GIS analysis to assess landslide susceptibility in a fluvial basin of NW Sicily (Italy)

Landslide hazard assessment, effected by means of geostatistical methods, is based on the analysis of the relationships between landslides and the spatial distributions of some instability factors. Frequently such analyses are based on landslide inventories in which each record represents the entire unstable area and is managed as a single instability landform. In this research, landslide susceptibility is evaluated through the study of a variety of instability landforms: landslides, scarps and areas uphill from crown. The instability factors selected were: bedrock lithology, steepness, topographic wetness index and stream power index. The instability landform densities computed for all the factors, which were arranged in Unique Condition Unit, allowed us to derive a total of three prediction images for each landslide typology. The role of the instability factors and the effects generated by the use of different landforms were analyzed by means of: a) bivariate analysis of the relationships between factors and landslide density; b) predictive power validations of the prediction images, based on a random partition strategy.The test area was the Iato River Basin (North-Western Sicily), whose slopes are moderately involved in flow and rotational slide landslides (219 and 28, respectively). The area is mainly made up of the following complexes: Numidian Flysch clays (19%, 1%), Terravecchia sandy clays (5%, 1%), Terravecchia clayey sands (3%, 0.3%) and San Cipirello marly clays (9%, 0%). The steepness parameter shows the highest landslide density in the [11–19°] class for both the typologies (8%, 1%), even if the density distributions for rotational slides are right-asymmetric and right-shifted. We obtained significant differences in shape when we used different instability landforms. Unlike scarps and areas uphill from crowns, landslide areas produce left-asymmetric and left-shifted density distributions for both the typologies. As far as the topographic wetness index is concerned, much more pronounced differences were detected among the instability landforms of rotational slides. In contrast, the flow landslides produce normal-like density distributions. The latter and the rotational slide landslide areas produce the highest density values in the class [5.5–6.7], despite an abrupt decreasing trend starting from the first class [3.2–4.4], which is generated by the density values of the rotational slide scarps and areas uphill from crowns. The stream power index at the foot of the slopes, which was automatically derived using a GIS-procedure, shows a positive correlation with the landslide densities marked by the maximum classes: [4.8–6.0] for flows, and [6.0–7.2] for rotational slides. The validation procedure results confirmed that the choice of instability landform influences the results of the susceptibility analysis. Furthermore, the validation procedure indicates that: a) the predictive models are generally satisfactory; b) scarps and zones uphill from crown areas are the most diagnostically unstable landforms, for flow and rotational slide landslides respectively.     

基于LS-RSGFD方法优化的横向各向同性(TI)介质一阶qP波高精度数值模拟

为克服各向异性介质弹性波数值模拟中存在着计算量大和波场分离困难等局限,研究了声学近似的VTI介质和TTI介质一阶qP波数值模拟方法.首先对VTI介质弹性波方程进行声学近似,推导了VTI介质一阶qP波方程;然后基于精确的TTI介质频散关系,引入一个包含各向异性控制参数σ的新辅助波场,推导了稳定的TTI介质二阶耦合qP波波动方程,并通过引入波场的伪速度分量,推导了等价的一阶应力-速度形式.结合旋转交错网格有限差分(RSGFD)和基于最小二乘优化的有限差分(LS-FD)两种各具优势的方法,研究了最小二乘旋转交错网格有限差分(LS-RSGFD)方法,并用其数值求解VTI和TTI介质一阶qP波方程,然后通过构造其LS-RSGFD格式,实现了高精度的各向异性介质qP波波场数值模拟.数值模拟结果表明:TI介质一阶qP波方程能够准确地模拟各向异性介质中qP波的运动学特征,引入控制参数σ能够有效地减弱不稳定性问题,保证非均匀TTI介质中qP波场的稳定传播;利用优化的LS-RSGFD方法可以得到高精度的合成地震记录,同时还可以相对地提高计算效率.     

极区中层尘埃等离子体中的尘埃声波研究

基于统计方法的自洽场理论,考虑了带电粒子与中性分子的碰撞以及对尘埃粒子的充电过程,建立了弱电离尘埃等离子体的纵波色散关系.分析了极区中层大气80~90 km高度范围内的尘埃声波的不稳定性.研究表明,极区中层大气中的尘埃声波有不稳定的模式,不稳定的波模对进一步解释极区中层尘埃等离子体的分层结构可能有重要意义.     

Analysis of cyclogenesis parameter for developing and nondeveloping low-pressure systems over the Indian Sea

A cyclone genesis parameter, termed the genesis potential parameter (GPP), for the Indian Sea is proposed. The parameter is defined as the product of four variables, namely vorticity at 850 hPa, middle tropospheric relative humidity, middle tropospheric instability, and the inverse of vertical wind shear. The variables are calculated using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), USA, reanalysis data, averaged within a circle of 2.5° radius around the centre of cyclonic system. The parameter is tested with a sample dataset of 35 nondeveloping and developing low-pressure systems that formed over the Indian Sea during the period 1995–2005. The result shows that there is a distinction between GPP values for nondeveloping and developing systems in more than 85% cases. The composite GPP value is found to be around three to five times greater for developing systems than for nondeveloping systems. The analysis of the parameter at early development stage of a cyclonic storm appears to provide a useful predictive signal for intensification of the system.     

