信息增益在地震趋势估计中的应用

从熵中信息增益的定义出发，将地震中的能量和频度作为一个整体考虑，研究了全球１９００－１９９２斫Ｍ≥６．０地震的信息增益。结果表明，强震前有信息增益减小的特点。信息增益方法的引入，为利用中小地震进入地震跟踪预报提供了一个新途径。     

陆地水水质全球变化研究进展

对陆地水水质全球变化研究中的几个问题进行了讨论，包括:陆地淡水水质的全球参比值问题;水质监测的发展及全球淡水水质监测计划;全球淡水水质变化趋势分析。
       

GPS技术在地球科学中的应用和展望

GPS(全球定位系统)能为全球提供高精度、全天候、连续、实时的三维定位、三维测速和时间基准。本文对它在地球科学中的应用和可能的发展作一扼要介绍。其中,包括了它在几何大地测量、物理大地测量、地球动力学、海洋大地测量、测时和授时、工程测量、导航等方面的应用及其展望。     

A Coupled General Circulation Model for the Tropical Pacific Ocean and Global Atmosphere

On the basis of Zeng’s theoretical design, a coupled general circulation model (CGCM) is developed with its characteristics different from other CGCMs such as the unified vertical coordinates and subtraction of the standard stratification for both atmosphere and ocean, available energy consideration, and so on. The oceanic component is a free surface tropical Pacific Ocean GCM between 30oN and 30oS with horizontal grid spacing of 1o in latitude and 2o in longitude, and with 14 vertical layers. The atmospheric component it a global GCM with low-resolution of 4o in latitude and 5o in longitude, and two layers or equal man in the vertical between the surface and 200 hPa. The atmospheric GCM includes comprehensive physical processes. The coupled model is subjected to seasonally-varying cycle. Several coupling experiments, ranging from straight forward coupling without flux correction to one with flux correction, and to so-called predictor-corrector monthly coupling (PCMC), are conducted to show the existence and final controlling of the climate drift in the coupled system. After removing the climate drift with the PCMC scheme, the coupled model is integrated for more than twenty years. The results show reasonable simulations of the annual mean and its seasonal cycle of the atmospheric and oceanic circulation. The model also produces the coherent interannual variations of the climate system, manifesting the observed El Ni?o / Southern Oscillation (ENSO).     

Three－dimensional Global Scale Permanent－wave Solutions of the Nonlinear Quasigeostrophic Potential Vorticity Equation and Energy Dispersion

The three-dimensional nonlinear quasi-geostrophic potential vorticity equation is reduced to a linear form in the stream function in spherical coordinates for the permanent wave solutions consisting of zonal wavenumbers from 0 to n and rn vertical components with a given degree n. This equation is solved by treating the coefficient of the Coriolis parameter square in the equation as the eigenvalue both for sinusoidal and hyperbolic variations in vertical direction. It is found that these solutions can represent the observed long term flow patterns at the surface and aloft over the globe closely. In addition, the sinusoidal vertical solutions with large eigenvalue G are trapped in low latitude, and the scales of these trapped modes are longer than 10 deg. lat. even for the top layer of the ocean and hence they are much larger than that given by the equatorial β-plane solutions. Therefore such baroclinic disturb-ances in the ocean can easily interact with those in the atmosphere.Solutions of the shallow water potential vorticity equation are treated in a similar manner but with the effective depth H = RT / g taken as limited within a small range for the atmosphere.The propagation of the flow energy of the wave packet consisting of more than one degree is found to be along the great circle around the globe both for barotropic and for baroclinic flows in the atmosphere.     

集成奇异谱分析和自回归滑动平均预测日本近海海平面变化

本文从日本沿岸选取了28个验潮站及联测的GPS站,利用奇异谱分析（Singular Spectrum Analysis,SSA）和SSA+自回归滑动平均（Auto Regression Moving Average,ARMA）方法预测了2014—2018年的近海海平面变化和地壳垂直变化.并用同时段的验潮及GPS的实际测量值进行验证,结果显示,SSA+ARMA预测的相对海平面精度为0.0357~0.0607 m,地壳垂直运动的精度为0.0049~0.0077 m,绝对海平面的精度为0.0433~0.0683 m,且三者SSA+ARMA的预测结果均优于只用SSA预测的结果.在此基础上本文利用SSA+ARMA预测了日本沿岸2019—2023年的近海绝对海平面变化,结果显示,2019—2023年的平均海面高较往年（2014—2018）升高0.0353 m,2003—2023年绝对海平面的变化率为0.0039 m·a^-1,预测结果较为理想.     

