Study on short-range numerical forecasting of ocean current in the East China Sea——Ⅰ Basic problems of ocean current forecasting and structure of the models

Ocean current forecasting is still in explorative stage of study. In the study, we face some problems that have not been met before. The solving of these problems has become fundamental premise for realizing the ocean current forecasting. In the present paper are discussed in depth the physical essence for such basic problems as the predictability of ocean current, the predictable currents, the dynamical basis for studying respectively the tidal current and circulation, the necessity of boundary model, the models on regions with different scales and their link. The foundations and plans to solve the problems are demonstrated. Finally a set of operational numerical forecasting system for ocean current is proposed.     

周期浅析

本文分析了滑动平均的数据处理方法对周期分析结果产生的影响。提出了过程变量同号积分的数据处理方法,并对亚洲西风指数序列进行了试验分析。分析结果表明,周期的长短与振幅的大小有密切关系,亚洲逐日西风指数的周期振荡具有明显的季节特征。     

热带气旋对黄、渤海影响的统计特征分析

本文统计分析了1949—2000年共52年影响黄、渤海的热带气旋时空分布特点及ENS0、西太平洋副热带高压与影响黄、渤海的热带气旋关系。结果表明，西太平洋热带气放以四种主要路径影响黄、渤海，其影响时间、频数及强度均有不同。ENSO和西太平洋副热带高压的强度、位置将影响热带气旋对黄、渤海影响的路径和频数。     

太平洋海温异常对南海西南季风建立早晚的影响——数值模拟研究

利用9层15波全球大气环流谱模式研究了太平洋海温异常对南海西南季风建立早晚的影响作用.结果表明:西-中太平洋海温异常数值试验结果最能反映出南海西南季风爆发早、晚年4～5月份大气环流的差异特征.数值试验结果显示:西太平洋海温正(负)异常可导致西太平洋副高减弱(加强);中太平洋海温正(负)异常主要使得中太平洋上空的洋中槽减弱(加深);东太平洋海温正(负)异常可造成东太平洋赤道两侧高层环流产生反气旋性(气旋性)变化,孟加拉湾-南海-西太平洋热带地区出现东风(西风)异常,西太副高加强(减弱).可见西太平洋海温异常和东太平洋海温异常都可以对副高强弱变化产生明显影响,从而对南海西南季风建立早晚产生影响,只不过西太平洋海温异常的影响作用更为显著.西太平洋正(负)海温异常与中太平洋负(正)海温异常经常是同时出现的,其激发出的与向东传的Kelvin波和向西传的行星波相联系的环流异常为南海季风建立早(晚)提供有利的条件,因而这一海温分布型是影响南海西南季风建立早晚的重要影响因子.     

Reanalysis of the Atmospheric Flux of Nutrient Elements to the Southern Yellow Sea and the East China Sea

Based on the recent research results on dry and wet deposition of nutrient elements and sulphate,we estimate the atmospheric flux of nutrient elements and sulphate to the southern Yellow Sea and the East China Sea in each season.The results suggest that the concentrations of nutrient elements and sulphate in aerosol and precipitation show an apparent seasonal cycle with the maximum values in winter and the minimum values in summer.Depositions of nitrate and sulphate are dominated by wet deposition,while the deposition for phosphate is mainly dry deposition.Moreover,compared with the riverine inputs,the atmospheric deposition may be the main source of dissolved inorganic nutrients in the southern Yellow Sea and the East China Sea.     

