新疆西南部一次局地对流性暴雨成因分析

利用常规地面和探空气象资料、NCEP逐6h1°×1°的再分析资料和(CINRAD-CC)多普勒雷达探测资料,对2012年7月19日新疆阿图什罕见的短时对流性暴雨形成原因进行了诊断分析。结果表明:此次天气是在南疆低涡有利的环流背景下、低层中尺度低涡促进上升运动及触发不稳定能量释放产生的;冷空气的入侵是造成对流扰动发展的重要原因,同时地面小尺度系统对触发不稳定能量释放也有一定的作用;涡散场的配置、垂直速度、低层偏东急流和强不稳定能量满足了对流发生的基本条件,而较强的垂直风切变则使风暴明显增强;从喀什探空订正图来看,修正后的探空资料中各要素对开展强对流潜势预报有很好的指示意义,有待进一步总结验证;对多普勒雷达资料的分析表明,此次强降水具有强回波、强的垂直风切变、大的垂直液态水含量和较高回波顶高等,与强对流天气的发生发展及落区有较好的对应关系。     

一次江淮气旋复杂降水相态特征及成因分析

本文应用常规探空资料、地面观测资料、欧洲中心细网格(0.25°×0.25°)数值预报初始场资料和NCEP/NCAR 1°×1°再分析资料分析了山东一次江淮气旋降雪过程的复杂相态特征,并初步分析了成因。结论如下:(1)山东省2014年2月16—17日的雨雪天气过程,降水相态多样性和相态转化复杂性是主要特点,表现为同一时刻雨、雪和雨夹雪三种相态共存,郯城站降水相态逆转(由雨夹雪转雨再转雪),鲁东南地区降雪同时鲁西南地区降雨的"东雪西雨"现象。(2)在系统发展不强的江淮气旋降雪过程中,鲁中山区相对高海拔地区夜间强烈的辐射降温和山脉迎风坡的动力抬升作用均会造成边界层温度的降低,后期对流层低层为东北风控制时,除鲁中山区外,其迎风坡东麓或东北麓(潍坊地区)出现固态降水可能性也较大,一般情况下,地面2 m温度为1~2℃,1 000 hPa温度为0℃左右,925 hPa温度为-3℃左右,可出现固液共存降水现象。(3)相态逆转现象的发生与江淮气旋发展阶段和气温日变化两个因素紧密相关。0℃层在925 hPa上下的状态是一种临界状态,可产生雨夹雪或雨,但0℃层高度下降不是由雨转雪的充分条件,还需考察冷平流发展情况。(4)当江淮气旋生成地偏东(位于长江口附近),且发展不强烈时,山东若受其影响产生降水,后期上游如有新系统发展,可能与气旋共同影响山东,造成复杂相态的江淮气旋降雪过程。     

夏季热带北大西洋海温异常对西北太平洋热带气旋生成的影响

利用1979—2012年西北太平洋热带气旋最佳路径资料,Hadley中心的海温资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料等,研究了夏季(6—10月)热带北大西洋海温异常与西北太平洋热带气旋(Tropical Cyclone,TC)生成的关系及其可能机制。结果表明,夏季热带北大西洋海温异常与同期西北太平洋TC生成频次之间存在显著的负相关关系。热带北大西洋海温的异常增暖可产生一对东—西向分布的偶极型低层异常环流,其中气旋性异常环流位于北大西洋/东太平洋地区,反气旋异常环流位于西北太平洋地区。该反气旋环流异常使得TC主要生成区的对流活动受到抑制、低层涡度正异常、中低层相对湿度负异常、中层下沉气流异常,这些动力/热力条件均不利于TC生成。此外,西北太平洋地区低层涡旋动能负异常,同时来自大尺度环流的涡旋动能的正压转换也受到抑制,不能为TC的生成和发展提供额外能量源。反之亦然。     

Population genetic diversity and structure of a dominant tropical seagrass,Cymodocea rotundata,in the Western Pacific region

