近20年全球总云量变化趋势分析

利用ISCCP月平均云气候资料集的总云量资料, 采用趋势分析的方法, 得到1983年7月至2001年9月近20年来全球平均总云量的变化趋势, 并分析云量变化的可能原因。近20年全球增温幅度加快, 研究这期间云的变化, 对气候研究和模拟具有重要的意义。结果表明:平均大气环流决定总云量的分布;全球平均总云量的变化趋势在20世纪80年代末发生逆转, 即由增加转为减少;全球平均云量呈减少的变化趋势, 2000年与1987年相比, 减少量约占平均总云量的4%;从地理位置上看, 云量的变化存在区域性差异, 热带和中纬度地区的总云量减少较多, 高纬度地区云量略有增加, 其中南极大陆云量增加较多。     

A multidisciplinary multi-scale framework for assessing vulnerabilities to global change

Terrestrial ecosystems provide a number of vital services for people and society, such as food, fibre, water resources, carbon sequestration, and recreation. The future capability of ecosystems to provide these services is determined by changes in socio-economic factors, land use, atmospheric composition, and climate. Most impact assessments do not quantify the vulnerability of ecosystems and ecosystem services under such environmental change. They cannot answer important policy-relevant questions such as 'Which are the main regions or sectors that are most vulnerable to global change?’ 'How do the vulnerabilities of two regions compare?’ 'Which scenario is the least harmful for a sector?’This paper describes a new approach to vulnerability assessment developed by the Advanced Terrestrial Ecosystem Analysis and Modelling (ATEAM) project. Different ecosystem models, covering biodiversity, agriculture, forestry, hydrology, and carbon sequestration are fed with the same Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios based on the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Each model gives insights into specific ecosystems, as in traditional impact assessments. Moreover, by integrating the results in a vulnerability assessment, the policy-relevant questions listed above can also be addressed. A statistically derived European environmental stratification forms a key element in the vulnerability assessment. By linking it to other quantitative environmental stratifications, comparisons can be made using data from different assessments and spatial scales.     

地磁场与气候变化关系的新探索

对地磁场与气候变化的统计研究早已表明，二者有很好的相关关系。本文的目的是对它们的关系给出一种可能的物理解释。利用近600年的地磁场模型资料和全球平均温度序列分析了两者变化的关系，发现它们有很好的对应，且地磁场变化超前于全球气温变化。从地磁场的变化来看，21世纪初全球变暖的趋势应该减缓。文中对地表浅层热场（地热带、火山和地温场）的分布特征与地球内部软流圈－岩石圈边界上焦耳热场的分布特征进行了对比分析。结果表明，地表浅层热场与地球深层焦耳热的分布有很好的对应关系，这可能暗示地表浅层热场是地球深层焦耳热的反映，地磁场通过焦耳热的不断释旋影响气候变化。     

当代气候研究计划

就气候系统问题，国际上与气候及其变化有关的重要科学计划、尤其是气候变化及可预报性研究（CLIVAR）计划，作了简要介绍，同时还就气候预测问题作了讨论。     

近十年来我国气候变暖影响研究的若干进展

近年来，我国政府和科技界十分关注气候王馥棠变暖对我国经济发展可能影响的评估, 开展了许多重大项目和课题的研究。该文仅就气候变暖对我国自然植被、农业、森林、水资源、能源利用和区域海平面上升等领域影响评估研究的若干有意义的初步结果简要归纳和评述如下:取自不同GCM模型的未来气候变化情景下的影响评估模拟表明，我国的特征性自然植被类型将会发生明显的变化。同当前气候（1951~1980年）下的模拟分布相比，到2050年我国几乎所有地方的农业种植制度均将发生较大变化；气候变暖将导致复种指数增加和种植方式多样化，但降水与蒸散之间可能出现的负平衡和土壤水分胁迫的增加以及生育期的可能缩短，最终将导致我国主要作物的产量下降。气候变暖对我国水资源最明显的影响将会发生在黄淮海流域，这个区域的水资源供需短缺将大大提高。同时，气候变暖将改变我国室内取暖和降温的能源需求关系:北方冬季取暖的能源消耗将减少, 而南方夏季降温的能源消耗将会增加。海平面的上升将使我国三个主要沿海低洼脆弱区，即珠江三角洲、长江三角洲和黄河三角洲，面临部分遭受海水淹没的威胁。     

