Evaluating coastal scenery using fuzzy logic: Application at selected sites in Western Black Sea coastal region of Turkey

Coastal areas of the world are under treat due to the conflicting requirements of functions such as habitation and/or recreation, which affect the strategic asset of coastal scenery itself. Coastal managers, together with planners, need coastal landscape inventories, where the quality of coastal scenery is a part of the inventory. In order to provide an evidence-based approach for sound coastal management decisions, [Ergin et al., 2004] and [Ergin et al., 2006] developed a novel technique ‘coastal scenic evaluation’ (CSE), which addresses the evaluation of coastal scenery. The CSE technique utilizes fuzzy logic to derive values obtained from a checklist of 26 physical and human parameters. The methodology enables the calculation of an evaluation index (D), which categorizes the scenic values of coastal sites into five distinct classes. Using this technique, coastal scenic evaluations were carried out at 34 selected sites on the Western Black Sea coast of Turkey. Based on the calculated D values, a five-class differentiation was obtained for the selected sites, to provide baseline information for any envisaged subsequent management plans for these areas.     

An integrated procedure to evaluate hydrological models

The growing concern for health‐related problems deriving from pollutants leaching is driving national and international administrations to support the development of tools for evaluating the effects of alternate management scenarios and identifying vulnerable areas. Cropping systems models are powerful tools for evaluating leachates under different environmental, social, and management conditions. As percolating water is the transport vehicle for pollutants transport in soil, a reliable evaluation of water balance models is a fundamental prerequisite for investigating pesticides and nitrate fate. As specific approaches for the evaluation of multi‐layer evolution of state variables are missing, we propose a fuzzy‐based, integrated indicator (I_SWC: 0, best; 1, worst) for a comprehensive evaluation of soil water content (SWC) simulations. We aggregated error metrics with others quantifying the homogeneity of errors across different soil layers, the capability of models to reproduce complex dynamics function of both time and soil depth, and model complexity. We tested I_SWC on a sample dataset where the models CropSyst and CERES‐Wheat were used to simulate SWC for winter wheat systems. I_SWC revealed that, in the explored conditions, the global assessment of the two models' performances allowed identification of CropSyst as the best (average I_SWC = 0·441, with a value of 0·537 obtained by CERES‐Wheat), although each model prevailed for some of the metrics. CropSyst presented the highest accuracy (average agreement module = 0·400), whereas CERES‐Wheat's accuracy was slightly worse, although achieved with a simplified modelling approach (average Akaike Information Criterion = − 230·44), thereby favouring large‐area applicability. The non‐univocal scores achieved by the models for the different metrics support the use of multi‐metric evaluation approaches for quantifying the different aspects of water balance model performances. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

输水管网模糊地震可靠性的 Monte Carlo 法分析程序

本文详细介绍了笔者所建议的运用模糊图理论和方法进行城市输水管网的地震可靠性分析途径和计算程序。对于输水管网中每段管道的震害预测,建立了相应的专家系统。在此基础上,定义了管网系统的模糊可靠性,更好地反映了人们对于管道损坏状态估计的模糊性和对可靠性要求上的模糊性。以模糊矩阵来描述输水管网的状态是十分方便的。通过计算模糊矩阵的传递闭包,极易找出最短路、关键段等。由于地震作用和管道抗震能力都是随机的,因此整个管网系统的可靠性分析是藉助Monle Carlo法进行的。以Monle Carlo法对模糊图进行分析,从而得到管网的地震可靠性,这还是首次。用PASCAL和PROLOG编制了在微机上实用的计算机程序,特别是以智能语言PROLOG编制的程序,更有许多特色。由于采用了一些技巧,使在微机上可以分析相当大的系统,为城市抗震防灾工作提供了一个有力的工具。     

建议一个弥补震害资料不足的方法

本文用模糊贴近度原则作类比,提供了一种弥补震害预测时历史地震资料不足的方法,途径是将一个烈度之下的震害经验推广到其他烈度上去用。实践证明,用这种建立在近似推理基础之上的方法推导出来的结果,在总体趋势上和真实情况完全一致。     

地倾斜前兆异常的模糊分析

本文用隶属函数和模糊聚类分析对泰安台和佘山台地倾斜矢量形变异常序列和当地地震序列进行统计研究,计算分析结果对于在统计范围内判别有无地震发生以及估计将会发生的地震震级大小,得到了预期的结果。     

区域河流水质的模糊聚类分析

水作为地表物质迁移的一种溶剂与媒介,尤如人体的“血液”一样,穿行于岩石、土壤与各种生物体之间。一个特定区域范围内的河流水质,不仅受自然因素的控制,而且也受人类社会经济活动的影响。因此,一个区域河流水质的变化过程,就是该区域自然环境特     

深部气层和干层测井模糊综合评判

深部气层和干层的区分是常规测井解释的难题。认识始于实践。本文依据东濮凹陷深层试采资料,建立了两个模式各四个参数的隶属度曲线,进行气层和干层模糊综合评判研究,并用该地区深层试井资料作了检验,效果颇佳。证明模糊综合评判是区分深部气层和干层的一种行之有效的方法。     

地下流体前兆模糊识别

在地震的孕育、发生到发展的过程中，可能会出现多项地下流体观测量不同程度的前兆异常变化，这些异常变化是复杂多样、模糊不清的。引入模糊识别法对一定区域和一定时间段的地下流体观测数据进行了分析和处理，表明模糊识别法可较好地识别和分辨出地下流体前兆的地震异常。     

新疆地震趋势的模糊灰色预测

从模糊数学和灰色系统理论两个不同角度来分析地震事件，把模糊数学的表达方式用于灰色灾变预测ＧＭ（１，１）中，建立了地震预测的模糊灰色模型。用此模型讨论了南北天山四个区（带）的震级序列，在等维情况下，对比了模糊灰色方法与单纯灰色方法的优劣，讨论了影响预测结果的因素，最后给出了不同目标震级下各区（带）的预测值。