空间天气学

Birth and new characteristics of 《Space Weather》 and its base—three kind of the global structure are briefly presented in this paper,respectively.     

Combining European Earth Observation products with Dynamic Global Vegetation Models for estimating Essential Biodiversity Variables

ABSTRACT

Global, fast and accessible monitoring of biodiversity is one of the main pillars of the efforts undertaken in order to revert it loss. The Group on Earth Observations Biodiversity Observation Network (GEO-BON) provided an expert-based definition of the biological properties that should be monitored, the Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBVs). Initiatives to provide indicators for EBVs rely on global, freely available remote sensing (RS) products in combination with empirical models and field data, and are invaluable for decision making. In this study, we provide alternatives for the expansion and improvement of the EBV indicators, by suggesting current and future data from the European Space Agencýs COPERNICUS and explore the potential of RS-integrated Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) for the estimation of EBVs. Our review found that mainly due to the inclusion of the Sentinel constellation, Copernicus products have similar or superior potential for EBV indicator estimation in relation to their NASA counterparts. DGVMs simulate the ecosystem level EBVs (ecosystem function and structure), and when integrated with remote sensing data have great potential to not only offer improved estimation of current states but to provide projection of ecosystem impacts. We suggest that focus on producing EBV relevant outputs should be a priority within the research community, to support biodiversity preservation efforts.     

Sensitivity of GPS and GLONASS orbits with respect to resonant geopotential parameters

The Center for Orbit Determination in Europe (CODE) has been involved in the processing of combined GPS/GLONASS data during the International GLONASS Experiment (IGEX). The resulting precise orbits were analyzed using the program SORBDT. Introducing one satellites positions as pseudo-observations, the program is capable of fitting orbital arcs through these positions using an orbit improvement procedure based on the numerical integration of the satellites orbit and its partial derivative with respect to the orbit parameters. For this study, the program was enhanced to estimate selected parameters of the Earths gravity field. The orbital periods of the GPS satellites are —in contrast to those of the GLONASS satellites – 2:1 commensurable (P _Sid:P _GPS) with the rotation period of the Earth. Therefore, resonance effects of the satellite motion with terms of the geopotential occur and they influence the estimation of these parameters. A sensitivity study of the GPS and GLONASS orbits with respect to the geopotential coefficients reveals that the correlations between different geopotential coefficients and the correlations of geopotential coefficients with other orbit parameters, in particular with solar radiation pressure parameters, are the crucial issues in this context. The estimation of the resonant geopotential terms is, in the case of GPS, hindered by correlations with the simultaneously estimated radiation pressure parameters. In the GLONASS case, arc lengths of several days allow the decorrelation of the two parameter types. The formal errors of the estimates based on the GLONASS orbits are a factor of 5 to 10 smaller for all resonant terms. AcknowledgmentsThe authors would like to thank all the organizations involved in the IGS and the IGEX campaign, in particular those operating an IGS or IGEX observation site and providing the indispensable data for precise orbit determination.     

An Artificial Intelligent design for GPS Surveying Networks

Metaheuristic techniques, which are based on ideas of Artificial Intelligence, are among the best methods for solving computationally the GPS surveying network problem. In this paper, the ant colony optimization metaheuristic, which is inspired by the behavior of real ant colonies, is developed to efficiently provide a general framework for optimizing GPS surveying networks. In this framework, a set of ants co-operate together using an indirect communication procedure to find good GPS observation schedules. A GPS surveying network can be defined as a set of stations, co-ordinated by a series of sessions formed by placing receivers on the stations. The problem is to search for the best order in which to observe these sessions to give the best schedule at minimum cost. Computational results obtained by applying the proposed technique on several networks, with known and unknown optimal schedules, prove the effectiveness of the proposed metaheuristic technique to solve the GPS surveying network problem.