Sequence of instability processes triggered by heavy rainfall in the northern Italy

Northern Italy is a geomorphologically heterogeneous region: high mountains, wide valleys, gentle hills and a large plain form a very varied landscape and influence the temperate climate of the area. The Alps region has harsh winters and moderately warm summers with abundant rainfall. The Po Plain has harsh winters with long periods of subfreezing temperatures and warm sultry summers, with rainfall more common in winter.Geomorphic instability processes are very common. Almost every year, landslides, mud flows and debris flows in the Alpine areas and flooding in the Po flood plain cause severe damage to structures and infrastructure and often claim human lives. Analyses of major events that have struck northern Italy over the last 35 years have provided numerous useful data for the recognition of various rainfall-triggering processes and their sequence of development in relation to the intensity and duration of rainfall. Findings acquired during and after these events emphasise that the quantity and typology of instability processes triggered by rainfall are related not only to an area's morphological and geological characteristics but also to intense rainfall distribution during meteorological disturbances. Moreover, critical rainfall thresholds can vary from place to place in relation to the climatic and geomorphological conditions of the area. Once the threshold has been exceeded, which is about 10% of the local mean annual rainfall (MAR), the instability processes on the slopes and along the hydrographic networks follow a sequence that can be reconstructed in three different phases.In the first phase, the initial instability processes that can usually be observed are soil slips on steep slopes, mud–debris flows in small basins of less than 20 km² in area, while discharge increases substantially in larger stream basins of up to 500 km². In continuous precipitation, in the second phase, first mud–debris flows can be triggered also in basins larger than 20 km² in area. Tributaries swell the main stream, which is already in a critical condition. The violent flow causes severe problems mainly along valley bottoms of rivers with basins up to 2000 km² in area. First bedrock landslides can occur, reaching a considerable area density, with volumes from a few hundred up to about one to two million cubic meters. In continuous precipitation, in the third phase, basins of more than 2000 km² in area reach their first critical stage. River-bed morphology is extensively modified, with erosional and depositional processes which can locally undermine the stability of structures and infrastructures. Waters overflow levees, flooding villages and towns to various widths and depths and sometimes claiming casualties. Some days after an intense rainfall period, large landslides involving the bedrock can still take place. These processes usually cause the movement of very large rock masses. The total duration of rainfall usually has a greater effect on these landslides than does the number of short periods of very intensive precipitation. This sequence cannot be divided into separate phases when the events occur simultaneously because of the presence of intense rainfall pulses and the generation of very diffuse surface runoff. Such situations usually happen during short-lasting heavy summer rainstorms or in late spring, when snow melt combines with intense rainfall. The three-phase sequence has been identified in three severe events that are analysed in this paper: Valtellina (Lombardy) in 1987, Tanaro Valley (Piedmont) in 1994 and Aosta Valley in 2000; but this sequence has also been observed during other events that occurred in northern Italy: in Piedmont in 1968, 1977, 1978, 1993 and 2000; in Lombardy in 1983 and 1992; in the Aosta Valley in 1993.     

基本流场切变对赤道长Rossby波的影响

文中应用赤道β平面近似 ,建立一个简单的斜压大气半地转模式 ,在热力学方程中引入表征基本位温场 (θ)经向分布特征的无量纲参数 σ,对线性化的扰动方程进行了频率分析 ,研究基本位温场经向非均匀分布以及基本气流垂直切变对赤道纬向超长尺度 Rossby波动的影响 ,并指出仅考虑基本气流垂直切变或者基本位温场变化的作用是不合适的。定性分析结果表明 :基本位温场经向温差必然有基本气流垂直切变与其相匹配 ,而基本气流垂直切变将导致赤道长 Rossby波动不稳定并影响其纬向传播速度     

暴雨发生的不稳定条件的试验

本文根据Ｈｏｓｋｉｎｓ所提出的惯性重力波不稳定判据：Ｒｉ＜ｆ／ζａ，结合湿斜压大气的特点，对１９９６年６月２９日０２时发生在我国东部的一次降水过程进行了分析，得出了下列特征：西南低空急流是降水得以产生所需水汽的载体；对流层下部深厚不稳定层结是对流性降水所必须的热力层结条件；该地区对流层下部满足Ｒｉｓｅ＜ｆ／ζａ，６ｈ后该地区惯性重力波不稳定增长。在充足水汽条件下，该地区发生暴雨。     

