天山中段地区重复地震时空特征研究

基于2009—2017年新疆区域数字地震台网记录的地震波形数据,利用波形互相关技术及主事件定位方法识别并重新定位了新疆天山中段及其周缘的重复地震。以波形互相关系数0.9作为阈值来确定研究区的重复地震事件,统计结果显示3万零181个事件中的1万1 618个为重复地震事件,这些重复地震事件组成了2395组重复地震对和重复地震丛,占总事件数的38.5%。根据重复地震重定位前后地震对之间距离的统计结果推测,该区域的系统定位误差约为5—10 km。进一步结合该区域最新的震源分类结果对不同震源类型重复地震的时空分布特征予以分析,结果显示:重复矿山爆破事件在空间上呈丛集性分布,且其中的93.6%发生于白天,同时呈现季节性发生模式,即爆破多发生于夏季,而冬季较少;而重复构造地震在空间上大多沿断层分布,24小时内呈随机分布的特征,且研究时段内每个月的活动水平相对平稳;重复诱发地震成丛分布于靠近油气田和水库的区域,但其中部分诱发地震的位置与构造地震重叠,发震时间特征与构造地震相似,为随机分布。      

Scientists' warning on extreme wildfire risks to water supply

2020 is the year of wildfire records. California experienced its three largest fires early in its fire season. The Pantanal, the largest wetland on the planet, burned over 20% of its surface. More than 18 million hectares of forest and bushland burned during the 2019–2020 fire season in Australia, killing 33 people, destroying nearly 2500 homes, and endangering many endemic species. The direct cost of damages is being counted in dozens of billion dollars, but the indirect costs on water-related ecosystem services and benefits could be equally expensive, with impacts lasting for decades. In Australia, the extreme precipitation (“200 mm day −1 in several location”) that interrupted the catastrophic wildfire season triggered a series of watershed effects from headwaters to areas downstream. The increased runoff and erosion from burned areas disrupted water supplies in several locations. These post-fire watershed hazards via source water contamination, flash floods, and mudslides can represent substantial, systemic long-term risks to drinking water production, aquatic life, and socio-economic activity. Scenarios similar to the recent event in Australia are now predicted to unfold in the Western USA. This is a new reality that societies will have to live with as uncharted fire activity, water crises, and widespread human footprint collide all-around of the world. Therefore, we advocate for a more proactive approach to wildfire-watershed risk governance in an effort to advance and protect water security. We also argue that there is no easy solution to reducing this risk and that investments in both green (i.e., natural) and grey (i.e., built) infrastructure will be necessary. Further, we propose strategies to combine modern data analytics with existing tools for use by water and land managers worldwide to leverage several decades worth of data and knowledge on post-fire hydrology.     

Exceptionally favourable life conditions for macrobenthos during the Late Cenomanian OAE-2 event: Ichnological record from the Bonarelli Level in the Grajcarek Unit,Polish Carpathians

Pelagic and hemipelagic sediments of the Bonarelli Level (uppermost Cenomanian) in the Sztolnia section (Grajcarek Unit, Polish Carpathians) contain trace fossils of the Zoophycos ichnofacies, including (in descending order of abundance): Chondrites (smaller and larger forms), Planolites, Thalassinoides, Palaeophycus, Taenidium, Teichichnus, and Zoophycos. They occur in thick bioturbated layers, which are interbedded with rare, thin layers of unbioturbated black shales. The black shale layers mark the Bonarelli Level and are interpreted as a record of anoxia or dysoxia. Coeval sections in the Western Tethys contain similar trace fossils but they are less abundant and these sections are characterized by thicker unbioturbated black shale layers and thinner bioturbated layers. This confirms the exceptionally favourable life conditions in sediments of the Sztolnia section, which do not record strong global anoxia during the OAE-2 event. Such favourable conditions were probably caused by effective oxygenation of pore waters and deep burial of organic matter, which are a consequence of high rates of accumulation and the palaeogeographical location of the section on a flank of a submarine high, under strong circulation.     

