Relations between climatic variability and hydrologic time series from four alluvial basins across the southwestern United States

Hydrologic time series of groundwater levels, streamflow, precipitation, and tree-ring indices from four alluvial basins in the southwestern United States were spectrally analyzed, and then frequency components were reconstructed to isolate variability due to climatic variations on four time scales. Reconstructed components (RCs), from each time series, were compared to climatic indices like the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North American Monsoon (NAM), and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), to reveal that as much as 80% of RC variation can be correlated with climate variations on corresponding time scales. In most cases, the hydrologic RCs lag behind the climate indices by 1–36 months. In all four basins, PDO-like components were the largest contributors to cyclic hydrologic variability. Generally, California time series have more variation associated with PDO and ENSO than the Arizona series, and Arizona basins have more variation associated with NAM. ENSO cycles were present in all four basins but were the largest relative contributors in southeastern Arizona. Groundwater levels show a wide range of climate responses that can be correlated from well to well in the various basins, with climate responses found in unconfined and confined aquifers from pumping centers to mountain fronts.     

Impacts of Holocene climatic variations on alluvial fan activity below snowpatches in subarctic Québec

In the Lake Guillaume-Delisle area of subarctic Québec, storm-generated alluvial fans have been active sporadically throughout the Holocene. In this study, we propose that the persistence of late-lying snowpatches in fan catchments during Holocene cold episodes promoted alluvial fan activity by lowering the precipitation threshold required to trigger a torrential event. This hypothesis was tested by characterizing the depositional processes responsible for alluvial fan formation below snowpatches, and by reconstructing the Holocene alluvial fan activity. Stratigraphic and sedimentary analyses conducted on seven alluvial fans revealed that they were deposited by torrential activity leading to waterlaid, transient, or hyperconcentrated deposition. The chronology of the storm-generated alluvial fans — based on 22 radiocarbon dates — indicates that torrential activity was enhanced during the cooler Late Holocene (i.e., after ca. 3500 cal. yr BP). Snowier winters and cooler summers were beneficial to nival activity, allowing the persistence of larger snowpatches throughout the summer and fall seasons. Rainfall-induced thaw of such snowpatches during rainstorm events is inferred to have contributed to alluvial fan activity by increasing water availability. Three peaks of alluvial activity occurred during the Late Holocene (2950–2750, 1900–1400, and 800–300 cal. yr BP) and are indicative of increased storminess resulting in higher fan activity. Increased fan activity during cooler episodes was concurrent with increased runoff activity in the immediate pronival area. This stresses the importance of nivation below snowpatches and pinpoints the role of nivation in enhancing geomorphological activity during period of cooler and more humid climate in subarctic environments.     

On global forces of nature driving the Earth’s climate. Are humans involved?

The authors identify and describe the following global forces of nature driving the Earth’s climate: (1) solar radiation as a dominant external energy supplier to the Earth, (2) outgassing as a major supplier of gases to the World Ocean and the atmosphere, and, possibly, (3) microbial activities generating and consuming atmospheric gases at the interface of lithosphere and atmosphere. The writers provide quantitative estimates of the scope and extent of their corresponding effects on the Earth’s climate. Quantitative comparison of the scope and extent of the forces of nature and anthropogenic influences on the Earth’s climate is especially important at the time of broad-scale public debates on current global warming. The writers show that the human-induced climatic changes are negligible.     

和田地区近40年气温变化特征分析

利用和田地区4个代表站1961～2000年的气温资料，对和田地区近40a来的气温变化作了分析。得出近40年来和田地区年平均气温呈上升趋势，春季气温和于田县的年平均气温却呈下降趋势。特别是上世纪90年代增温十分明显，1999年是近40a来和田地区最暖的一年。     

时间序列转折突变点检测的线性函数方法

根据转折突变的定义，在引入线性半截多项式的前提下，提出检测时间序列转折突变点的一种新方法。此方法不仅能找出时间序列中存在的多个转折突变点，而且使得检测到的突变点通过统计显著性检验。应用此方法对北半球1851—1990年年平均气温距平及其11年滑动平均序列，1901—1999年昆明5月降水及其11年滑动平均的降水序列分别进行了检测。发现北半球年平均气温距平在1879、1889、1939和1973年附近出现了年际转折突变，在1878、1888和1941年以及1972年出现了年代际尺度的转折突变；昆明5月雨量不存在年际转折突变点，但昆明5月雨量在1918、1966以及1978年附近出现了年代际尺度转折突变。     

青藏高原冬季平均温度、湿度气候特征的REOF分析

通过对青藏高原123个测站, 1961~1998年冬季 (12月至翌年2月) 平均温度、相对湿度资料做气候特征分析, 得到32°~33°N附近地区可能是高原南北温湿变化的分水岭, 以北主要受干冷空气影响, 以南主要受暖湿空气影响。用方差极大正交旋转EOF (即REOF) 方法对以上资料进行分析, 可以将青藏高原温度、相对湿度进行分型、分区, 并对各区的温度、相对湿度特征进行分析。结果表明, 近40年来, 各区的温度总趋势是在波动中逐步升高的。增温时段主要出现在1978~1981年及1983年至今。1983年开始的增温, 是近40年来最强的一次, 增温幅度大且持续时间长, 但从90年代开始增温幅度及范围出现波动。从温度线性倾向来看, 东部高原增温幅度从南到北存在“大—小—大”的现象。高原大部分地区湿度变化总趋势是在波动中逐步增湿的, 但高原北界以变干为主。从80年代后期至今高原进入显著增湿阶段, 但从90年代中后期开始增湿幅度及范围出现波动。从湿度线性倾向来看东部高原增湿幅度从南到北存在逐步减小现象, 甚至祁连山地区出现变干现象。     

