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Based on 1961-2000 NCEP/NCAR monthly mean reanalysis datasets, vapor transfer and hydrological budget over the Tibetan Plateau are investigated. The Plateau is a vapor sink all the year round. In summer, vapor is convergent in lower levels (from surface to 500 hPa) and divergent in upper levels (from 400 to 300 hPa), with 450 hPa referred to as level of non-divergence. Two levels have different hydrologic budget signatures: the budget is negative at the upper levels from February to November, i.e., vapor transfers from the upper levels over the plateau; as to the lower, the negative (positive) budget occurs during the winter (summer) half year. Evidence also indicates that Tibetan Plateau is a "vapor transition belt", vapor from the south and the west is transferred from lower to upper levels there in summer, which will affect surrounding regions, including eastern China, especially, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze. Vapor transfer exerts significant influence on precipitation in summertime months. Vapor transferred from the upper layers helps humidify eastern China, with coefficient -0.3 of the upper budget to the precipitation over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze (MLRY); also, vapor transferred from east side (27.5o-32.5oN) of the upper level has remarkable relationship with precipitation, the coefficient being 0.41. The convergence of the lower level vapor has great effects on the local precipitation over the plateau, with coefficient reaching 0.44, and the vapor passage affects the advance and retreat of the rainbelt. In general, atmospheric hydrologic budget and vapor transfer over the plateau have noticeable effects on precipitation of the target region as well as the ambient areas. 相似文献
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INTRODUCTIONHowtocombinethestudyofseismogenictectonicswithearthquakepredictionisanurgentscientificdifficulty .Thereexistbiggapsbetweenstudymethodsandcurrentknowledgeonseismogenitectonics ,earthquakeprediction ,seismogenesisandthephysicsofearthquakeoccurre… 相似文献
56.
Using CRD method for quantification of groundwater recharge in the Gaza Strip, Palestine 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Husam Baalousha 《Environmental Geology》2005,48(7):889-900
Rainfall is the main source of groundwater recharge in the Gaza Strip area in Palestine. The area is located in the semi-arid
zone and there is no source of recharge other than rainfall. Estimation of groundwater recharge from rainfall is not an easy
task since it depends on many uncertain parameters. The cumulative rainfall departure (CRD) method, which depends on the water
balance principle, was used in this study to estimate the net groundwater recharge from rainfall. This method does not require
much data as is the case with other classical recharge estimation methods. The CRD method was carried out using optimisation
approach to minimise the root mean square error (RMSE) between the measured and the simulated groundwater head. The results
of this method were compared with the results of other recharge estimation methods from literature. It was found that the
results of the CRD method are very close to the results of the other methods, but with less data requirements and greater
ease of application. Based on the CRD method, the annual amount of groundwater recharge from rainfall in the Gaza Strip is
about 43 million m3.
An erratum to this article can be found at 相似文献
57.
The strain developed due to creep is mainly proportional to the logarithm of the time under load, and is mostly proportional
to the stress and temperature. At higher temperature the creep rate falls slowly with respect to time, and the creep strain
is proportional to a fractional power of time, with the exponent increasing as the temperature increases and reaching a value
approximately one-third at temperatures of about 0.5°C. At these temperatures, the creep increases with stress according to
a power greater than unity and possibly exponentially. It increases with temperature as (−U/kT), where U is an activation energy and k is Boltzman’s constant. There are different methods to determine the creep strain and the energy of Jog (B) including experimental
methods, multivariate regression analysis, and by numerical simulation. These methods are less cumbersome and time consuming.
In the present investigation, artificial neural network technique has been used for prediction of the creep strain and energy
of Jog (B). Two different networks have been tested and validated. Both the networks have four input neurons and one hidden
layer with five neurons, and one output neuron. The data for different rocks at temperatures up to 750°C under conditions
of compressive or tortional stress are taken from the literatures. The training and testing data sets used were 163 and 14,
respectively. To deal with the problem of overfitting of data, Bayesian regulation has been used and network is trained with
suitable training epochs. The coefficients of correlation among the predicted and observed values are found high and they
improve the confidence of the users. The mean absolute percentage error obtained are also very low. 相似文献
58.