广义最短路径在街区人员疏散中的应用研究

选择广度优先遍历算法,以事发地点为起始对所有路段进行编号。通过分析影响街区人员疏散的几个因素,研究了人员疏散的相关模型,并对广义最短路径在人员疏散过程中的模拟做了一些研究。最后对全文内容进行了小结,并对值得进一步研究的问题给出了建议。     

DIE TECHNISCHE UND WIRTSCHAFTLICHE BEDEUTUNG DER GLETSCHER / The Role of Glaciers in the Economy and Technical Development of Alpine Countries

English Summary

In former times the inhabitants of alpine regions looked upon glaciers as an uncanny and dangerous realm which they avoided as far as possible. It was only around the middle of the 18th Century that man became gradually aware of the beauty of the mountains, and approximately at the same time science started to take an interest in glaciers. Most of the questions raised in this field have been solved since. However, even in our times it is not sufficiently well known that glaciers, which are responsible for the characteristics of the regime of alpine rivers, are interesting not only from the point of view of physical geography, but are also of great importance for the economy and technical development of alpine countries.

Torrents which are fed by the melted ice, carry great quantities of water at periods when other streams frequently run dry. Nevertheless, in the terms of hydraulic power economy, it would be an over simplification to consider glaciers as reservoirs. It must not be forgotten, that in the Alps precipitation is highest during the summer months, and consequently that rivers carry more water during that season than during any other period of the year. The presence of glaciers adds to the extreme situation, and therefore the equalisation of seasonal differences in the runoff of glaciers necessary for power economy requires more storage capacity than is needed for catchment areas without glaciers.

On the other hand, there are also arid zones in the Alps, where conditions are entirely different. I am thinking of the deep valleys, running east to west, which are screened from rain by high mountain ranges, as for instance in the Wallis, the Vintschgau, parts of Western Tyrol and the Engadine. In these valleys it is particularly the slopes open to the south and exposed to constant insolation which show the typical characteristics and vegetation of arid zones. Precipitation during the growing season is often far less than the 600mm which is considered as the minimum needed for most types of cultivation, so much so that artificial irrigation has been practised for many generations. Whenever possible, the aqueducts, often very primitive, are fed by the glacier runoff of the large mountain massifs which never run dry. In some parts of the Wallis and in the South and West Tyrol, the water had to be conducted long distances and across difficult terrain; the construction of these primitive aqueducts was therefore a truly difficult task, as financial and technical resources available for that purpose were very inadequate.

This additional water-supply produced by glaciers in summer has a very definite effect on the large rivers rising in the Alps and flowing down in all directions, to name a few of them, the Rhine, the Inn, the Drave, the Rhône, the Adige etc. Not a single one of them has a low water level record in summer equal to that of the Weser or the Elbe and many other rivers of Central Europe which are not fed by glaciers. This low water level in summer has naturally a very detrimental effect on the navigation of rivers, and also on their capacity to replenish ground-water resources. The abundance of glacier runoff assures a fairly steady supply of water to the first mentioned rivers even in their lower courses, a fact which is of special importance for hydraulic economy in general and for hydraulic energy economy in particular. The rich potential of hydraulic energy in Jugoslavia, for instance, suffers from the fact that the quantity of water carried by the karst-rivers is considerably smaller in summer than it is in winter. The river Drave with its tributaries fed by glacier runoff from the Alps in Carynthia and East Tyrol, is practically the only river in Jugoslavia used to a considerable extent for the production of hydraulic power. It carries even more water in summer than during other seasons. This river, which serves to equalise the seasonal production of energy is therefore most valuable for the power economy of the country.

