1885~2000年长江中下游梅雨特征量的统计分析

该文分析了1885~2000年长江中下游梅雨特征量的基本统计特征及其相互关系，在此基础上研究了梅雨较长时间尺度的变化特征。结果发现:①梅雨量的大小与梅雨期的长短和出梅日期的早晚为显著的正相关；②梅雨的主要周期为3 a、6 a和8 a，它们分别与低纬100 hPa高度场、热带系统以及全球陆地温度的变化有关；③控制入梅、出梅和梅雨期6 a左右周期的气候因素是相同的，而3 a左右的周期可能受到不同气候因素的影响；④长江中下游梅雨在近116年期间，经历了6个不同的气候阶段。     

2003年异常气候对清徐葡萄的影响

气候对葡萄生长发育的影响十分关键，以光照、温度和降水三要素为主。利用清徐地面气象资料，根据葡萄各生育阶段对气候资源的需求特点，比照该时期年内的实际气候状况，着重分析年度内气候异常与葡萄产量下降、品质降低之间的关系，并就如何减缓气候对葡萄生产的不利影响进行初步探讨。     

内蒙古大青山地区构造新样式初探

内蒙古大青山地区侏罗纪盆地中发育有断层相关褶皱，有十分清晰的断层传播褶皱，断层转折褶皱等构造样式。断层相关褶皱轴向呈东西向展布，形成褶皱的地层是早侏罗世右拐群煤系地层，表明该褶皱至少在煤层形成后，受南北向挤压应力作用形成。研究这一构造样式，对这一地区的推覆构造、盆山耦合研究具有重要地质意义。     

湖北新春花岗岩类锆石SHRIMP年龄:大别山造山带内弱变质—未变质晋宁期花岗岩类的发现

蕲春花岗质杂岩体包括斑状二长花岗岩和花岗岩两部分,它们之间在化学性质上存在着很大的差异,前者表现为高Al_2O_3(15.73％)、相对高CaO(2.46％)、Na_2O含量明显高于K_2O(Na_2O/K_2O=1.27),尤以强烈亏损重稀土元素和极强的轻、重稀土元素分馏程度[(La/Yb)_N=46.8]为特征而类似于太古宙高Al_2O_3的TTG岩石。而后者则以较低的Al_2O_3含量(14.05％)、贫CaO(0.82％)、K_2O含量明显高于Na_2O(Na_2O/K_2O=0.81)为特征,轻、重稀土元素的分馏程度[(La/Yb)_N=10.89]也较片麻状二长花岗岩中弱得多。两类岩石中锆石的U-PbSHRIMP年龄分别为824.6±17.6 Ma和784±20 Ma,该时代与大别山造山带内花岗片麻岩的原岩形成年龄类似。大别山造山带内弱变质-未变质晋宁期花岗岩的出现表明扬子板块印支期向北俯冲时,该花岗质杂岩处于俯冲板片的后缘,可代表造山带内扬子基底的原地露头。而岩体周围的高压变质杂岩应是折返上来的无根构造岩片,大别山造山带内高压-超高压变质杂岩的出露不是整体性抬升剥蚀的结果。     

黄河流域天然径流量突变性与周期性特征

突变性和周期性是水文时间序列的两个重要特征。黄河流域面积广阔，各区域水文水资源系统演变规律各不相同，它们的突变和周期变化及其形成的物理机制遍异，因此系统分析各区域水资源突变性和周期性特征及其影响机制具有重要意义。把黄河流域划分为15个区域，计算出各区域1951—1998年的年天然径流量系列。利用Mann-Kendall非参数检验方法检测黄河流域各区域年天然径流量的突变年份，结果表明各区域的突变年份不完全一致，主要在1953—1955年、1979—1983年、1991—1993年等发生了突变，这些突变与北半球气候突变具有一致性，且由于下垫面改变、人类活动等影响而复杂化。利用Morlet小波分析各区域年天然径流量的变化周期，发现主要存在3～4a、7～9a、11a的周期，形成这些周期的物理因子有太阳黑子、海—气相互作用和下垫面因素等。通过分析黄河流域主要产流区不同时段小波系数变化，发现20世纪80年代之后年径流量主要以短周期变化。     

Comparative study on CO_2 emissions from different types of alpine meadows during grass exuberance period

