新冠肺炎疫情对经济全球化的影响分析

新冠肺炎疫情是第二次世界大战以来世界面临的最大危机,给世界带来巨大的冲击,包括人们的心理和生活、经济增长与就业、国家治理及世界治理等。这些影响使很多学者、评论家、大众、企业家乃至政府官员产生了非常悲观的情绪,舆论中不乏经济全球化将终结、全球供应链将大规模调整、世界治理格局将彻底改变等言论。本文通过建立“全球化的三角结构”剖析了经济全球化的动力机制,并结合疫情对世界的主要影响,试图揭示后疫情时代经济全球化的走势。我们认为,资本的“空间出路”、技术的“时空压缩”和国家的开放程度是驱动经济全球化的三个基本力量,这三者的变化及其相互作用结果影响着全球化进程。从动力机制看,全球化是一个没有终点且不断变化的历史过程,它不会倒退,而是波动。过去半个世纪以来,世界各国已经被全球化紧密地联系在一起,相互脱钩的代价极其昂贵,没有国家会选择完全脱钩。所谓的逆全球化现象,是全球化发展过程中世界格局变化及各国应对策略调整的结果。新冠肺炎疫情并不能影响全球化的资本和技术驱动力,但是可能影响国家的开放程度。如果疫情持续时间不是很长,经济全球化将很快会回归原有的发展轨迹,继续进行调整。各国也将继续围绕经济全球化进行斗争、妥协、再斗争,直至形成一个相对稳定的状态。因此,经济全球化可能因为应对疫情而踩下急刹车,甚至暂退半步,但很快将继续前行,向着“包容性全球化”的方向发展。     

Magnetostriction of Fe81Ga19 oriented crystals

The effect of the orientation on the magnetostriction in Fe₈₁Ga₁₉ alloy has been investigated experimentally and theoretically. The Fe₈₁Ga₁₉ [001] and [110] oriented crystals were prepared and the magnetostriction was measured under different pre-stress. The saturation magnetostriction of the [001] oriented crystal increases from 170×10^-6 to 330×10^-6 under the pre-stress from 0 to 50 MPa. The [110] oriented crystal has a saturation magnetostriction from 20×10^-6 to 140×10^-6 with the compressive pre-stress from 0 to 40 MPa. The magnetostriction of [001] and [110] oriented crystals has been simulated based on the phenomenological theory. The domain rotation path has been determined and the resultant magnetostriction calculated under different pre-stress. The experimental and simulated results both show that the [001] oriented crystal exhibits better magnetostriction than [110] oriented crystal. The enhancement of the saturation magnetostriction by the compressive pre-stress in the [110] oriented crystal is higher than that in the [001] oriented crystal.     

后疫情时期全球铁矿资源格局分析

铁是我国用量最大、用途最广的金属,新冠肺炎疫情期间国际铁矿石市场出现较多新变化,分析国际铁矿石供需和市场格局变化原因,研判未来趋势,对于保障我国铁矿石资源稳定供应具有重要意义.本文首先分析了新冠肺炎疫情下,全球钢铁产量、铁矿石供应和价格变化趋势,分析发现受新冠肺炎疫情影响,全球铁矿石供需格局进一步集中,呈现"两个国家,...     

基于多源时空大数据的区际迁徙人群多层次空间分布估算模型——以COVID-19疫情期间自武汉迁出人群为例

已有研究很少关注区际迁徙人群在不同尺度上空间分布的动态估算问题。COVID-19疫情爆发以来,坚决防止疫情扩散成为社会最紧迫的事情。在2020年1月23日武汉“封城”前夕,已有500多 万人离开了武汉,快速准确地推算这部分人群的去向,可以为防止疫情扩散和制定防疫决策提供科学依据。本文以此为例,基于开源腾讯位置请求大数据、百度迁徙大数据、土地覆盖数据等多源地理时空大数据,提出一种区际迁徙人群多层次空间分布动态估算模型,用于推算2020年除夕 （2020年1月24日）之前从武汉流入湖北省内各地的人群数量及其分布特征。结果显示：① 春节时段湖北省各地级市农村地 区人群增加数量占人群变化总量的比例平均达124.7%,从武汉市迁入各地级市的人群中至少51.3%流入农村地区;② 区县尺 度人群变化总量的空间分布呈现3个圈层结构：第一圈层为疫情核心区,包括武汉及其周边地区,以人群流出为主;第二圈层为 重点关注区,包括黄冈、黄石、仙桃、天门、潜江、随州、襄阳,以及孝感、荆门、荆州和咸宁的部分地区,以人群总量和农村地区人 群数量大幅增加为主;第三圈层为次级关注区,包括湖北西部宜昌、恩施、神农架和荆门部分地区,以人群小幅流入为主。最后,建议湖北省内,尤其是位于第二圈层内的区县,应高度关注农村地区人群的疫情防控。此研究成果在2~3天完成,显示大数据是可以快速地响应重大公共安全事件,为决策的制定提供一定支持的。     