2012年7月北京一次大暴雨过程的湿Q矢量和湿位涡分析

利用NCEP 1°×1°的6 h再分析资料和常规气象观测资料,对2012年7月21日发生在北京地区的一次大暴雨天气过程进行非地转湿Q矢量(Q*)和湿位涡等物理量诊断分析,研究暴雨期间Q*散度、锋生函数和湿位涡的时空分布特征,以及它们与强降水之间的关系。结果表明,Q*在850 hPa高度层上对暴雨表现出良好的诊断特性,冷、暖气流的汇聚加强了锋生作用,强锋生中心出现几小时后即出现暴雨。暴雨区位于Q*辐合区内,Q*散度对6 h后暴雨的落区有很好的指示意义。暴雨落区基本位于MPV1正、负值交界处的等值线密集带上以及MPV2负值区内。暴雨区上空,从近地面到对流层低层的对流性不稳定与条件性对称不稳定同时存在,两者共同作用,这很可能是此次暴雨的中尺度对流系统发生发展的重要条件之一。     

高陡层状土质边坡风蚀失稳过程及机理研究

吐鲁番交河故城台地高陡层状土质边坡的失稳过程受风蚀控制和影响非常典型;在土层组合特征和抗风蚀能力差异以及当地终年多大风的气候特征的共同作用下,坡体土层形成风蚀空腔并在空腔的控制下发生变形破坏.以工程地质定性分析、风洞实验、物理模拟为主要手段,结合数值模拟,分析了该边坡在自然风蚀改造过程中表现出具有特殊性、多样性和阶段性...     

Shear instability and gravity wave saturation in an asymmetrically stratified jet

Motivated by the mean current and stratification structure associated with the equatorial undercurrent (EUC), we examine the stability and wave propagation characteristics of a highly idealized model flow: the asymmetrically stratified jet. This is a parallel shear flow in which the depth-varying current has the sech² form of a Bickley jet. The stratification has a step function structure: the buoyancy frequency takes uniform values above and below the center of the jet, with the larger value occurring below. The spectrum contains three classes of unstable normal modes. Two are extensions of the sinuous and varicose modes of the unstratified Bickley jet; the third has not been described previously. The asymmetric stratification structure allows instabilities to radiate gravity wave energy from the upper flank of the jet to the lower flank, where it encounters a critical layer. From here, wave energy may be reflected, absorbed or transmitted. Absorption results in wave saturation and momentum transfer to the mean flow, in close analogy with the breaking of orographic gravity waves in the middle atmosphere. Transmission beyond the lower flank may partly account for wave signals observed in the deep equatorial oceans. All of these processes exert zonal forces on the jet that alter its speed and shape. The wave structures and associated fluxes developed by the idealized model are compared with observations of the EUC.     

地壳岩石剪切失稳的应力与应变准则

本文建立了岩石体膨胀起点与峰值点之间应力与应变关系的解析表达式,分别给出了其剪切失稳应力与应变准则.考虑到地壳岩石缓慢加载作用使其均匀性指标的减小效应,本文也分别给出了简化的适用于脆性破坏预测的应力与应变准则.实例表明该应变准则可用于崩塌与强震等脆性破坏问题的预测分析.     

500 hPa温度场时间序列的年代际突变过程统计特征

本文利用Logistic 模型,推导出描述均值突变的分段函数,用该函数对可能存在突变的时间序列进行拟合,并结合概率分布理论,确定突变幅度最大的时段即为发生突变的过程,由此确定并分析序列中突变的开始时刻、突变幅度、突变变率、突变持续时间、系统不稳定特性等参数。对全球500 hPa 温度场单点时间序列的突变持续过程展开研究:（1）对突变过程的开始时刻进行统计,发现1956～1959、1970～1979、1986～1994、1994～2004 年开始的突变所占比重较大,几次突变过程中,平均来看除了1986～1994 年开始的突变表现为降温,其余几次突变均表现为增温;并且每次突变时,增温幅度比较大的突变,其变率也较大;（2）从突变先后的空间分布上看,1956～1959、1970～1979 年检测到发生突变的格点在海洋上空的突变偏早、欧亚大陆上空偏晚,而1986～1994 和1994～2004 年突变期间这一情况正好相反;（3）针对每次突变过程中的突变幅度,低纬度区域温度发生突变的变化幅度较小、高纬度区域较大;（4）对突变持续时间的检测结果表明,在全球增暖背景下,完成一次突变的持续时间正在逐渐变短;（5）当系统突变正在进行时,系统的不稳定性较强。