边界光滑的MβCS在赣西地区长时间维持,导致相应地区出现持续强降水天气;此次大暴雨过程中TBB≤-62℃的冷云云团位置和强度对地面降水有很好的指示作用,尤以TBB≤-72℃的中心区与强降水中心区吻合最好。（3）此次暴雨过程5 min雨量分布与地闪数的分布较重合,地闪跃增时刻在地面降水增大前出现,提前时间约10 min左右。（4）雷达径向速度图上的中尺度涡旋是导致此次暴雨发生的重要因素之一;在赣西地区存在显著的径向风辐合特征,且低空强西南风急流上叠加深厚径向风辐合区,有利于降水的加强和维持;另外在动力辐合和山地地形共同作用下,强劲的偏南风急流携带充沛水汽在赣西地区汇合,导致该地区出现连续性强降水。（5）最大雷达回波强度的变化对地面5 min雨强的变化有辅助参考,但预示性不明显;雷达风廓线产品对地面强降水的发生有较好的预报辅助作用,在此次大暴雨过程中该产品对赣西地区强降水预报辅助作用的“提前量”达2 h。     

一次重庆特大暴雨过程的中尺度分析

利用NCEP格点再分析资料、地面实况资料、TBB资料以及雷达资料对2011年7月6 7日重庆大暴雨过程进行了分析研究。结果表明,此次暴雨过程中切变线附近发展起来的中尺度对流系统是暴雨产生的直接原因,且从动力、热力、水汽条件以及能量等方面分析表明重庆东北部已具备暴雨发生的有利条件。通过雷达产品的分析可知,两个阶段降水的中尺度特征不同:第一阶段降水,径向速度场上出现逆风区,对应逆风区的回波较强,雨强较大,且垂直风廓线VWP显示高空有偏西偏南的强风速带下传,从而形成较深厚的西南气流风场;第二阶段降水,径向速度场上出现强度不对称的"牛眼"结构,存在风速辐合,同时VWP显示中低层有深厚的冷空气楔入,使暖湿空气抬升,降水在经过短暂的减弱后再次加强。     

一次多弓状中尺度雨带的成因机理及其与水平涡度的关系

用WRF中尺度数值模式、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、多普勒雷达观测资料等,对2018年5月5日发生在我国华中地区的一次多弓状雨带降水过程的形成机理及其与水平涡度的关系进行分析发现:雨带发生在切变线南侧的西南气流中,多弓状雨带出现前,大尺度高低层气旋式曲率的水平涡度和对流有效位能为降水提供了有利于上升运动的背景场。弓状雨带最初形成在对流不稳定和低层气流辐合条件下,局地强降水引发的下沉运动使中低层大风出现,大风中心南侧反气旋式的环流与背景场中的西南气流汇合构成了短波槽,尾部雨带出现在短波槽中,弓状头部生成于北侧的气旋式风场切变中,大风中心相较南北两侧更快的移速使雨带中部向前侧凸起。流场上的短波槽发生在700 hPa以下,在西南气流的背景场下,该槽向前后两侧的双向传播是多弓状雨带形成的重要触发因子。中尺度弓状雨带附近低层的水平涡度在强盛期、减弱期和消散期有着明显不同的结构特征;而在高层,雨带发展时和强盛期都为气旋式水平涡度控制,减弱期多为反气旋式水平涡度控制。      

山东省线状中尺度对流系统与多单体风暴的合并特征

利用济南多普勒天气雷达产品和华北区域雷达拼图等资料,普查了2012—2016年影响山东的线状中尺度对流系统(linear mesoscale convective system,LMCS),分析了LMCS与多单体风暴的合并方式以及合并后的演变趋势等特征,得到如下几条结论：1)LMCS(A)与多单体风暴(B)有A追B,A扩展,A、B相向和B追A四种合并方式;2)LMCS与多单体风暴合并的临界距离为30 km;3)LMCS与多单体风暴合并后,强度增强或维持,尺度增大,生命史延长,长轴将可能转向;4)LMCS与多单体风暴合并时,其本身合并部分将减弱,多单体风暴合并进入LMCS,成为LMCS的一部分;5)合并是雷暴的传播运动造成的;6)63.3%的合并案例会产生雷暴大风、冰雹或强降水灾害,雷暴大风灾害出现的概率最大。     