南海南部NS93-5孔沉积物磁化率特征及其对全球气候变化的记录

对南海南部长533cm的NS－93孔连续采取423块样品，测量低场下的质量磁化率。并间隔取样202块，测量ARM。通过与沉积层序、氧同位素和矿物特征对比分析，我们认为NS－93孔磁化率的变化主要受控于外源磁性矿物浓度的变化，其值的高低与沉积物中碎屑矿物的含量相关，与碳酸盐的含量反相关，说明碳酸盐矿物对磁性矿物浓度具有稀释作用。在磁化率特征变化曲线上，与氧同位素阶段和Heinrich变冷事件、D－O旋回有好的对应关系。磁化率的相对高值与氧同位素奇数阶段和气候的暖期相对应，而相对低值则与气候冷期对应。这一规律反映了东亚季风、大洋环流强弱和陆源碎屑输入对沉积物磁化率的控制作用。同时，从ARM和磁化率的关系分析，南海南部在氧同位素阶段6沉积时期处于相对稳定的环境，南面的Borneo海峡可能是封闭的。     

夏季南海上层环流动力机制的数值研究

通过利用一个分区性的正压-斜压衔接模式来探讨夏季南海的上层环流特征及其动力机制,结果表明:夏季期间,由于风生环流的不稳定性促使在东沙群岛附近的气旋涡的强度及位置发生变化,并间接导致黑潮侵入南海北部的程度变化以及气旋涡南侧的反气旋式环流、西沙群岛西南侧的气旋涡的强度和范围出现波动现象;在南海南部的北向西边界流由于离岸的西南季风所驱动在中南半岛中部沿岸脱离岸线往东北方向的流动,导致沿岸的水体大量流失而在沿岸形成一支南向补偿流并在西沙群岛西南侧诱生一气旋涡,而上述的离岸西边界流则作顺时针方向流动,从而在南海南部形成反气旋式大环流;在南沙海槽附近出现的局地气旋涡和万安滩附近的气旋涡分别受β效应、底形效应的作用而形成.     

Ocean Color Satellite Imagery and Shipboard Measurements of Chlorophyll a and Suspended Particulate Matter Distribution in the East China Sea

Satellite-derived ocean color data of Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS) on board the Nimbus-7 and Ocean Color and Temperature Scanner (OCTS) on board the Advanced Earth Observing Satellite (ADEOS) are jointly used with historical in situ data to examine seasonal and spatial distributions of chlorophyll a (Chl-a) and suspended particulate matter (SPM) concentrations in the East China Sea. Ocean color imagery showed that Chl-a concentrations on the continental shelf were higher than those of the Kuroshio area throughout the year. Satellite-derived Chl-a concentrations are generally in good accordance with historical in situ values during spring through autumn (although no shipboard in situ measurement was conducted at nearshore areas). In contrast, ocean color imagery in winter indicated high Chl-a concentrations (4–10 mg m^–3) on the continental shelf where bottom depth was less than 50 m when surface water was turbid (2–72 g m^–3 of SPM at surface), while historical in situ values were usually less than 1 mg m^–3. This suggests that resuspended bottom sediment due to wind-driven mixing and winter cooling is responsible for the noticeable overestimation of satellite-derived Chl-a concentrations. The algorithm for ocean color needs to be improved urgently for turbid water.     

春季东海不同水域的表层叶绿素含量

利用１９９４年春季在东海及台湾海峡首次获得的表层水中绿素含量大面走航连续观测资料，结合温盐分布及以往的有关东海及台湾海峡的海流和上升流的结论，分析了春季东海表层叶绿素含量在不同水域的分布特征。结果表明，叶绿素含量分布与水文结构关系密切。叶绿素含量值随不同海流流域而变，但在各海流流域内基本不变，黑潮表层水的叶绿素含量最低，其次是台湾暖流表层水，长江冲淡水与江浙沿岸流域的叶绿素含量较高；黑潮西侧弱流剧     

春季东海表层水叶绿素a含量分布特征

依据“科学一号”调查船１９９４年４月在东海１０个断面上所进行的表层水连续走航观测资料，研究东海表层水叶绿素α含量在不同空间尺度上的分布特征和变化规律。结果表明，叶绿素α含量在陆架区高，在外海低；测区南部海域的含量一般高于北部海域。叶绿素α含量的分布形态变化很大，在某些外海深水区，叶绿素α含量连续百科公里没有显著变化，变化幅度小于０．２ｍｇ‘ｍ＾３；而在某些近海浅水区，叶绿素α含量在不到１公里范围内