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51.
DIAGNOSTIC ANALYSIS AND VERIFICATION OF PREDICTION OF THE TROPICAL PACIFIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES
DURING 1997 ~ 1998 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
By comparing with ENSO events that ever happened in the history, the basic features and probable
causes of the anomalous sea surface temperature of the tropical Pacific Ocean during 1997 and 1998 have been
analyzed diagnostically. It is found that the 1997/1998 El Nino had significant abnormalities and peculiarities. It
differs from the previous El Ni?o events falling into the simple “eastern pattern” or “western pattern”. The
predictions of 1997/1998 El Ni?o event have also been tested with an intermediate ocean-atmosphere coupled
dynamic model. The results show that the skills of the 0~24 lead month forecasts for the warm event are all
above 0.5. The predictions of the mature phase and the later stages of the warm event are better than those of the
beginning phase. 相似文献
52.
Lauren Patterson Marie Urban Aaron Myers Budhendra Bhaduri Eddie Bright Phillip Coleman 《GeoJournal》2007,69(1-2):93-102
Geospatial technologies and digital data have developed and disseminated rapidly in conjunction with increasing computing
efficiency and Internet availability. The ability to store and transmit large datasets has encouraged the development of national
infrastructure datasets in geospatial formats. National datasets are used by numerous agencies for analysis and modeling purposes
because these datasets are standardized and considered to be of acceptable accuracy for national scale applications. At Oak
Ridge National Laboratory a population model has been developed that incorporates national schools data as one of the model
inputs. This paper evaluates spatial and attribute inaccuracies present within two national school datasets, Tele Atlas North
America and National Center of Education Statistics (NCES).
Schools are an important component of the population model, because they are spatially dense clusters of vulnerable populations.
It is therefore essential to validate the quality of school input data. Schools were also chosen since a validated schools
dataset was produced in geospatial format for Philadelphia County; thereby enabling a comparison between a local dataset and
the national datasets.
Analyses found the national datasets are not standardized and incomplete, containing 76 to 90 percent of existing schools.
The temporal accuracy of updating annual enrollment values resulted in 89 percent inaccuracy for 2003. Spatial rectification
was required for 87 percent of NCES points, of which 58 percent of the errors were attributed to the geocoding process. Lastly,
it was found that by combining the two national datasets, the resultant dataset provided a more useful and accurate solution. 相似文献
53.
A probabilistic fog forecast system was designed based on two high resolution numerical 1-D models called COBEL and PAFOG.
The 1-D models are coupled to several 3-D numerical weather prediction models and thus are able to consider the effects of
advection. To deal with the large uncertainty inherent to fog forecasts, a whole ensemble of 1-D runs is computed using the
two different numerical models and a set of different initial conditions in combination with distinct boundary conditions.
Initial conditions are obtained from variational data assimilation, which optimally combines observations with a first guess
taken from operational 3-D models. The design of the ensemble scheme computes members that should fairly well represent the
uncertainty of the current meteorological regime. Verification for an entire fog season reveals the importance of advection
in complex terrain. The skill of 1-D fog forecasts is significantly improved if advection is considered. Thus the probabilistic
forecast system has the potential to support the forecaster and therefore to provide more accurate fog forecasts. 相似文献
54.
55.
根据丘陵浅山地区8个测点低空风速实测资料进行风速廓线拟合,求得风速幂指数,将大气环境质量预测中的风速模式化,用来预测大气污染物的浓度分布。 相似文献
56.
57.
利用1965-1995年天气图和气象观测资料,分析了濮阳市11月份寒潮的时空分布特征、路径及天气形势,确定了预报指标。 相似文献
58.
通过与历史上已发生的ENSO事件的比较,对1997-1998年热带太平洋海温异常的基本特征和可能成因进行了诊断分析,发现1997/1998年E1Nino事件具有显著的异常性和独特性,不同于以往单纯的东部型或西部型E1Nino。对用一个简化海气耦合动力学模式做1998/1998年E1Nino事件的预报进行检验。结果表明该模式对这次暖事件超前0-24个月的预报技巧均在0.5以上,模式对暖事件的成熟位相及以后阶段的预报比对暖事件的开始阶段预报得好。 相似文献
59.
国外灾害遥感应用研究现状 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
灾害遥感(调查和监测)是遥感技术应用及研究的一个重要方面。本文根据大量的资料及笔者在国外参加的工作,对经济发达国家及部分第三世界国家将遥感技术用于灾害监测、预报、预警以及在减少灾害损失方面所进行的主要工作及取得的效益作一概略介绍。 相似文献
60.