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81.
INTRODUCTIONAlargenumberofstudiesindicatethatthelithosphericstresslimit (peakstrength)iscoincidentwiththefocaldepthofstrongearthquakes (Goetzeetal.,1 979;Braceetal.,1 980 ;Kirby ,1 980 ;Meissner ,etal.,1 982 ;Sibson ,1 982 ;Chenetal.,1 983;Smithetal.,1 984 ;andMeissner,1 996 ) ,whicharelocatedinrelativelyhigh velocityzonesabovelow velocityzonesinthecrust.Butthereexistsdifferenttheoriesconcerningthereasonsforthecoincidence ,especiallyconcerningthecontrollingfactorsaboutthefocaldepthofstr…  相似文献   
82.
加卸载响应比──一种新的地震预报方法   总被引:57,自引:2,他引:57       下载免费PDF全文
引入一个能够定量反映非线性系统不稳定程度的新参数──加卸载响应比Y,这一参数可以用于地震及其它地质灾害的预测.对里氏震级4-8级地震进行后验性震例检验的结果表明,80%以上的震例,在地震前Y值均显著大于1.这一方法已预测出几次发生在中国大陆的中强地震及1994年1月17日的美国洛杉矶6.6级地震.  相似文献   
83.
李志锦  纪立人 《气象学报》1995,53(2):138-147
从一般的谱展开方程出发,详细推导了误差增长方程。结果表明误差增长率主要由准确解的切线性方程所决定,扰动非线性平流作用不产生方差意义下的误差增长,而只起分配误差的作用。轨线不稳定是产生误差增长的根本原因。文中提出了计算轨线不稳定增长率的方法。这一方法也适合于时间演变状态不稳定问题的讨论,对Lorenz系统的轨线不稳定计算表明了理论分析的正确及其意义。  相似文献   
84.
High-porosity granular materials such as loose sands can implode when subjected to compressive stresses. The mechanism of deformation is diffuse in that the jump in the strain rate tensor has three independent eigenvalues (full rank), in contrast to the jump in the strain rate tensor for a deformation band-type instability that has one eigenvalue (rank one). Recently, the mechanism of volume implosion has been studied in the context of material instability. In this paper we move one step further and consider the effect of a volume constraint associated with the presence of fluids in the pores of granular materials that have a tendency to implode. The upshot of this constraint is that at the onset of liquefaction the solid matrix deforms in a nearly isochoric fashion at the same time that the pore fluid pressure increases. The corresponding eigenmode (e-mode) is represented by jumps in the strain rate tensor and rate of pore fluid pressure. The framework presented in this work is used to analyze the onset of liquefaction instability in very loose Hostun RF sand tested in undrained triaxial compression and extension.  相似文献   
85.
We consider saltwater–freshwater fingering instabilities in a saturated porous medium. In the first part, we present three-dimensional results obtained from a laboratory experiment using non-invasive imaging. In the second part, we define a set of model problems in which the performed laboratory experiments can be ranged in. Due to its highly non-linear behavior and inevitable modeling errors, a detailed numerical reproduction of the physical concentration measurements cannot be expected. Nevertheless, four criteria have been identified, two quantitative and two qualitative, which facilitate a substantiated comparison of the physical experiment and the numerical simulation. With respect to these criteria a high degree of similarity could be observed. The use of these features allows a deeper understanding of the physical processes and the influence of the initial conditions.  相似文献   
86.
台风“海棠”特大暴雨数值模拟研究   总被引:12,自引:1,他引:12  
在福建中北部登陆的台风,往往会严重影响浙江,尤其值得注意的是台风引起特大暴雨经常会发生在浙江东南沿海的南雁荡山区和北雁荡山区,2005年在福建省连江黄歧登陆的台风"海棠"(0505)对浙江东南沿海造成严重影响,是这类台风比较典型个例。文中利用非静力模式MM5模拟"海棠"台风在浙东南沿海造成的特大暴雨,模拟结果与实况对比分析表明,模式较好地模拟了台风降水强度和分布,特别是成功模拟出南雁荡山区特大暴雨中心(南部暴雨区)和雁荡山区特大暴雨中心(北部暴雨区);运用高时空分辨率模拟资料对特大暴雨成因进行诊断分析表明,南部暴雨区涡度低层到高层向西倾斜结构和北部暴雨区高低空强辐散辐合的耦合结构有利于形成暴雨区强烈上升运动,环境风场垂直切变产生次级环流进一步加强暴雨区上升运动;暴雨区持续不稳定层结和特殊水汽输送通道为特大暴雨提供热力条件和水汽条件。最后对浙南闽北地形对台风特大暴雨影响进行数值敏感性试验表明,温州南、北雁荡山脉地形等高线与台风水汽输送路径正交是造成特大暴雨的重要原因,地形使暴雨增幅明显,地形越高对暴雨增幅越明显,降水分布更加不均匀。比较台风造成南、北特大暴雨条件,发现两者既有环境风场垂直切变产生次级环流进一步加强暴雨区上升运动、持续不稳定层结以及地形对暴雨增幅作用等相同之处,又有动力结构、维持持续不稳定层结条件以及水汽输送等不同之处。  相似文献   
87.