Cymodocea rotundata is an ecologically important tropical pioneer seagrass species distributed in the Indo‐Pacific region. The population genetic diversity and structure of this species were analysed at 46 sites spanning the Philippines, Ryukyu Islands (northern limit) and Hainan Island, by using microsatellite simple sequence repeat (SSR) markers. Analyses revealed the persistence of C. rotundata likely relies on local population dynamics and fitness influenced by environmental gradients, with sexual reproduction prevalent in the Philippines while the Ryukyu and Hainan populations were predominantly established by clonal spread. Analysis of molecular variance showed significant genetic differentiation (P < 0.001) among three geographic regions: the Philippines, Ryukyu and Hainan. Furthermore, the mean fixation index value was very high (F_ST = 0.36), indicating poor dispersal potential or limited gene flow. Allelic richness and heterozygosity of C. rotundata was comparable in the Philippines and Ryukyu Islands populations. More private alleles were found in the Philippines and excess heterozygotes in the Ryukyu Islands. STRUCTURE analysis revealed that the Ryukyu and Hainan populations were mosaics of admixed alleles of individuals from the Philippines. An assignment test suggested that recruitment occurs from the Northeast Philippines to Ryukyu Islands. These results suggest that the Philippine populations are tropical seagrass hotspots and perhaps the origin of the populations in the Ryukyu and Hainan Islands. This scenario is most likely driven by the Kuroshio Current and island integration events during plate tectonic activities. The Philippine Archipelago is considered of high importance for conservation objectives and management plan of seagrasses. Likewise, the Ryukyu Islands are also important in terms of conserving regional diversity because locally adapted genotypes have important evolutionary potential in the face of environmental change.     

海洋上层暖水在热带气旋迅速增强中的作用:基于台风威马逊(1409)的个例研究

在登陆海南岛之前,台风威马逊在南海北部从热带风暴级别迅速增强成为超强台风。观测数据的分析结果显示,海洋上层的异常暖水在威马逊的迅速增强过程中扮演了重要的角色。威马逊期间,南海北部的海表面温度相比于气候态海表面温度暖很多。这部分异常暖水为威马逊提供了更多的能量,从而导致了威马逊的迅速增强。数值模拟结果进一步证明,南海北部的暖水在台风威马逊的迅速增强过程中起重要作用。如果没有这团异常暖水的影响,威马逊只增强25 hPa,仅为有暖水影响条件下增强程度的58.1%。     

北大西洋大青鲨渔业生物学初步研究

大青鲨(Prionace glauca)是金枪鱼延绳钓渔业中最主要的兼捕鱼种之一,作为海洋生物链的顶端物种对海洋生态系统的稳定性和多样性起到了重要作用。作者根据中国金枪鱼渔业科学观察员在北大西洋海域(3°~55°N,15°~40°W)采集的2 112尾大青鲨数据,按不同性别对其渔业生物学特征进行初步研究。结果表明:雌、雄大青鲨的优势叉长组分别为180~220 cm、190~230 cm,雄性叉长均值显著大于雌性,雌、雄性比符合1︰1;大青鲨叉长-全长、尾凹长-全长的线性关系分别为L_F=0.8008L_T+7.3361,L_P=0.7576L_T–1.8479;北大西洋热带海域(3°~13°N)兼捕的大青鲨群体组成以大个体为主(180~240 cm),冰岛附近海域(48°~51°N)兼捕的大青鲨群体组成以小个体为主(100~210 cm);大青鲨叉长和质量关系式为W_R=7×10~(–6)L_F~(2.9994);大青鲨肝脏为性腺的发育提供能量,成熟个体的肝质量指数显著小于未成熟个体;热带海域兼捕的大青鲨以性成熟个体为主(96.9%),冰岛海域兼捕的大青鲨以未成熟个体居多(77.1%);50%雌性性成熟个体对应的叉长为178.7 cm,50%雄性性成熟个体对应叉长为173.6 cm;雌性怀仔大青鲨的叉长与其怀仔数量线性关系为L_S=0.419×L_F–49.7(R~2=0.3905),幼仔雌雄性比符合1︰1;胃含物中以沙丁鱼和鱿鱼出现频率最高。作者的研究有助于更好地了解北大西洋大青鲨的生物学特征,为区域性渔业管理组织评估大青鲨种群资源状态提供数据参考。     

西太平洋暖池研究综述

西太平洋暖池（Western Pacific Warm Pool）是全球海温最高的海域,汇聚了巨大的热能,在地球气候系统中具有非常重要的作用。本文综述了近30年来有关西太平洋暖池的研究进展,包括西太平洋暖池的维持机制、在不同时间尺度西太平洋暖池的变异特征和物理机制,以及西太平洋暖池的观测和数值模拟等领域的研究进展。西太平洋暖池的维持是现有地形下大气过程和海洋过程相互作用导致的,在季节内到世纪尺度均存在很强的变化。其中：季节内变化的驱动机制主要包括与大气季节内振荡(Madden Julian Oscillation)相关的对流和海表面热通量变化,以及海洋波动等海洋动力过程;季节变化主要是太阳辐射的季节变化导致;在年际尺度上,西太平洋暖池作为El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation的一部分而振荡具有显著年际变化;太平洋代际振荡（Pacific Decadal Oscillation）和大西洋代际振荡（Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation）驱动着西太平洋暖池的年代际变化;世纪尺度的变化显示全球变暖背景下西太平洋暖池存在扩张趋势。人类对西太平洋暖池的系统观测始于海洋观测卫星的使用,随后历经WCRP/TOGA、TAO/TRITON、TOGA-COARE、WOCE、Argo、SPICE、NPOCE等多个观测计划,极大促进了西太平洋暖池的研究。但截止到第五次耦合模式比对计划（Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5）,多数气候模式仍未能克服热带模拟偏差,对西太平洋暖池的模拟效果较差,表明在西太平洋暖池动力学的理解和模拟方面仍有较大进步空间。     