The presence, characteristics and earthquake implications of the St. Lawrence fault zone within and near Lake Ontario (Canada–USA)

Questions persist concerning the earthquake potential of the populous and industrial Lake Ontario (Canada–USA) area. Pertinent to those questions is whether the major fault zone that extends along the St. Lawrence River valley, herein named the St. Lawrence fault zone, continues upstream along the St. Lawrence River valley at least as far as Lake Ontario or terminates near Cornwall (Ontario, Canada)–Massena (NY, USA). New geological studies uncovered paleotectonic bedrock faults that are parallel to, and lie within, the projection of that northeast-oriented fault zone between Cornwall and northeastern Lake Ontario, suggesting that the fault zone continues into Lake Ontario. The aforementioned bedrock faults range from meters to tens of kilometers in length and display kinematically incompatible displacements, implying that the fault zone was periodically reactivated in the study area. Beneath Lake Ontario the Hamilton–Presqu'ile fault lines up with the St. Lawrence fault zone and projects to the southwest where it coincides with the Dundas Valley (Ontario, Canada). The Dundas Valley extends landward from beneath the western end of the lake and is marked by a vertical stratigraphic displacement across its width. The alignment of the Hamilton–Presqu'ile fault with the St. Lawrence fault zone strongly suggests that the latter crosses the entire length of Lake Ontario and continues along the Dundas Valley.The Rochester Basin, an east–northeast-trending linear trough in the southeastern corner of Lake Ontario, lies along the southern part of the St. Lawrence fault zone. Submarine dives in May 1997 revealed inclined layers of glaciolacustrine clay along two different scarps within the basin. The inclined layers strike parallel to the long dimension of the basin, and dip about 20° to the north–northwest suggesting that they are the result of rigid-body rotation consequent upon post-glacial faulting. Those post-glacial faults are growth faults as demonstrated by the consistently greater thickness, unit-by-unit, of unconsolidated sediments on the downthrown (northwest) side of the faults relative to their counterparts on the upthrown (southeast) side. Underneath the western part of Lake Ontario is a monoclinal warp that displaces the glacial and post-glacial sediments, and the underlying bedrock–sediment interface. Because of the post-glacial growth faults and the monoclinal warp the St. Lawrence fault zone is inferred to be tectonically active beneath Lake Ontario. Furthermore, within the lake it crosses at least five major faults and fault zones and coexists with other neotectonic structures. Those attributes, combined with the large earthquakes associated with the St. Lawrence fault zone well to the northeast of Lake Ontario, suggest that the seismic risk in the area surrounding and including Lake Ontario is likely much greater than previously believed.     

Origin of fine-scale sheeted granites by incremental injection of magma into active shear zones: examples from the Pilbara Craton, NW Australia

In the Archaean Pilbara Craton of Western Australia, three zones of heterogeneous centimetre- to metre-scale sheeted granites are interpreted to represent high-level, syn-magmatic shear zones. Evidence for the syn-magmatic nature of the shear zones include imbricated and asymmetrically rotated metre-scale orthogneiss xenoliths that are enveloped by leucogranite sheets that show no significant internal strain. At another locality, granite sheets have a strong shape-preferred alignment of K-feldspar, suggesting magmatic flow, while the asymmetric recrystallisation of the grain boundaries indicates that non-coaxial deformation continued acting upon the sheets under sub-solidus conditions. Elsewhere, randomly oriented centimetre-wide leucogranite dykes are realigned at a shear zone boundary to form semi-continuous, layer-parallel sheets within a magma-dominated, dextral shear zone.

