THE 1998 FLOOD OF THE YANGTZE RIVER

1INTRODUCTIONDuringthefloodseasonof1998,anothercatastrophicfloodoccurredinthemiddleandlowerYangtzeRiverfollowingthecatastrophicfloodin1954.Ascomparedwiththe54flood,the1998floodwascharacterizedbythefactsthatthedurationofthehighwaterstagewasmuchlonger,thefloodcontrolwasmuchmoredifficult,andthetotalmanpowerandmaterialresourcesexpelldedintilefloodfightingweremuchmoreenormous.TOsummarizetheexperienceandlessonsfromthefloodissignificanttotilehydraulicengineeringandfloodcontroloftheYangtzeRiver.…     

Theoretical discussion and Monte-Carlo simulations for a Negative Binomial process paradox

The idea of an over-threshold sampling is to retain all the events of a time-series exceeding a given threshold. The probabilistic analysis implies estimating two statistical models, one describing the occurrence of the events (date of the events), the other describing their magnitude (value of the local maximum). These two models are then combined to obtain the distribution of the annual maxima. A well-known result of a Poisson process is that waiting time, defined as the duration between two successive events exceeding the threshold, is exponentially distributed. The assertion that the waiting time of a Negative Binomial process is also exponentially distributed seems to be in obvious contradiction with the Poisson process properties. A theoretical discussion and Monte-Carlo simulations are presented to solve this apparent paradox.     

洪涝风险图的编制与应用——以太湖流域湖西区为例

洪涝风险图的编制,是洪涝平原管理中的一项重要内容,对洪涝平原生产布局和人类经济活动具有指导作用。本文介绍了一种洪涝风险图的编制方法。首先概化平原内河图,用明渠一维非恒定流模拟水流运动,得到各地的水位和流量,比较水位和数学地形模型（ＤＥＭ）的高程,将水位高过ＤＥＭ的地方划为洪涝危险区,本文以太湖流域湖西区为例作出洪涝风险图,并且介绍了洪涝风险图在国民经济部门的应用。     

全球变暖导致洪水风险增加——长江洪水前景分析

近期在很多地方洪水越来越频繁且破坏性更大.20世纪90年代以来全球大洪水造成社会经济财产巨大损失,30次大洪水每次总损失额均超过10×10⁸美元.1990-1998年的9a时间的大洪水爆发的次数比1950-1985年期间Ma大洪水次数还要多.近年来中国大陆也遭受了若干重大洪水灾害(包括1996和1998年两次大的财产损失).与气候变率和变化相关的洪水灾害和易爆发程度的显著增加,这是当前最紧迫的问题.随着气温升高大气中持水量也增加,因此大规模强度的降水的可能性也增大.己观测到高而集中的大降水事件而且这种趋势在未来气候变暖条件下可能增加,大降水事件的增加是洪灾增加的必然条件.当然也有一些其它的非气象因素加剧洪灾的发生,比如土地利用变化(森林砍伐、城市化)导致土壤持水能力下降,径流系数增加;此外,人类占据了洪泛区,可能导致洪水损失增大.另外物质财富在洪泛区的积聚也导致了洪灾损失增加.毫无疑问,由于人类活动和气候的共同作用,未来洪水风险在很多地方可能增加.洪水易爆发程度被认为是暴露系数和调节能力的函数,而且在许多地方所有这些变量都可能增加.而随着暴露系数比人类调节能力增加快,因此洪水易爆发程度增大.然而,要完全从径流变化中区分气候因素导致的强烈自然变率还是直接的人为环境变化是很困难的.由于使用不同的假定情景和不同的气候模型,得到的未来环境的预测结果差异也很大.IPCC第三次评估报告中广泛讨论了气候变化与洪水之间的关系.IPCC第三次评估报告警告说,在东亚季风区非常湿润的季风季节出现的可能性非常大,进而会导致相应地区洪水风险增加.本文总结了迄今为此可收集到的有关长江洪水的资料.利用一些案例来分析研究未来假定情景下气候对水文的影响,并对东亚地区的模拟结果进行了讨论.     

淮河流域洪涝灾害时间对称性研究

准确判断重大自然灾害发生趋势对于防灾减灾意义重大.基于时间对称性理论,本文构建“可公度降噪—对称性趋势判断—信息结构系稳定性检验”研究模式,判断了淮河流域(HRB)洪涝灾害发生趋势.结果表明:(1)通过可公度降噪处理去除了噪声元素,提高了预测的精确性;(2)运用三元可公度、蝴蝶结构图、信息结构系等方法判断,2019年HRB发生洪涝灾害的信号较强,该年发生洪涝灾害的随机性概率为66.7%,不漏报置信水平为57.1%;(3)通过洪涝灾害与太阳黑子活动的相关性分析可知,HRB在太阳黑子活动谷年附近易发生洪涝灾害,进一步提高了预测结果的可信度.“可公度降噪—对称性趋势判断—信息结构系稳定性检验”研究模式是对现有时间对称性方法的补充和完善,以期为中国灾害预测起到一定的推动作用.     