晚更新世以来青海北部的人类活动与湖泊演变

作为高海拔生态环境的青海北部是青藏高原的重要组成部分。晚更新世晚期以来 ,青海北部气候环境一直处于冷暖、干湿波动过程之中 ,湖泊水域也发生了相应的扩张和收缩 ,成为高原人类迁移和发展的自然背景。约 3 0kaB .P .,在晚期智人出现和迁徙的关键时期 ,青海北部开始有了最早的人类活动 ;更新世末—全新世初 ,气候转暖 ,古人类再次来到青海北部 ;进入全新世中期 ,气候暖湿 ,湖水位回升 ,细石器技术变得十分普通 ,青海北部的人类活动渐趋频繁。     

Regional characteristics of dust events in China

The regional characteristics of dust events in China has been mainly studied by using the data of dust storm, wind-blown sand and floating dust from 338 observation stations through China from 1954 to 2000. The results of this study are as follows: (1) In China, there are two high frequent areas of dust events, one is located in the area of Minfeng and Hotan in the South Xinjiang Basin, the other is situated in the area of Minqin and Jilantai in the Hexi Region. Furthermore, the spatial distributions of the various types of dust events are different. The dust storms mainly occur in the arid and semiarid areas covering the deserts and the areas undergoing desertification in northern China. Wind-blown sand and floating-dust not only occur in the areas where dust storms occur, but also extend to the neighboring areas. The range of wind-blown sand extends northeastward and southeastward, but floating-dust mainly extends southeastward to the low-latitude region such as the East China Plain and the area of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Compared with wind-blown sand, the floating-dust seldom occurs in the high latitude areas such as North Xinjiang and Northeast China. (2) The affected areas of dust storms can be divided into seven sub-regions, that is, North Xinjiang Region, South Xinjiang Region, Hexi Region, Qaidam Basin Region, Hetao Region, Northeastern China Region and Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) Region. The area of the most frequent occurrence of dust storms and floating-dust is in South Xinjiang Region, and of wind-blown sand in the Hexi Region. In general, the frequency of dust events in all the seven regions shows a decreasing tendency from 1954 to 2000, but there are certain differences between various dust events in different regions. The maximum interannual change and variance of dust events during this time happened in South Xinjiang Region and Hexi Region. The dust events generally occur most frequently in April in most parts of China. The spring occurred days of dust events occupied 60-70% of the whole year in Hetao Region and Northeastern China Region. However, in South Xinjiang Region and North Xinjiang Region, which was less affected by monsoon climate, dust events may occur at any time of the year, less than 50% of the events in this region occur during spring. In the remaining three regions 50-60% of the dust events occur in spring of a year.     

Recurrence characteristics of late-quaternary strong earthquakes on the major active faults along the northern border of Ordos block

Through study on trenches, analysis of recurrence characteristics and recurrence interval cluster/gap of strong earthquakes along the major active faults on the northern border of Ordos block, we found 62 paleoearthquakes that occurred in the late Quaternary, including 33 earthquakes occurring in the Holocene. The recurrence characteristics of the paleoearthquakes are different at three levels, segments, faults, and fault zones. The strong seismic sequence on the independent segments is mostly characterized by long- and short-interval recurrences, while that on the faults and in fault zone is characterized clearly by random and cluster recurrences. Results of the moving window test indicate that the probabilities of "temporal cluster or gap", caused by random coincidence as opposed to intersegment contagion, are 64% and 70% for the Serteng piedmont fault and for the south-border fault of Wula Mountains, respectively, no clear interaction among the segments of each fault; while the probability is 26.8% for the whole fault zone, suggesting a clear interaction among the faults of this fault zone. These recurrence characteristics may imply an effect of the entire block motion on the recurrence of strong earthquakes. Moreover, the elapsed time for the Wujumeng Pass-Dongfeng Village segment of Serteng piedmont fault and the Tuzuo Banner-Wusutu and the Hohhot segments of Daqingshan piedmont fault has exceeded the average recurrence interval, hence these three segments may be the possible places for future strong earthquakes.     

利用NOAA AVHRR数据研究北半球雪盖气候学特征

利用NOAA卫星图像,研究了北半球、欧亚、北美和青藏高原雪盖气候学特征及其变化趋势.指出北半球、欧亚和北美雪盖气候变化趋势基本一致,年均雪盖面积在1987年前后明显下降; 而青藏高原雪盖面积在1984年后明显下降,说明青藏高原雪盖的年际变化与北半球及欧亚、北美不完全一致.