It is proposed that the granite sheets formed by the incremental injection of magmas into active shear zones. Magma was sheared during laminar flow to produce the sheets that are aligned sub-parallel to the shear zone boundary. Individual sheets are fed by individual dykes, with up to 1000s of discrete injections in an individual shear zone. The sheets often lack microstructural evidence for magmatic flow, either because the crystal content of the magma was too low to record internal strain, or because of later recrystallisation.     

Contrasting rifted margin styles south of Greenland: implications for mantle plume dynamics

We present new and reprocessed seismic reflection data from the area where the southeast and southwest Greenland margins intersected to form a triple junction south of Greenland in the early Tertiary. During breakup at 56 Ma, thick igneous crust was accreted along the entire 1300-km-long southeast Greenland margin from the Greenland Iceland Ridge to, and possibly 100 km beyond, the triple junction into the Labrador Sea. However, highly extended and thin crust 250 km to the west of the triple junction suggests that magmatically starved crustal formation occurred on the southwest Greenland margin at the same time. Thus, a transition from a volcanic to a non-volcanic margin over only 100–200 km is observed. Magmatism related to the impact of the Iceland plume below the North Atlantic around 61 Ma is known from central-west and southeast Greenland. The new seismic data also suggest the presence of a small volcanic plateau of similar age close to the triple junction. The extent of initial plume-related volcanism inferred from these observations is explained by a model of lateral flow of plume material that is guided by relief at the base of the lithosphere. Plume mantle is channelled to great distances provided that significant melting does not take place. Melting causes cooling and dehydration of the plume mantle. The associated viscosity increase acts against lateral flow and restricts plume material to its point of entry into an actively spreading rift. We further suggest that thick Archaean lithosphere blocked direct flow of plume material into the magma-starved southwest Greenland margin while the plume was free to flow into the central west and east Greenland margins. The model is consistent with a plume layer that is only moderately hotter, 100–200°C, than ambient mantle temperature, and has a thickness comparable to lithospheric thickness variations, 50–100 km. Lithospheric architecture, the timing of continental rifting and viscosity changes due to melting of the plume material are therefore critical parameters for understanding the distribution of magmatism.     

A rifted inside corner massif on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge at 5°S

The structure of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge at 5°S was investigated during a recent cruise with the FS Meteor. A major dextral transform fault (hereafter the 5°S FZ) offsets the ridge left-laterally by 80 km. Just south of the transform and to the west of the median valley, the inside corner (IC – the region bounded by the ridge and the active transform) is marked by a major massif, characterized by a corrugated upper surface. Fossil IC massifs can also be identified further to the west. Unusually, a massif almost as high as the IC massif also characterizes the outside corner (OC) south of the inactive fracture zone and to the east of the median valley. This OC massif has axis-parallel dimensions identical to the IC massif and both are bounded on their sides closest to the spreading axis by abrupt, steep slopes. An axial volcanic ridge is well developed in the median valley both south of the IC/OC massifs and in an abandoned rift valley to the east of the OC massif, but is absent along the new ridge-axis segment between the IC and OC massifs. Wide-angle seismic data show that between the massifs, the crust of the median valley thins markedly towards the FZ. These observations are consistent with the formation of the OC massif by the rifting of an IC core complex and the development of a new spreading centre between the IC and OC massifs. The split IC massif presents an opportunity to study the internal structure of the footwall of a detachment fault, from the corrugated fault surface to deeper beneath the fault, without recourse to drilling. Preliminary dredging recovered gabbros from the scarp slope of the rifted IC massif, and serpentinites and gabbros from the intersection of this scarp with the corrugated surface. This is compatible with a concentration of serpentinites along the detachment surface, even where the massif internally is largely plutonic in nature.