1980-2010年中国南方雷暴频次的统计特征及其变化   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
李桑  龚道溢 《高原气象》2015,34(2):503-514
利用1980-2010年中国南方20站逐日多时次天气观测资料,统计了雷暴的日、季节、多年变化特征,以及相应的大气物理量和环流特征变化。结果表明:雷暴频次的日变化呈午后到凌晨多,12:00(世界时,下同)频次最高(9%),03:00最低(2%);夏季频次高冬季低,其中7-8月最高(35%),12月至次年1月最低(1%)。20世纪80年代至21世纪初,年际和夏季(7-8月)雷暴频次均呈下降的趋势,分别为-1%·(10a)-1和-3.5%·(10a)-1,21世纪00年代后则有弱的增加趋势。全年统计雷暴日降水占总降水的48%,而在夏季则为64%。全年和夏季雷暴日降水比率的变化,均与雷暴频次的变化有较好的一致性,相关系数分别达0.46和0.71。对应雷暴频次的年际变化,东亚地区大气环流场表现出大尺度的异常变化。雷暴频次偏高时,西太平洋副热带高压异常偏弱,南方对流层中上层有异常的上升运动。同时,从热力不稳定指标上看,夏季异常偏高的全总指数、异常偏高的对流有效位能指数均与夏季雷暴频次显著相关,分别为0.58和0.76。而近30年南方雷暴频次与对应的地面气温存在统计上的关联,但这是否与雷暴热力和动力因子对全球气候变化的响应有关,尚需深入研究。  相似文献   
88.
断层两侧块体宽度不等时断层的不稳定性分析   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2       下载免费PDF全文
以断裂力学和断裂动力学原理为基础,采用复变函数方法,定量讨论了当断层两侧块体尺寸(宽度)不等时,断层体(即合断层的岩石块体)的稳定性.着重考虑断层两侧块体宽度(或高度)以及断裂传播速度对上述不稳定性的效应.这些分析结果对震源观测中发现的低应力降现象做了完好的解释,也对板块构造理论涉及该方面的内容做出补充.  相似文献   
89.
焦明若  张国民 《地震》2001,21(3):21-30
通过对滑动方向相反的含障碍体平行断层失稳破坏岩石破裂实验的应变场时空分布特征的分析,探讨了岩石破坏过程和破坏方式。并且通过对平行断层和障碍体破坏所产生的相互作用和影响的分析,进一步研究了这种滑动方向相反的含障碍体平行断层失稳破坏的增、减震机制,结果表明是一种互为增震机制。最后通过数值模拟技术对实验的破坏过程进行了模拟,证明了实验结果与数值模拟结果一致,说明实验结果具有可靠性。  相似文献   
90.