洪水预报中特征值预报的若干数学方法比较

讨论研究了水文特征值预报的数学方法,统计回归模型、神经网络模型和模糊回归模型。三个计处实例表明如果系统的线性关系较好,统计回归模型的结果最好;如果系统的线民生关系差,神经网络模型的结果最好;如果用于率定模型的资料太短,任何一个模型都不可靠。     

Input-output Balances of Nutrients and Plankton in a Flooded Area of the Lower Odra

The retention of particulate matter of the Odra River in flooded areas was estimated by determining suspended particulate matter (SPM) elimination and particle-bound nutrient retention in a polder area of the Lower Odra Valley national park. Water and suspended matter samples collected before, during, and after the 1997 summer flood at the inlet and the outlet of the investigated polder (Polder A/B close to Schwedt) offer the opportunity to balance the matter retention inside the floodplain. The maximum level of retained SPM (more than 80%) was calculated for the record flood of summer 1997, while in ordinary winter floods retention differs between 33% and 70%. Basic properties of the flowing particles like settling velocity, density, loss on ignition etc. change on their way through the polder area. In the investigated Polder A/B a retention of at least 50% of particle-bound phosphorus which was independent of the incoming suspended matter load from the Odra River was observed. The retention of particle-bound nitrogen and carbon varied seasonally to different extents. The presented balance demonstrates that particle-bound nutrient retention in polders is an important factor in the self-purification process of the river system. Some additional effort was done to study changes of plankton composition: during a joint field experiment in spring 1998, the authors determined biological parameters (abundance and biomass of phytoplankton and zooplankton) of water samples at polder inflow and outflow points.     

Phase Composition of Flood Sediments of the German-Polish Odra River Immediately after the Flood Event in 1997

Immediately after the flood event in summer 1997 at the Odra river, samples of flood sediments were taken for a complex phase analysis. The realized investigations show that the sampled flood sediments are very inhomogeneous. The main reasons for this substantial condition are surely different states of flow during the flood event. It is possible to characterize the investigated material as middle to fine sands with variable phase compositions. The mineral content of the fraction <2 μm shows a complex composition of amorphous matter, quartz, feldspars, and a different composed clay mineral matter. A high distribution of several mixed layers in the clay mineral phase is detectable. Within the scope of the taken analyses the following minerals were detected: kaolinite (disordered), kaolinite/smectite-mixed layer, chlorite/smectite-mixed layer, montmorillonite, illite/smectite-mixed layer, celadonite. The investigation of the heavy fraction shows heavy minerals and heavy particles of different geneses. Mainly these are geogenic, transparent heavy minerals like zircon, amphibole, garnet, pyroxene, apatite, rutile, and epidote. Furthermore there were analysed geogenic, opaque heavy minerals (magnetite and ilmenite), anthropogenic, opaque heavy particles (fly ashes and slags), and biogenic components (pyrite framboids). The substantial character of the investigated flood sediments (e.g. content of organic matter, content of clay minerals) shows that this material is able to act as a fixation medium of contaminants.     

The Flood in the Odra River 1997 – Impact of Suspended Solids on Water Quality

The flood in the Odra river in 1997 has led to considerable additional pollution of the Stettin Lagoon and the Baltic Sea with contaminated suspended solids. For some priority substances, the pollutant entries via suspended solids during the flood period are estimated to be approximately 1/3 of the usual annual load. Among these priority pollutants there are total organic carbon (TOC), nitrogen, and the heavy metals Cu, Pb and Zn. For the concentrations of the priority pollutants in suspended solids accumulation factors from 2 to 4 in the comparison with normal conditions were observed. On the basis of the analysis of sediments sampled after the flood, main sources of the pollutants should be evaluated. As reference area with an industrial background as well as a typical pollutant pattern the region around Glogow/Legnica is proposed.     

The Pollution Load from the River Odra in Comparison to That in Other Polish Rivers in 1988–1997

The discharge of organic matter, nutrients, and heavy metals from the river Odra into the Baltic Sea is compared with the combined discharge of the same substances from other Polish rivers into the Baltic during 1988–1997. The impact of the summer flood of 1997 is also discussed. The discharges of organic matter, nitrogen and phosphorus compounds were closely correlated with the flow rate. The annual loads of these nutrients measured in 1988 and 1996 under similar flow conditions decreased by 15 to 40% in these rivers as a result of the reduction of point sources. A steady decrease in the heavy metal load, independent of weather conditions, has been recorded during the past decade. Zinc decreased by up to 85% in the Odra and 99% in the Wisła. Although the water outflow from the Odra was half that of the Wisła, it transported a proportionally higher load of chemical compounds. Despite the differences in flow rates, the contribution of both rivers to the total riverine phosphorus discharge was approximately the same. The total water outflow during the flood (from 1 July to 28 August 1997) increased by 65% near the mouth of the Odra in comparison to 1996. The phosphate discharge increased by 34%, that of nitrite nitrogen by 88%