Instability on a weakening fault

Weakening of a prestressed sawcut in Westerly granite under laboratory condition is accomplished by injecting pressurized fluid into the sawcut. After injection a sequence of stick-slips is observed while the deviatoric stress decreases successively with each stick-slip. On the basis of the experimental observation we develop a model of fault instability due to inhomogeneous and progressive weakening of the fault. According to this model, the fault surface is divided into the slipped and the locked regions, depending on whether or not the local state of stress satisfies the friction criterion. The average shear stress in the slipped region decreases with time and, in order to maintain a quasi-static equilibrium, shear stress in the remaining locked region on the fault surface increases. This situation may last until a critical state of stress on the fault is met, at which a sudden instability (stick0slip) may occur. We suggest that this mechanism of stress transfer may be a viable mechanism of induced seismicity and aftershocks, in addition to the well-known mechanism of a local increase of pore pressure. By comparing the experimental data with model predictions we show that the critical condition for slip instability is when the average shear stress over the locked region becomes equal to the value given by the friction criterion. Thus the friction criterion established for slip on fractures on which the state of stress is macroscopically uniform may also be applicable to fractures on which the stress state is macroscopically heterogeneous.     

OBSERVATIONS ON ESTUARINE FLUID MUD ENTRAINMENT

I. INTRODUCTIONPrediction of mud bed erosion by forcing due to tidal currents usually requires a numerical solution of the advection--dispersion equation for sediment mass transport. Key role is of course played inthis by the bottom boundary conditions defining erosion and deposition fluxes. The issue of erosion isbriefly considered here. noting that it is customary to calculate the rate of erosion as a function of thebed shear stress in excess of the erosion shear strength of the bed (Me…     

岩石错动面的非匀阻性与突发失稳

断层错动面的非匀阻效应是决定失稳型式和是否发震的重要因素之一。实验研究表明:凹凸不平的错动面只有当凹凸部在错动中被铲削至相对平直而使阻力相对均匀的情况下才可能突发失稳,并可用非匀阻系数ζ定量地表示错动面凹凸和非匀阻程度。通过比较锯切面与破裂面凹凸程度的差别,以及二者不同的应力降大小,进一步建立了一种实验确定非匀阻系数的新方法,给出了花岗闪长岩、花岗岩和石英岩破裂面的非匀阻系数与相对不平度的关系.从而为外推判断断层发震的可能性提供了依据     

等离子体片边界层内静电离子束流-密度漂移不稳定性

本文研究了地球磁尾等离子体片边界层内由离子束流和等离子体密度梯度联合作用产生的静电不稳定性.模型等离子体由向尾流动的冷离子束流、向地球流动的暖离子束流和背景暖电子组成,等离子体密度是非均匀的,等离子体β（热压强与磁压强之比值）很小,电子等离子体频率与电子退旋频率之比。ω_e/Ω_e》1.结果表明,斜传播的静电快、慢离子束流-密度漂移模能够被激发。     

陕西关中西北部一次短时强降水过程的成因分析

利用常规气象观测资料、陕西区域自动站观测资料、NCEP 1°×1°再分析资料和卫星雷达探测资料,对2012年8月13日关中西北部一次短时强降水过程的成因进行动力学诊断分析,结果表明:在有利于触发中小尺度系统发生及其发展的条件下造成了本次短时局地强降水,雨区环境大气为低层对流不稳定、中层条件对称不稳定、高层对流不稳定的混合型不稳定层结。从卫星和雷达资料分析显示强降水过程是两个不同的中小尺度系统造成,前期是中β尺度干线、辐合线触发带状对流性降水,后期是中β尺度Ω系统触发圆形状对流性强降水。短时强降水雷达反射率因子呈低质心结构,具有热带降雨型特征。     

Instability in the 3rd Dimension of the Extended Störmer Problem

The problem of motions of charged particles or charged grains of matter in the field of two magnetic dipoles in rotation about a common center are studied by means of computing families of periodic solutions and their stability. Ten such families are found and their stability study shows that only two out of the ten have short arcs of stable members, all with low inclination to the plane of the two dipoles, while the rest of the families consist exclusively of unstable solutions. Hence the impact of adding one dipole to the configuration of the Störmer problem, leads to the conclusion that in the modified system the three-dimensional motions are basically unstable unlike those of the one-dipole case. The model magnetic field used in this study is a first approximation of the Z3model of the magnetic field of Saturn as computed from the Pioneer 11 and Voyager 1 and 2 measurements.