Short-term changes in the size of glaciers which are the subject of our present symposium, are causing the development of glacier lakes of which there exist several types. Most dangerous are those in larger valleys, caused by the tongue of a side glacier forming a dam, for instance here in the Ötztal Alps, at the Gurgler and at the Rofener Eissee near Vent. Other lakes develop in the basins left behind by the tongues of former glaciers. Water suddenly released from glacier lakes due to a breach of the ice or moraine dam, has frequently been the cause of terrible catastrophes. Attempts have therefore been made to protect the valleys against floods by the construction of flood reservoirs suitably situated below the glacier. An example of this type is the reservoir dam which the Austrian torrent-control authorities constructed in the Martellvalley (South Tyrol) in 1898/99 to prevent damage from an eventual breach in the banks of a glacier lake which had developed. Nowadays the large reservoirs constructed for hydro-electric power provide even greater protection.

Reservoirs for power plants in the Alps, which are created by the construction of large dams, require the existence of basins hollowed out by former glaciers during a long geological period. Outside of the glaciated areas, such basins can generally be created only by artificially blocking up a river-valley. This type of reservoir can be easily distinguished from that described above by its entirely different outline.

It must finally be remembered that the large load of sediment carried by glacial rivers has its economic and technical problems. Although it will probably take centuries to fill up the largest hydro-electric reservoirs, or even to considerably reduce their storage capacity, there are many smaller lakes in which this development will take no more than decades. Deposits of mud, for instance in the reservoir of the Margaritze, in the “Tauernfraftwerke” area had, after a mere decade accumulated to the extent that the power-plant administration had to install a floating suction dredger to remove at least part of the sediment. In this connection it was, however, important not to overload the river downstream with mud to such a degree as to cause damage to the fish population. Careful observation was needed to find out to what extent the river was able to cope with the artificial inflow of mud, and to follow the dispersion of the peak values of the suspesion load.

Nowadays waters destined for the generation of hydro-electric power are collected at the highest possible altitudes. An interesting example of the application of modern methods of this type is the collection of the runoff from beneath the Brandner Ferner in the Silvretta from where it is conveyed to the Lünersee. As a water intake on the surface was impossible due to the difficult terrain, a tunnel had to be driven through the rock bed of the glacier and there, immediately underneath it, in an ice cave, the water flows into a cage consisting of strong steel girders. This cage retains the large bolders, while the water from the bottom of the glacier runs off into the tunnel.     

Evaluating climate model outputs for hydrological applications

Citation Wilby, R. L. (2010) Evaluating climate model outputs for hydrological applications – Opinion. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(7), 1090–1093.     

Direct relationships of discharges to the mean and standard deviation of the intervals between their exceedences

Abstract

This article paves a way for assessing flood risk by the use of two-parameter distributions, for the intervals between threshold exceedences rather than by the traditional exponential distribution. In a case study, the apparent properties of intervals between exceedences of runoff events differ from those anticipated for exponentially distributed series. A procedure is proposed to relate two statistical parameters of the intervals to threshold discharges. It considers partial duration series (PDS) with thresholds equal to all high enough observed discharges. To avoid unnecessary assumptions on the behaviour of those parameters and effects of dependence between parameters for different PDS, a non-parametric trend-free pre-whitened scheme is applied. It leads to power-law relationships between a discharge and the mean and standard deviation of the intervals between its exceedences. Predicted mean inter-exceedence intervals, for the highest observed discharges at the stations, are closer to the observational periods than those predicted by GEV distributions fitted to AMS, and by GP distributions to fitted PDS. In the present case, the latter predictions are longer than the observational periods whereas some of the predicted mean inter-exceedences are shorter than the corresponding observational periods and some others are longer.

Citation Ben-Zvi, A. & Azmon, B. (2010) Direct relationships of discharges to the mean and standard deviation of the intervals between their exceedences. Hydrol. Sci J. 55(4), 565–577.     