1IntroductionTherisingatmosphericgreenhousegaseswerebelievedtobetheprimarycauseofglobalclimatechange(Tettetal.,1999;Crowley,2000).Amongthegreenhousegases,theconcentrationofatmosphericcarbondioxidehasincreasedfrom280ppmsincepre-industrialtimestocurrent355ppm,whichaccountedfor50%ofthetotalgreenhouseeffect(Nefteletal.,1985;Friedlietal.,1986;Rodhe,1990;Fanetal.,1998).ElevatedCO2hasamarkedeffectonterrestrialecosystemprocesses(Melilloetal.,1996).TheQinghai-TibetPlateau,thelargestgeomorphologica…     

Small inflation sources producing seismic and infrasonic pulses during the 2000 eruptions of Miyake-jima, Japan

During the 2000 activity of Miyake-jima volcano, Japan, we detected long period seismic signals with initial pulse widths of 1-2 s, accompanied by infrasonic pulses with almost the same pulse widths. The seismic signals were observed from 13 July 2000, a day before the second summit eruption. The occurrences of the seismic signals were intermittent with a gradual increase in their magnitudes and numbers building toward a significant explosive eruption on 18 August. After the eruption, the seismic and infrasonic events ceased. The results of a waveform inversion show that the initial motions were excited by an isotropic inflation source beneath the south edge of the caldera at a depth of 1.4 km. On the other hand, the sources of the infrasonic pulses were located in the summit caldera area. The times at which the infrasonic pulses were emitted at the surface were delayed by about 3 s from the origin times of the seismic events. It is suggested that small isotropic inflations excited seismic waves in the crust and simultaneously caused acoustic waves that traveled in the conduit and produced infrasonic pulses at the crater bottom. Considering the observed time differences and gas temperatures emitted from the vent, the conduit should have been filled with vapor mixed with SO₂ gas and volcanic ash. The change of the time differences between the seismic and infrasonic signals suggests that the seismic source became shallower within half a day before the August 18 explosive eruption. We interpret the source process as a fragmentation process of magma in which gas bubbles burst and quickly released part of the pressure that had been sustained by the tensional strength of magma.     

Statistical Analysis on the Corner Period of Site-Related Design Spectra

INTRODUCTIONFromTJ1 1 74 ,theseismicdesignforbuildingshasbeenbasedontheaccelerationresponsespectruminChina (HuYuxian ,1 988) .ThevalueofTgoftheresponsespectrumvariesbecauseofdifferentsiteclassesanddifferentearthquakeenvironments .Designresponsespectrainc…     

Stochastic bivariate time series models of waves in the North Sea and their application in simulation-based design

In this paper, we present and evaluate three long-term wave models for application in simulation-based design of ships and marine structures. Designers and researchers often rely on historical weather data as a source for ocean area characteristics based on hindcast datasets or in-situ measurements. The limited access and size of historical datasets reduces repeatability of simulations and analyses, making it difficult to assess the sampling variability of performance and loads on marine vessels and structures. Markov, VAR and VARMA wave models, producing independent long-term time series of significant wave height (H_s) and spectral peak period (T_p), is presented as possible solutions to this problem. The models are tested and compared by addressing how the models affect interpretation of design concepts and the ability to replicate statistical and physical characteristics of the wave process. Our results show that the VAR and VARMA models perform sufficiently in describing design performance, but does not capture the physical process fully. The Markov model is found to perform worst of the tested models in the applied tests, especially for measures covering several consecutive sea states.     

A 10-year wave energy resource assessment and trends of Indonesia based on satellite observations

Wave energy resource assessment and trends around Indonesian's ocean has been carried out by means of analyzing satellite observations. Wave energy flux or wave power can be approximated using parameterized sea states derived from satellite data. Unfortunately, only some surface parameters can be measured from remote sensing satellites, for example for ocean surface waves: significant wave height. Others, like peak wave period and energy period are not available, but can instead be estimated using empirical models. The results have been assessed by meteorological season. The assessment shows clearly where and when the wave power resource is promising around Indonesian's ocean. The most striking result was found from June to August, in which about 30–40 kW/m(the 90 th percentile: 40–60 kW/m, the 99th percentile: 50–70 kW/m) wave power energy on average has been found around south of the Java Island. The significant trends of wave energy at the 95% level have also been studied and it is found that the trends only occurred for the extreme cases, which is the 99th percentile(i.e.,highest 1%). Wave power energy could increase up to 150 W/m per year. The significant wave heights and wave power have been compared with the results obtained from global wave model hindcast carried out by wave model WAVEWATCH III. The comparisons indicated excellent agreements.