Prediction of river water temperature: a comparison between a new family of hybrid models and statistical approaches
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Sebastiano Piccolroaz Elisa Calamita Bruno Majone Aurélien Gallice Annunziato Siviglia Marco Toffolon 《水文研究》2016,30(21):3901-3917
River water temperature is a key physical variable controlling several chemical, biological and ecological processes. Its reliable prediction is a main issue in many environmental applications, which however is hampered by data scarcity, when using data‐demanding deterministic models, and modelling limitations, when using simpler statistical models. In this work we test a suite of models belonging to air2stream family, which are characterized by a hybrid formulation that combines a physical derivation of the key equation with a stochastic calibration of parameters. The air2stream models rely solely on air temperature and streamflow, and are of similar complexity as standard statistical models. The performances of the different versions of air2stream in predicting river water temperature are compared with those of the most common statistical models typically used in the literature. To this aim, a dataset of 38 Swiss rivers is used, which includes rivers classified into four different categories according to their hydrological characteristics: low‐land natural rivers, lake outlets, snow‐fed rivers and regulated rivers. The results of the analysis provide practical indications regarding the type of model that is most suitable to simulate river water temperature across different time scales (from daily to seasonal) and for different hydrological regimes. A model intercomparison exercise suggests that the family of air2stream hybrid models generally outperforms statistical models, while cross‐validation conducted over a 30‐year period indicates that they can be suitably adopted for long‐term analyses. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
59.
利用1961-2013年中国地面台站长期观测资料和同期NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,以华北、江淮和华南为研究区,分析了中国中东部冬季霾日的形成与东亚冬季风以及大气湿度的关系。结果表明:(1)冬季霾日与东亚冬季风强度成显著的负相关。首先,东亚冬季风强度的减弱使得地面风速减小,进而导致冬季霾日增多。其中,华北7-8 m/s最大风速日数和江淮6-8 m/s最大风速日数的减少,及华南≤2 m/s最大风速日数的增多对各区冬季霾日的增多作用较大。其次,东亚冬季风减弱引起冬季气温的持续升高,易导致冬季霾日的增多,这在华北地区较之在江淮和华南更为明显。(2)由于气候变暖,冬季气温升高,使得近地面相对湿度减小。在江淮和华南地区,冬季霾日的增多与近地面相对湿度的减小显著相关,而在华北地区这种相关较弱。(3)冬季气温升高也有利于大气层结稳定度的增强,3个区域冬季霾日的增多均与大气层结稳定度的增强显著相关,特别是与对流层中低层(850-500 hPa)大气饱和度的降低显著相关。(4)冬季霾日数变化与区域水汽输送关系密切。其中,华北地区的冬季霾日数与水汽总收入成显著正相关,江淮地区与纬向水汽收入成显著正相关,与经向水汽收入成显著负相关,华南地区与经向水汽收入成显著负相关。 相似文献
60.
To a set of well-regarded international scenarios (UNEP’s GEO-4), we have added consideration of the demand, supply, and energy implications related to copper production and use over the period 2010–2050. To our knowledge, these are the first comprehensive metal supply and demand scenarios to be developed. We find that copper demand increases by between 275 and 350% by 2050, depending on the scenario. The scenario with the highest prospective demand is not Market First (a “business as usual” vision), but Equitability First, a scenario of transition to a world of more equitable values and institutions. These copper demands exceed projected copper mineral resources by mid-century and thereafter. Energy demand for copper production also demonstrates strong increases, rising to as much as 2.4% of projected 2050 overall global energy demand. We investigate possible policy responses to these results, concluding that improving the efficiency of the copper cycle and encouraging the development of copper-free energy distribution on the demand side, and improving copper recycling rates on the supply side are the most promising of the possible options. Improving energy efficiency in primary copper production would lead to a reduction in the energy demand by 0.5% of projected 2050 overall global energy demand. In addition, encouraging the shift towards renewable technologies is important to minimize the impacts associated with copper production. 相似文献