Regionalization of heavy rainfall to improve climatic design values for infrastructure: case study in Southern Ontario,Canada

Abstract

Southern Ontario, Canada, has been impacted in recent years by many heavy rainfall and flooding events that have exceeded existing historical estimates of infrastructure design rainfall intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) values. These recent events and the limited number of short-duration recording raingauges have prompted the need to research the climatology of heavy rainfall events within the study area, review the existing design IDF methodologies, and evaluate alternative approaches to traditional point-based heavy rainfall IDF curves, such as regional IDF design values. The use of additional data and the regional frequency analysis methodology were explored for the study area, with the objective of validating identified clusters or homogeneous regions of extreme rainfall amounts through Ward's method. As the results illustrate, nine homogeneous regions were identified in Southern Ontario using the annual maximum series (AMS) for daily and 24-h rainfall data from climate and rate-of-rainfall or tipping bucket raingauge (TBRG) stations, respectively. In most cases, the generalized extreme value and logistic distributions were identified as the statistical distributions that provide the best fit for the 24-h and sub-daily rainfall data in the study area. A connection was observed between extreme rainfall variability, temporal scale of heavy rainfall events and location of each homogeneous region. Moreover, the analysis indicated that scaling factors cannot be used reliably to estimate sub-daily and sub-hourly values from 24- and 1-h data in Southern Ontario.

Citation Paixao, E., Auld, H., Mirza, M.M.Q., Klaassen, J. & Shephard, M.W. (2011) Regionalization of heavy rainfall to improve climatic design values for infrastructure: case study in Southern Ontario, Canada. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(7), 1067–1089.     

Improving the calibration strategy of the physically-based model WaSiM-ETH using critical events

Abstract

The use of a physically-based hydrological model for streamflow forecasting is limited by the complexity in the model structure and the data requirements for model calibration. The calibration of such models is a difficult task, and running a complex model for a single simulation can take up to several days, depending on the simulation period and model complexity. The information contained in a time series is not uniformly distributed. Therefore, if we can find the critical events that are important for identification of model parameters, we can facilitate the calibration process. The aim of this study is to test the applicability of the Identification of Critical Events (ICE) algorithm for physically-based models and to test whether ICE algorithm-based calibration depends on any optimization algorithm. The ICE algorithm, which uses the data depth function, was used herein to identify the critical events from a time series. Low depth in multivariate data is an unusual combination and this concept was used to identify the critical events on which the model was then calibrated. The concept is demonstrated by applying the physically-based hydrological model WaSiM-ETH on the Rems catchment, Germany. The model was calibrated on the whole available data, and on critical events selected by the ICE algorithm. In both calibration cases, three different optimization algorithms, shuffled complex evolution (SCE-UA), parameter estimation (PEST) and robust parameter estimation (ROPE), were used. It was found that, for all the optimization algorithms, calibration using only critical events gave very similar performance to that using the whole time series. Hence, the ICE algorithm-based calibration is suitable for physically-based models; it does not depend much on the kind of optimization algorithm. These findings may be useful for calibrating physically-based models on much fewer data.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor A. Montanari

Citation Singh, S.K., Liang, J.Y., and Bárdossy, A., 2012. Improving calibration strategy of physically-based model WaSiM-ETH using critical events. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (8), 1487–1505.     

Design event selection in bivariate hydrological frequency analysis

Abstract

In the bivariate analysis of hydrological events, such as rainfall storms or flood hydrographs, the choice of an appropriate return period for structure design leads to infinite combinations of values of the related random variables (e.g. peak and volume in the analysis of floods). These combinations are generally not equivalent, from a practical point of view. In this paper, a methodology is proposed to identify a subset of the critical combinations set that includes a fixed and arbitrarily chosen percentage in probability of the events, on the basis of their probability of occurrence. Therefore, several combinations can be selected within the subset, taking into account the specific characteristic of the design problem, in order to evaluate the effects of different hydrological loads on a structure. The proposed method is applicable to any type of bivariate distribution, thus providing a simple but effective rule to narrow down the infinite possible choices for the hydrological design variables. In order to illustrate how the proposed methodology can be easily used in practice, it is applied to a study case in the context of bivariate flood frequency analysis.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor Sheng Yue

Citation Volpi, E. and Fiori, A., 2012. Design event selection in bivariate hydrological frequency analysis. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (8), 1506–1515.