黑龙江省两次温带气旋暴雪过程对比分析

利用多种资料对黑龙江省两次由江淮气旋和蒙古气旋合并引发的暴雪过程的水汽、热动力条件和中尺度特征进行了对比分析。结果表明：（1）两次暴雪过程都发生在北支槽和短波槽合并、北支槽北部有冷涡的背景下,850 hPa上低涡合并促使江淮气旋和蒙古气旋合并;气旋合并后,低空急流为降雪提供了充足水汽,强暖平流使气旋爆发性发展,导致降雪加强。（2）两次降雪过程都表现出逗点云系的合并发展,"1211 "暴雪过程中高层形成涡旋偏西,700 hPa低涡东部偏南风引导气旋北上西折,低空急流和地形共同作用使暖湿空气强烈辐合上升,产生对流云,暴雪发生在A类逗点云系的头部,降雪强度大,范围广;"1412"暴雪过程高空槽低涡位置偏东,700 hPa低涡东部西南风始终引导气旋向东北方向移动,近地面层具有冷垫,暴雪主要发生在B类气旋逗点云系头部西侧中低云团中,降雪范围和强度较"1211"过程小。（3）低层（0.3 km）冷空气侵入和中高层（5.5 km）转为偏北风对判断降雪开始和结束有很好的表征意义。（4）冷涡前部强高压脊使冷涡移动缓慢,从而延长了降水的持续时间,气旋移动路径与高压脊伸展方向密切相关。     

基于CWRF的中国近海热带气旋集合模拟及其对物理参数化方案的敏感性研究

为评估CWRF模式的降尺度能力和其热带气旋模拟对物理参数化方案的敏感性,本文利用ERI再分析资料驱动CWRF在30km网格上对1982-2016年中国近海热带气旋开展了一次集合模拟.结果表明:CWRF与ERI均能模拟出热带气旋的季节变化和年际变化形势且均存在低估,但相较ERI,CWRF的降尺度技术和集合模拟可以再现更多的热带气旋,显著减少低估.年际变化结果提升最为明显,它对积云方案最为敏感,其次是边界层,陆面和辐射方案,对云和微物理方案较弱.该研究为应用CWRF理解和预报热带气旋提供了参考.     

The Key Supply Source of Long-Distance Moisture Transport for the Extreme Rainfall Event on July 21, 2012 in Beijing

In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and meteorological observation data were used to research the long-distance moisture transport supply source of the extreme rainfall event that occurred on July 21, 2012 in Beijing. Recording a maximum rainfall amount of 460 mm in 24 h, this rainstorm event had two dominant moisture transport channels. In the early stage of the rainstorm, the first channel comprised southwesterly monsoonal moisture from the Bay of Bengal (BOB) that was directly transported to north China along the eastern edge of Tibetan Plateau (TP) by orographic uplift. During the rainstorm, the southwesterly moisture transport was weakened by the transfer of Typhoon Vicente. Moreover, the southeasterly moisture transport between the typhoon and western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) became another dominant moisture transport channel. The moisture in the lower troposphere was mainly associated with the southeasterly moisture transport from the South China Sea and the East China Sea, and the moisture in the middle troposphere was mainly transported from the BOB and Indian Ocean. The control experiment well reproduced the distribution and intensity of rainfall and moisture transport. By comparing the control and three sensitivity experiments, we found that the moisture transported from Typhoon Vicente and a tropical cyclone in the BOB both significantly affected this extreme rainfall event. After Typhoon Vicente was removed in a sensitivity experiment, the maximum 24-h accumulated rainfall in north China was reduced by approximately 50% compared with that of the control experiment, while the rainfall after removing the tropical cyclone was reduced by 30%. When both the typhoon and tropical cyclone were removed, the southwesterly moisture transport was enhanced. Moreover, the sensitivity experiment of removing Typhoon Vicente also weakened the tropical cyclone in the BOB. Thus, the moisture pump driven by Typhoon Vicente played an important role in maintaining and strengthening the tropical cyclone in the BOB through its westerly airflow. Typhoon Vicente was not only the moisture transfer source for the southwesterly monsoonal moisture but also affected the tropical cyclone in the BOB, which was a key supply source of long-distance moisture transport for the extreme rainfall event on July 21, 2012 in Beijing.