Monitoring the Kuroshio Extension with Dynamically Constrained Synthesis of the Acoustic Tomography, Satellite Altimeter and in situ Data

A finite-difference quasigeostrophic (QG) model of an open ocean region has been employed to produce a dynamically constrained synthesis of acoustic tomography and satellite altimetry data with in situ observations. The assimilation algorithm is based upon the 4D variational data interpolation scheme controlled by the model's initial and boundary conditions. The data sets analyzed include direct and differential travel times measured at the array of five acoustic transceivers deployed by JAMSTEC in the region of the Kuroshio Extension in 1997, Topex/Poseidon altimetry, CTD soundings, and ADCP velocity profiles. The region monitored is located within the area 27.5°–36.5°N, 143°–155°. The results of assimilation show that mesoscale variability can be effectively reconstructed by five transceivers measuring direct and reciprocal travel times supported by relatively sparse in situ measurements. The misfits between model and data lie within the observational error bars for all the data types used in assimilation. We have compared the results of assimilation with the statistical inversion of travel time data and analyzed energy balances of the optimized model solution. Energy exchange between the depth-averaged and shear components of the observed currents reveals a weak decay of the barotropic mode at the rate of 0.2 ± 0.7⋅10⁻⁵ cm²/s³ due to topographic interaction. Mean currents in the region are unstable with an estimate of the available potential energy flux from the mean current to the eddies of 4.7 ± 2.3⋅10⁻⁵ cm²/s³. Kinetic energy transition has the same sign and is estimated as 2.8 ± 2.5⋅10⁻⁵ cm²/s³. Potential enstrophy is transferred to the mesoscale at a rate of 5.5 ± 2.7⋅10⁻¹⁸ s⁻³. These figures provide observational evidence of the properties of free geostrophic turbulence which were predicted by theory and observed in numerical experiments. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Spatio-temporal variability of small copepods (especially Oithona plumifera) in shallow nearshore waters off the south coast of South Africa

Although small copepods are one of the main dietary sources for many commercially important fish, their role in the pelagic trophic dynamics has traditionally been underestimated due to the methodology commonly used in plankton sampling. Temporal variation in abundance of adults and nauplii of small copepods (particularly Oithona plumifera) in nearshore waters on the south coast of South Africa was investigated fortnightly over 14 months at site (km) and location (100 m) scales. Sampling was within <500 m of the shore, where depth was ca. 10 m, using vertical hauls of an 80-μm mesh plankton net from 1 m above the seabed to the surface. Twenty-seven adult copepod taxa were recorded, but Oithona spp. was consistently the most abundant. Taxon richness was 7–19 on each sampling occasion. There was strong temporal variation (Oithona varied between 0 and 2300 m⁻³), but much of this was short-term variability (e.g. between consecutive sampling sessions), with no seasonality or other long-term discernable patterns. There were periods of consistently low numbers, but very high numbers often followed samples with low abundances. Nor was there spatial structure at the location scale, though numbers differed between sites. Despite considerable variability at the location scale within sites, Kenton consistently showed higher densities than High Rocks. Separate analyses, with Bonferroni adjustment, showed that this difference was significant on eight out of 21 occasions for Oithona, six for other pelagic copepods and three for nauplii. This suggests that hydrodynamics favour aggregation of plankton at Kenton. A high degree of short-term variability, with a tendency for aggregation of small zooplankton at certain sites has implications for both pelagic processes and food-web links between the benthic and pelagic environments.     

Abundance of the introduced seastar, Asterias amurensis, and spatial variability in soft sediment assemblages in SE Tasmania: Clear correlations but complex interpretation

The northern Pacific seastar, Asterias amurensis, was first collected in southeast Tasmania in 1986. Mistaken for the endemic asteroid Uniophora granifera, its true identity was not realised until 1992. It is now a conspicuous predator in soft sediment habitats in this region, and is considered a major threat to native assemblages and commercial species. We examined the structure of soft sediment assemblages at different spatial scales in southeast Tasmania, and correlated spatial variation in community composition with seastar abundances. We found that the structure of soft sediment assemblages is highly variable at a range of spatial scales from metres to tens of kilometres. Clear differences in the composition of assemblages and abundances of major taxa were detected between areas with and without seastars and between areas with low and high seastar densities. However, the nature of these patterns suggests that they are more likely due to differences in sediment characteristics than due to impacts of the seastar. Thus, spatial differences in soft sediment assemblages might have been erroneously attributed to seastars without detailed information on important physical factors such as sediment characteristics. A second survey, using larger sampling units (1 m²) but across a more limited spatial extent, targeted bivalves and heart urchins that were identified as important prey of the seastar in observations of feeding and in experimental studies. Large-scale patterns of abundance and size structure were consistent with seastar effects anticipated from small-scale experimental and feeding studies for some, but not all, species. While the field survey ultimately provided evidence about the presence or absence of seastar impacts at large-scales, the identification of key ecological variables in experimental and feeding studies proved crucial to both the design and interpretation of patterns observed in the large-scale surveys. Overall, this work highlighted the necessity to consider multiple lines of evidence rather than relying on a single ‘inferential’ test, in the absence of pre-impact data.     