2016年河南省一次大范围强对流天气成因分析

基于Himawari-8卫星资料、雷达监测资料、区域自动站和常规观测资料及ERA-Interim再分析资料,对2016年6月5日河南省大范围强对流天气的环流背景、触发条件及对流系统演变特征进行了研究。结果表明:华北冷涡背景下,高空冷平流配合低层暖脊发展、对流有效位能值激增,为中尺度对流系统发展提供了不稳定条件,地面辐合线、冷池是触发机制。河南省西南部位于高能区、不同温湿性质气团交绥区,中高层干冷空气侵入、中层以下干绝热递减率为风雹天气提供了可能;河南省中部、河南省南部位于大气可降水量大值区,深厚的湿层、较低的抬升凝结高度有利于产生强降水。高层辐散、低层辐合的抽吸作用导致豫西南上升运动强盛,雷暴高压产生的变压风增强了动力抬升,中小尺度动力辐合促使强对流回波发展。风雹天气产生于中尺度对流系统前侧云顶亮温梯度大值区,强降水出现在云顶亮温低值中心附近。雷达产品分析表明,强回波悬垂、三体散射与快速移动的弓形回波、阵风锋和后侧入流急流对提前预警冰雹、雷暴大风有很好的指示意义。925 hPa 12 h显著增温区、对流有效位能高值区和冷池出流与暖空气交绥区是强对流发展的潜势区,湿球温度0℃层高度与冰雹关系密切。     

Particle export within cyclonic Hawaiian lee eddies derived from Pb–Po disequilibrium

Particle export from the upper waters of the oligotrophic ocean may play a crucial role in the global carbon cycle. Mesoscale eddies have been hypothesized to inject new nutrients into oligotrophic surface waters, thereby increasing new production and particle export in otherwise nutrient deficient regimes. The E-Flux Program was a large multidisciplinary project designed to investigate the physical, biological and biogeochemical characteristics of cold-core cyclonic eddies that form in the lee of the Hawaiian Islands. There, we investigated particle dynamics using ²¹⁰Pb–²¹⁰Po disequilibrium. Seawater samples for ²¹⁰Pb and ²¹⁰Po were collected both within (IN) and outside (OUT) of two cyclones, Noah and Opal, at different stages of their evolution as well as from the eddy generation region. Particulate carbon (PC), particulate nitrogen (PN) and biogenic silica (bSiO₂) export fluxes were determined using water-column PC, PN, and bSiO₂ inventories and the residence times of ²¹⁰Po. PC and PN fluxes at 150 m ranged from 1.58±0.10 to 1.71±0.16 mmol C m⁻² d⁻¹ and 0.22±0.02 to 0.30±0.02 mmol N m⁻² d⁻¹ within Cyclones Opal and Noah. PC and PN fluxes at OUT stations sampled during both cruises were of similar magnitudes, 1.69±0.16 to 1.67±0.16 mmol C m⁻² d⁻¹ and 0.30±0.03 to 0.26±0.03 mmol N m⁻² d⁻¹. The bSiO₂ fluxes within Cyclone Opal were 0.157±0.010 mmol Si m⁻² d⁻¹ versus 0.025±0.002 mmol Si m⁻² d⁻¹ at OUT stations. These results of minimal PC and PN export, but significant eddy-induced bSiO₂ fluxes, agree very well with other studies that used a variety of direct and indirect methods. Thus, our results suggest that using elemental inventories and residence times of ²¹⁰Po is another independent and robust method for determining particle export and should be investigated more fully.     

Mesoscale eddies off Peru in altimeter records: Identification algorithms and eddy spatio-temporal patterns

Relatively little is known about coherent vortices in the eastern South-Pacific along the Peruvian coast, even with regard to basic facts about their frequency of occurrence, longevity and structure. This study addresses these issues with nearly 15 years of relatively high-resolution satellite altimetry measurements.We first compare two distinct automated methods for eddy identification. The objective validation protocol shows that the rarely-used geometrical or “winding-angle method”, based on the curvature of the streamline functions, is more accurate than the commonly-used “Okubo–Weiss algorithm”, which defines a vortex as a simple connected region with values of Okubo–Weiss parameter weaker than a given threshold.We then investigate vortices off Peru using more than 20,000 mesoscale eddies identified by the winding-angle method. Coherent eddies, characterized by a high ratio of vorticity to deformation rate, are typically formed along the coast and propagate westward at 3–6 cm s⁻¹. The vortices have a mean radius of 80 km, increasing northward, and are most frequently observed off of Chimbote (9°S) and south of San Juan (15°S). The mean eddy lifetime is about 1 month, but if eddies survive at least 2 months, the probability for surviving an additional week (or month) is constant at 90% (or 67%). Anticyclonic eddies tend to propagate northwestward whereas cyclonic vortices migrate southwestward. In general, cyclones and anticyclones are similar, except for eddies surviving at least 6 months. In this case, after a similar 3–4 months of radius and amplitude growth, amplitudes (or sizes) decay particularly rapidly for anticyclonic (or cyclonic) eddies. In terms of intensity, cyclonic eddies show a rapid decay during the first 3 months before arriving at a quasi-constant value, whereas anticyclones exhibit steady decline. Finally, eddy temporal variations were examined at seasonal and interannual scales in the “coastal” region favorable to the formation of energetic mesoscale structures. On seasonal scales, eddy activity is maximal in fall and minimum in spring. At interannual scales, the eddy activity index was maximal during the strong El Niño of 1997–1998 but another strong maximum of eddy activity also occurred late in 2004. These temporal variations are probably associated with the intensification of the upwelling thermal front and with the passage of coastal-trapped waves which generate baroclinic instabilities. Further investigation of the mechanisms involved on the eddy genesis is needed.     

