Contrasting the Skills and Biases of Deterministic Predictions for the Two Types of El Nio

The tropical Pacific has begun to experience a new type of El Nio, which has occurred particularly frequently during the last decade, referred to as the central Pacific(CP) El Nio. Various coupled models with different degrees of complexity have been used to make real-time El Nio predictions, but high uncertainty still exists in their forecasts. It remains unknown as to how much of this uncertainty is specifically related to the new CP-type El Nio and how much is common to both this type and the conventional Eastern Pacific(EP)-type El Nio. In this study, the deterministic performance of an El Nio–Southern Oscillation(ENSO) ensemble prediction system is examined for the two types of El Nio. Ensemble hindcasts are run for the nine EP El Nio events and twelve CP El Nio events that have occurred since 1950. The results show that(1) the skill scores for the EP events are significantly better than those for the CP events, at all lead times;(2) the systematic forecast biases come mostly from the prediction of the CP events; and(3) the systematic error is characterized by an overly warm eastern Pacific during the spring season, indicating a stronger spring prediction barrier for the CP El Nio. Further improvements to coupled atmosphere–ocean models in terms of CP El Nio prediction should be recognized as a key and high-priority task for the climate prediction community.     

A Three-dimensional Wave Activity Flux of Inertia–Gravity Waves and Its Application to a Rainstorm Event

A three-dimensional transformed Eulerian-mean(3D TEM) equation under a non-hydrostatic and non-geostrophic assumption is deduced in this study. The vertical component of the 3D wave activity flux deduced here is the primary difference from previous studies, which is suitable to mesoscale systems. Using the 3D TEM equation, the energy propagation of the inertia–gravity waves and how the generation and dissipation of the inertia–gravity waves drive the mean flow can be examined. During the mature stage of a heavy precipitation event, the maximum of the Eliassen–Palm(EP) flux divergence is primarily concentrated at the height of 10–14 km, where the energy of the inertia–gravity waves propagates forward(eastward) and upward. Examining the contribution of each term of the 3D TEM equation shows that the EP flux divergence is the primary contributor to the mean flow tendency. The EP flux divergence decelerates the zonal wind above and below the high-level jet at the height of 10 km and 15 km, and accelerates the high-level jet at the height of 12–14 km. This structure enhances the vertical wind shear of the environment and promotes the development of the rainstorm.     

不同类型ENSO事件对初冬北极海冰的影响

基于1951—2019年NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、Hadley环流中心海温、海冰密集度资料,通过合成分析和诊断温度异常方程,研究不同类型ENSO对初冬北极海冰的影响。结果表明,EP La Ni1a发展年初冬(11—12月),巴伦支—喀拉海海冰异常减少;CP La Ni1a发展初冬,巴伦支—喀拉海海冰异常增加。EP和CP型El Ni1o对初冬北极海冰的影响类似：格陵兰海海冰异常减少,而哈德逊—巴芬湾海冰异常增加。不同类型ENSO对初冬北极海冰的影响主要通过产生不同的大气遥相关,引起同期和前期的海表气温异常而实现。     

恩平24-2油田水平井钻井液技术研究

为满足恩平24-2油田水平井钻井工程和储层保护需要,通过实验研制出一种无固相快速弱凝胶钻井液体系.室内评价试验表明：该钻井液具有较高的动塑比和较高低剪切速率黏度（LSRV）,能有效克服水平井段携岩难、易形成岩屑床的问题.具有优异的抑制性和润滑性,且滤失量较小,具有较强的抗温、抗污染能力、井眼净化能力和储层保护能力.针对恩平24-2油田水平井采用裸眼完井工艺,研究了破胶剂JPC对钻井液及其滤饼的破胶性能,破胶剂JPC能有效解除聚合物对储层造成的污染.研究结果表明,该钻井液具有独特的流变性,维护简单,优异的储层保护性能和较好的可降解性,适用于恩平24-2油田水平井水平段的钻进.     

瞬变波动力强迫对初夏至盛夏东亚高空西风急流变化的影晌

利用NCEP／NCAR逐El再分析资料,探讨了瞬变波动力强迫作用对初夏至盛夏急流北跳和急流中心西移的影响。结果表明,瞬变波的动力强迫作用有利于急流北跳的发生,但不利于急流中心西移的发生。通过分析年际尺度上初夏至盛夏急流变化的早晚与瞬变波异常的关系发现,对于急流北跳发生的早晚,瞬变波异常的动力强迫作用为正反馈作用;对于中心西移发生的早晚,瞬变波异常的动力强迫作用则为负反馈作用。可见,瞬变波的动力强迫作用对初夏至盛夏急流变化及其发生早晚具有重要影响,但对急流北跳和急流中心西移的作用显著不同。     

Changes of Extreme Precipitation and its Associated Mechanisms in Northwest China