Oceanic mesoscale eddies which are analogs of well known synoptic eddies (cyclones and anticyclones), are studied on the basis of the turbulence model originated by Dubovikov (Dubovikov, M.S., "Dynamical model of turbulent eddies", Int. J. Mod. Phys. B7, 4631-4645 (1993).) and further developed by Canuto and Dubovikov (Canuto, V.M. and Dubovikov, M.S., "A dynamical model for turbulence: I. General formalism", Phys. Fluids 8, 571-586 (1996a) (CD96a); Canuto, V.M. and Dubovikov, M.S., "A dynamical model for turbulence: II. Sheardriven flows", Phys. Fluids 8, 587-598 (1996b) (CD96b); Canuto, V.M., Dubovikov, M.S., Cheng, Y. and Dienstfrey, A., "A dynamical model for turbulence: III. Numerical results", Phys. Fluids 8, 599-613 (1996c)(CD96c); Canuto, V.M., Dubovikov, M.S. and Dienstfrey, A., "A dynamical model for turbulence: IV. Buoyancy-driven flows", Phys. Fluids 9, 2118-2131 (1997a) (CD97a); Canuto, V.M. and Dubovikov, M.S., "A dynamical model for turbulence: V. The effect of rotation", Phys. Fluids 9, 2132-2140 (1997b) (CD97b); Canuto, V.M., Dubovikov, M.S. and Wielaard, D.J., "A dynamical model for turbulence: VI. Two dimensional turbulence", Phys. Fluids 9, 2141-2147 (1997c) (CD97c); Canuto, V.M. and Dubovikov, M.S., "Physical regimes and dimensional structure of rotating turbulence", Phys. Rev. Lett. 78, 666-669 (1997d) (CD97d); Canuto, V.M., Dubovikov, M.S. and Dienstfrey, A., "Turbulent convection in a spectral model", Phys. Rev. Lett. 78, 662-665 (1997e) (CD97e); Canuto, V.M. and Dubovikov, M.S., "A new approach to turbulence", Int. J. Mod. Phys. 12, 3121-3152 (1997f) (CD97f); Canuto, V.M. and Dubovikov, M.S., "Two scaling regimes for rotating Raleigh-Benard convection", Phys. Rev. Letters 78, 281-284, (1998) (CD98); Canuto, V.M. and Dubovikov, M.S., "A dynamical model for turbulence: VII. The five invariants for shear driven flows", Phys. Fluids 11, 659-664 (1999a) (CD99a); Canuto, V.M., Dubovikov, M.S. and Yu, G., "A dynamical model for turbulence: VIII. IR and UV Reynolds stress spectra for shear driven flows", Phys. Fluids 11, 656-677 (1999b) (CD99b); Canuto, V.M., Dubovikov, M.S. and Yu, G., "A dynamical model for turbulence: IX. The Reynolds stress for shear driven flows", Phys. Fluids 11, 678-694 (1999c) (CD99c).). The CD model derives from general principles and does not resort to any free parameters. Yet, it successfully describes a wide variety of quite different turbulent flows. In the present work we apply CD model to the compressible ocean. The model yields mesoscale eddies generated by the baroclinic instability. The latter, in turn, arises from the nonhorizontal orientation of the surfaces of the constant potential density (isopycnals). The obtained dynamic equations for eddy fields reduce to a vertical eigen value problem, an eigen value real part yielding an eddy radius, while an imaginary part - an eddy drift velocity. The size of the eddy is about 3rd (where rd is the Rossby deformation radius). The eddy dynamics has the following distinctive features: (1) the large scale potential energy feeds the eddy potential energy (EPE) at scales ~ rd , (2) from rd EPE cascades to the smaller scales down to ~ l 1 determined from the condition that the spectral Rossby number Ro(q) ≡ qU'(q)f?1 becomes ~ 1 (q is two-dimensional wave number within an isopycnal surface), (3) at scales ~ l 1 EPE transforms into eddy kinetic energy (EKE) which cascades backwards to the larger scales up to ~ rd , where it transforms back into EPE, thereby closing the energy flux circulation in a wavenumber space, (4) dissipation of the eddy energy (EE) occurs at scales ~ l 1 since at those scales the fluctuating component of the vertical shear is maximal and equals to the Brunt-Vaisala frequency. The latter equality is the well known condition for generating the vertical turbulence which dissipates EE. The model enables to determine all turbulence characteristics, including the horizontal (isopycnal) diffusivity κ h in terms of the large scale mean fields. From the typical values of the latter follow estimates for the parameters of an eddy which agree well with the observational and simulational data: kh ~ 103m2s?1, EKE K ~ 103m2s?1, rd ~ 3 × 104m, lI ~ 10. In what concerns the bolus velocity, it contains additional terms (as compared to the model of Gent and McWilliams (Gent, P.R. and McWilliams, J.C., "Isopycnal mixing in ocean circulation models", J. Phys. Oceanogr. 20, 150-155 (1990)) which result from the eddy fields advection by a mean velocity ū. Since the latter varies with depth, it is inevitable to differ from the eddy drift velocity that produces a shearing force eroding the eddy coherent structures and, therefore, contributing negatively to EE production. This is in contrast with the positive contribution from the GM term (which is due to the baroclinic instability). In those regions where the disruptive action is stronger, there is no eddy generation.  相似文献   
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