Optimum Sample Size to Detect Perturbation Effects: The Importance of Statistical Power Analysis – A Critique

Abstract. The current article describes statistical power analysis as an efficient strategy for the estimation of the optimum sample size. The principle aim is constructively to criticise and enrich the results presented by Mouillot et al. (1999) , who estimate the optimum sample size for evaluating possible perturbations. The authors did not make any reference to statistical power analysis, even though their objective clearly went beyond a simple stock evaluation to assess management strategies in a particular marine ecosystem. Surprisingly, they proposed (a priori) an ANOVA design to test a hypothesis considering both space and temporal scales. However, the authors did not cover important topics related with power analysis and the precautionary principle, both used into environment impact assessment programmes for marine ecosystems. Based on their results and on statistical power analysis, it is demonstrated that the variability (dispersion statistics), a key factor they used to estimate the sample size, is less relevant than the magnitude of perturbation (effect size). Therefore, a greater effort must be devoted to estimate the effect size of a particular phenomenon rather than a desired variability.     

Surface circulation of the Levantine Basin: Comparison of model results with observations

The eastern Mediterranean (Levantine Basin) hydrography and circulation are investigated by comparing the results of a high-resolution primitive equation model with observations. After a 10-year integration, the model is able to reproduce the major water masses and the circulation patterns of the eastern Mediterranean. Comparisons with the POEM hydrographical observations show good agreement. The vertical distribution of the water masses matches that of the observations quite well in terms of monthly mean. The model surface circulation is in agreement with circulation schemes derived from recent observations. Some well-known mesoscale features of the upper thermocline circulation are also realistically reproduced. In agreement with satellite observations, the model shows that high-energy mesoscale eddies dominate the upper thermocline circulation in the southern and the central parts of the Levantine Basin. Most of the Atlantic Water follows the north African coast and forms a strong coastal jet near the Libyan coast rather than forming the Mid-Mediterranean Jet described by several authors. The sub-basin circulation shows a strong seasonal signal. A strong and stable current flows along the isobaths in winter, becoming weaker and with more meanders in summer. The mesoscale eddies throughout the whole basin are more energetic in summer than in winter.     

南沙群岛海域混合层深度季节变化特征

基于南沙群岛海域综合科学考察11个航次的实测资料,研究了南沙群岛海域的混合层深度季节变化特征。研究结果表明,南沙群岛海域混合层深度存在明显的季节变化,并且与季风和海表热通量的变化密切相关。春季,风速较小且风向不稳定,海面得到的净热通量全年最大,上层水体层结稳定,混合层深度较小;夏季,南海西南季风盛行,上层为反气旋式环流,海面得到的净热通量减少,混合层呈加深的趋势;秋季,海面净热通量继续减少,混合层深度达到最大值;冬季,东北季风驱动下形成的上层气旋式环流引起深层冷水的上升,限制了混合层的加深。     

Shoreline variability via empirical orthogonal function analysis: Part I temporal and spatial characteristics

Empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) or principal components were used to extract the significant modes of shoreline variability from several data sets collected at three very different locations. Although EOFs have proven to be a valuable tool in the analysis of nearshore data, most applications have focused on the ability of the technique to describe cross-shore or profile variability. Here however, EOFs were used to help identify the dominant modes of longshore shoreline variability at Duck, North Carolina, the Gold Coast, Australia, and at several locations within the Columbia River Littoral Cell in the U.S. Pacific Northwest. In part one of this analysis, characteristic patterns of shoreline variability identified by the EOF analysis are described in detail. At each site, the dominant modes consisting of the first four eigenfunctions were found to describe nearly 95% of the total shoreline variability. At both Duck and the Gold Coast, several interesting longshore periodic features suggestive of sand waves were identified, while boundary effects related to natural headlands and navigational structures/entrances dominated the Pacific Northwest data sets.     

东、黄海海表面温度季节内变化特征的EOF分析

基于1998—2004年的TRMM/TMI卫星遥感海面温度(SST)数据,在初步分析东、黄海SST的季节分布特征的基础上,采用EOF方法分析了SST的季节内变化特征,进而对SST季节内变化的可能机制进行了探讨。EOF分析获得的前4个模态的累积方差贡献率为57.07%,其结果基本反映了东、黄海SST变化的主要物理过程。其中,EOF的第一模态的方差贡献率占30.17%,其空间模态揭示了以东海北部为中心的、整个海域SST变化趋于一致的特征,这一模态的显著变化周期为6.3周;第二模态的方差贡献率占14.36%,其空间模态呈现东南海域与西北海域SST的反相变化趋势,显著变化周期为8.7周和10.6周;第三模态的方差贡献率占7.02%,其空间SST变率最大的区域位于黄海海域,显著变化周期为6.8,8.7,10.2周等;第四模态的方差贡献率占5.52%,其空间SST变率最大的区域位于东、黄海近海,显著变化周期为6.8周。东、黄海SST季节内变化与此海区大气中的季节内振荡是紧密相关的。     

Water mass formation variability in the intermediate layer of the east sea

Long-term variability in the intermediate layer of the eastern Japan Basin has been investigated to understand the variability of water mass formation in the East Sea. The simultaneous decrease of temperature at shallower depths and oxygen increasing at deeper depths in the intermediate layer took place in the late 1960’s and the mid-1980’s. Records of winter sea surface temperatures and air temperatures showed that there were cold winters that persisted for several years during those periods. Therefore, it was assumed that a large amount of newly-formed water was supplied to the intermediate layer during those cold winters. Close analysis suggests that the formation of the Upper Portion of Proper Water occurred in the late 1960’s and the Central Water in the mid-1980’s.