一种改进我国汛期降水预测的新思路

1998年1月赤道东太平洋海温为正异常、1月黑潮－西风漂流区海温为负异常、青藏高原冬春积雪为正异常。通过对1998年汛期降水的预测实践分析研究指出，当此三因子同时异常时，利用其中任何一个单因子都难以较好地同时预测出1998年发生在我国长江中下游和东北嫩江流域的多雨区和华北平原的少雨区。而通过EOF分解和动力模式对三因子异常进行综合集成所作的预测和实况基本一致。对多因子异常的综合集成是改进和提高汛期降水预测水平的有效手段，沿着这一新思路，利用EOF筛选出前明显异常的重要因子，选择一个较好的区域气候模式，有希望通过综合集成作出比较可信的预报。     

河南省汛期气候预测概念模型

在河南省6种雨型的基础上，分析了物理要素海温、季风、西太平洋副高及气候因子和河南省汛期降水的关系，给出了河南省汛期降水的气候预测概念模型。通过逻辑推理，可以具体预测雨型。     

内蒙古兴和地区太古宙孔兹岩系变质峰期流体特征

为了查明麻粒岩相变质高峰期的流体特征 ,对研究区太古宙孔兹岩系变质峰期特征矿物夕线石中具负晶形的碳质液相包裹体进行了冷热台显微测温和激光拉曼光谱成分测定。研究表明 ,该类包裹体xH2 O很低 (0mol%～ 17mol% ) ,碳质成分很高 (xCO2 +CH4=70mol %～ 90mol% ) ,密度为0 .94～ 1.0g/cm3 ,相应压力约为 0 .7GPa。流体氧逸度的lg fO2 在 - 14～ - 16之间。研究结果表明 ,丰富的碳质组分不是深部来源的 ,而可能是由孔兹岩系原岩中有机质氧化作用产生。     

不同石墨炉技术对钒原子化信号的影响

研究了钒元素在不同石墨炉技术、不同类型石墨管中的原子吸收曲线，探讨了产生这些差异的根本原因。     

Linking space–time variability of river runoff and rainfall fields: a dynamic approach

Statistical self-similarity in the spatial and temporal variability of rainfall, river networks, and runoff processes has been observed in many empirical studies. To theoretically investigate the relationships between the various time and space scales of variability in rainfall and runoff process we propose a simplified, yet physically based model of a catchment–rainfall interaction. The channel network is presented as a random binary tree, having topological and hydraulic geometry properties typically observed in real river networks. The continuous rainfall model consists of individual storms separated by dry periods. Each given storm is disaggregated in space and time using the random cascade model. The flow routing is modelled by the network of topologically connected nonlinear reservoirs, each representing a link in the channel network. Running the model for many years of synthetic rainfall time series and a continuous water balance model we generate an output, in the form of continuous time series of water discharge in all links in the channel network. The main subject of study is the annual peak flow as a function of catchment area and various characteristics of rainfall. The model enables us to identify different physical processes responsible for the empirically observed scaling properties of peak flows.     

EVOLUTIONAL CHARACTERISTICS OF HYPER－CONCENTRATED FLOW IN BRAIDED CHANNEL OF THE YELLOW RIVER

ＥＶＯＬＵＴＩＯＮＡＬＣＨＡＲＡＣＴＥＲＩＳＴＩＣＳＯＦＨＹＰＥＲ－ＣＯＮＣＥＮＴＲＡＴＥＤＦＬＯＷＩＮＢＲＡＩＤＥＤＣＨＡＮＮＥＬＯＦＴＨＥＹＥＬＬＯＷＲＩＶＥＲ￥ＱＩＰｕ；ＬＩＷｅｎｘｕｅ（Ｓｅｎｉｏｒｅｎｇｉｎｅｅｒ，ＩｎｓｔｉｔｕｔｅｏｆＨｙ...     

长江三峡及邻区地震活动的灰色预测

根据历史地震记载和现今地震观测数据，运用灰色系统理论，建立了长江三峡及邻区下一个地震活跃期及活跃期内可能发生的最大地震的震级的灰色预测模型。预测结果表明，下一个地震活跃期将持续７９ａ，活跃期内的最大地震震级不会超过５．２级。这对三峡地区地震问题的评价与防患提供了重要的依据     

前汛期北江洪水过程水汽汇与河水流量的关系

本文分析了１９８０－１９８４年４－６月和１９９４年６月洪水过程北江流域的大气水汽汇特征及其与河水流量的关系。结果表明：前汛期洪水过程的前期大乞一般连续存在超过一定值的较强水汽汇，时间为１周左右，洪水的发生是强水汽汇连续产生的径流的积累所致；北江流域洪水期水汽汇的极大峰一般比石角站的洪峰流量超前２天左右，本文结果为洪水的预报提供一条新思路。     

Textural analysis and modelling of a flood deposit: River severn,U.K.

Samples of sediment collected from the Severn floodplain between Worcester and Gloucester following the severe flooding in January and February 1990, were analysed for their grain size distribution. The results show that most sand was deposited within 20 m of the channel bank, but that fine sand may contribute to flood sediment across the width of the floodplain. James' (1985) numerical model of overbank sedimentation attempts to predict the transfer of sediment to the floodplain during flooding. Geometrical and hydraulic data relating to the Severn flood are used as input for a computer program of James' (1985) model. The pattern of sediment concentrations predicted by the model was compared with that obtained from statistical analysis of the flood sediment. The patterns were found to be similar, so James' (1985) model was considered to predict in a relative sense the distribution of flood sediment.     

1991年淮河流域农村洪涝灾情分析

本文从灾害系统的概念出发,分析了1991年淮河流域苏皖地区农村洪水的雨情、水情和灾情,并探讨了这次洪水对农村造成严重灾情的原因。