深度学习方法预测阿克苏地区冰雹云雷达回波个例分析

利用2021—2022年4—9月阿克苏地区冰雹云的雷达回波资料，基于轨迹GRU模型和GAN模型共同构建一个深度学习的回波外推模型，应用于强对流（冰雹）天气监测预警。采用分阈值和预报时效的评估方法，对深度学习的回波外推模型预测回波的效果进行分析，结果表明：（1）在30 min预测时间内，随反射率阈值增加，临界成功指数（CSI）和命中率（POD）逐渐降低，虚警率（FAR）先降低后升高，FAR在反射率阈值为35dBZ时最低。（2）在反射率阈值为35 dBZ和相同外推时效的情况下，基于深度学习的回波外推模型和光流法相比，CSI提高0.05~0.15，POD提高0.05~0.15，FAR降低0.05~0.12。（3）在预测反射率阈值为35 dBZ的强对流单体移动路径方面，基于深度学习的回波外推模型与TITAN法相比，预测的单体移动路径会更接近实况单体移动路径。     

Effects of the air–sea coupling time frequency on the ocean response during Mediterranean intense events

The near-sea surface meteorological conditions associated with the Mediterranean heavy precipitation events constitute, on a short time scale, a strong forcing on the ocean mixed layer. This study addresses the question of the optimal time frequency of the atmospheric forcing to drive an ocean model in order to make it able to capture the fine scale ocean mixed layer response to severe meteorological conditions. The coupling time frequency should allow the ocean model to reproduce the formation of internal low-salty boundary layers due to sudden input of intense precipitation, as well as the cooling and deepening of the ocean mixed layer through large latent heat fluxes and stress under the intense low-level jet associated with these events. In this study, the one-dimensional ocean model is driven by 2.4-km atmospheric simulated fields on a case of Mediterranean heavy precipitation, varying the time resolution of the atmospheric forcing. The results show that using a finer temporal resolution than 1 h for the atmospheric forcing is not necessary, but a coarser temporal resolution (3 or 6 h) modifies the event course and intensity perceived by the ocean. Consequently, when using a too coarse temporal resolution forcing, typically 6 h, the ocean model fails to reproduce the ocean mixed layer fine scale response under the heavy rainfall pulses and the strong wind gusts.     

On model validation for meso/submesoscale currents: Metrics and application to ROMS off Central California

ROMS with horizontal grid spacing of 3.5 km for the region off Central California was compared to RAFOS float observations and satellite altimetry on meso/submesoscales. The approach introduced and used two new metrics for model-data comparison, as well as suggested how to calculate these metrics for different spatio-temporal scales. The first metric consisted of the first two moments of exit time and was used to compare ROMS against RAFOS float observations at mid-depths (between 300 m and 350 m). Exit time is the time a float launched at a point takes to leave a domain for the first time. The second metric was spectral entropy and was used to estimate how well ROMS reproduced variability of the sea surface height (SSH) anomaly field extracted from an AVISO data set (1992–2007) for specified temporal and spatial scales. Calculations showed that ROMS reproduced the mid-depth mesoscale/submesoscale currents next to the coast in a very accurate manner (low-order exit time statistics of floats were reproduced by ROMS with an accuracy better than 95%); but ROMS overestimated the speed of westward drift of floats by as much as 20–30% at distances greater than 350 km from the coastline. ROMS predicted the variability of the mesoscale (100–400 km) SSH anomaly field for temporal scales of 1–12 months with a reasonable accuracy. A wavelet transform modulus maxima technique applied to the spectral entropy of SSH anomaly also demonstrated good agreement between ROMS and satellite altimetry for mesoscales characterized by singular exponents and multi-fractal spectra for 1–12 month time scales.