Characterized by scarce water resources and fragile ecosystems, Northwest China(NWC) has experienced a climate shift from warm-dry to warm-wet conditions since the 1980s that has garnered extensive concern in recent years. In this study, the variability in extreme precipitation(EP) during 1961–2016 in different climate zones of NWC and the possible mechanisms for this variation are investigated. The results show that the EP trends significantly increased in most of the westerly zone(WZ) and plateau zone(PZ), while the EP trends did not significantly decrease in the monsoon zone(MZ).The start dates of extreme precipitation(SDEP) and end dates of extreme precipitation(EDEP) advanced and were postponed, respectively, in the WZ and PZ, while the opposite occurred in the MZ. Summer atmospheric circulation, water vapor transport, and atmospheric instability over NWC varied greatly with the interdecadal shift in EP before and after 1986. During 1986–2016, upper-level divergence and lower-level convergence occurred in the MZ and PZ, which strengthened ascending flow. In addition, the summer water vapor and atmospheric instability increased in the WZ and PZ.These characteristics created favorable conditions for increased occurrences of EP in the WZ and PZ in summer.Conversely, the upper-level convergence and lower-level divergence in the MZ strengthened descending flow. Decreases in summer water vapor and atmospheric instability occurred in the MZ after 1986. Hence, the environmental conditions in the MZ may have prevented the occurrence and development of EP in summer during 1986–2016.     

Delta Scuti stars in the Praesepe cluster observed by the MOST satellite

The Praesepe cluster contains a number of δ Sct and γ Dor pulsators. Asteroseismology of cluster stars is simplified by the common distance, age and stellar abundances. Since asteroseismology requires a large number of known frequencies, the small pulsation amplitudes of these stars require space satellite campaigns. The present study utilizes photometric MOST satellite measurements in order to determine the pulsation frequencies of two evolved (EP Cnc, BT Cnc) and two main‐sequence (BS Cnc, HD 73872) δ Sct stars in the Praesepe cluster. The frequency analysis of the 2008 and 2009 data detected up to 34 frequencies per star with most amplitudes in the submillimag range. In BS Cnc, two modes showed strong amplitude variability between 2008 and 2009. The frequencies ranged from 0.76 to 41.7 cd^–1. After considering the different evolutionary states and mean stellar densities of these four stars, the differences and large ranges in frequency remain (© 2011 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

热带太平洋海温异常对北极海冰的可能影响

本文利用1950-2015年间Hadley环流中心海冰和海温资料及NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,研究了热带太平洋海温异常对北极海冰的可能影响,并从大气环流和净表面热通量两个角度探讨了可能的物理机制。结果表明,在ENSO事件发展年的夏、秋季节,EP型与CP型El Niño事件与北极海冰异常的联系无明显信号。而La Niña事件期间北极海冰出现显著异常,并且EP型与CP型La Niña之间存在明显差异。EP型La Niña发生时,北极地区巴伦支海、喀拉海关键区海冰异常减少,CP型La Niña事件则对应着东西伯利亚海、楚科奇海地区海冰异常增加。在EP型La Niña发展年的夏、秋季节,热带太平洋海温异常通过遥相关波列,使得巴伦支海、喀拉海海平面气压为负异常并与中纬度气压正异常共同构成类似AO正位相的结构,形成的风场异常有利于北大西洋暖水的输入,同时造成暖平流,偏高的水汽含量进一步加强了净表面热通量收入,使得巴伦支海、喀拉海海冰异常减少。而在CP型La Niña发展年的夏季,东西伯利亚海、楚科奇海关键区受其东侧气旋式环流的影响,以异常北风分量占主导,将海冰从极点附近由北向南输送到关键区,海冰异常增加,而净表面热通量的作用较小。     

东部和中部型El Nino事件对云南冬季降水影响的差异分析

利用1981-2017年云南125个站逐日降水观测资料和NCEP再分析资料,对比分析了两类El Nino事件期间云南冬季的降水差异,发现东部型El Nino有利于冬季云南大部地区降水显著偏多,而中部型El Nino的影响却不明显。进一步从两类事件相应的大气环流等方面分析了造成降水差异的物理原因。研究表明:(1)东部型El Nino年,Walker环流在西太平洋为异常强的下沉气流,西太平洋副热带高压偏强偏西,Hadley环流在20°N为异常上升气流,造成云南水汽输送和辐合加强,中高纬度巴尔喀什湖和贝加尔湖脊发展,冷空气沿高原东侧南下影响云南,冷暖空气在云南频繁交汇,导致云南冬季降水日数明显偏多,相应降水偏多;(2)中部型El Nino年,Walker环流在西太平洋下沉支强度较东部型弱,相应的西太平洋副热带高压较东部型偏弱偏东,Hadley环流在20°N为下沉气流,对云南区域水汽输送影响较弱,同时中高纬度环流不利于冷空气南下影响云南,除对应冬季云南东部降水日数偏少外,对其他地区降水的影响不明显。     

CCD photometry of RV rau stars. VII. EP lyrae

Photometric observations of the variable star EP Lyr were performed with a CCD photometer during the observing season of 2002. Analysis of these observations together with published data has confirmed the mean period of the main variability cycle P = 83.^d248 over almost 100 years. The periodicity of the variations in the main cycle is investigated on the basis of O-C diagrams. The time scale of its variations ranges from 1–2 to 8–20 thousand days.