渤海湾盆地渤中19- 6凝析气田凝析油成熟度判定及成因意义

关于渤海湾盆地渤中19- 6凝析气田凝析油成熟度存在成熟与高成熟两种截然不同观点,尚未达到统一定论。本文综合利用轻烃、饱和烃和芳烃成熟度参数对凝析油成熟度进行了综合判定,并深入分析了凝析油和天然气的成因关系及凝析气藏形成机制。结果表明：异庚烷值与庚烷值、Ts/（Ts+Tm）与C29Ts/（C29Ts+C29H）、甲基单金刚烷指数与甲基双金刚烷指数、甲基菲指数、二苯并噻吩类成熟度参数和TNR2显示渤中19- 6凝析气田凝析油处于成熟阶段。结合天然气成熟度和储层流体包裹体特征,可知渤中19- 6凝析气田的原油成藏期早于天然气,随着晚期大量天然气的充注,油气会发生相控混溶作用形成含液态烃的气流体,当温度和压力达到混溶后烃类体系的露点以上,则形成凝析气藏。     

The HELLAS2XMM survey – XII. The infrared/submillimetre view of an X-ray selected type 2 quasar at z≈ 2

We present multiwavelength observations (from optical to submillimetre, including Spitzer and Submillimetre Common-User Bolometer Array) of H2XMMJ 003357.2−120038 (also GD 158_19), an X-ray selected, luminous narrow-line (type 2) quasar at   z = 1.957  selected from the HELLAS2XMM survey. Its broad-band properties can be reasonably well modelled assuming three components: a stellar component to account for the optical and near-infrared (IR) emission; an active galactic nucleus (AGN) component (i.e. dust heated by an accreting active nucleus), dominant in the mid-IR, with an optical depth at 9.7      along the line of sight (close to the equatorial plane of the obscuring matter) of  τ(9.7) = 1  and a full covering angle of the reprocessing matter (torus) of 140° and a far-IR starburst component (i.e. dust heated by star formation) to reproduce the wide bump observed longward of 70      .
The derived star formation rate is  ≈1500 M_⊙ yr⁻¹  . The overall modelling indicates that GD 158_19 is a high-redshift X-ray luminous, obscured quasar with coeval powerful AGN activity and intense star formation. It is probably caught before the process of expelling the obscuring gas has started, thus quenching the star formation.     

Secularization in the Netherlands in its historical and geographical dimensions

The Netherlands is one of the most secularized countries in the western world. The aim of this paper is to put the secularization process in both historical and geographical perspective. As a mass process secularization started in the last quarter of the nineteenth century and accelerated from the sixties of this century onwards. The first concentrations of non-denominationalism could be found in the (Protestant) countryside of Friesland and Groningen as a consequence of profound social cleavages. Then, the big cities in the west took part in the process and more recently even the Catholic areas were affected due to the cultural revolution of the sixties and early seventies. Two counterforces were analysed: a religious revival within the Protestant community and the increasing proportion of Muslims and Hindus as a consequence of immigration and high fertility levels. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Analysis of 19-year tidal data

19-year tidal data of the 3 stations, Huludao, Qinhuangdao and Kanmen, have totally been analysed, and the amplitudes and phases of 472 tidal constituents have been calculated with a resolution of Δσ⩾ 0.002 2°/h. Based on the draconitic tide, the anornalistic tide and pole tide obtained, the ultra-long-period variations of the mean sea level have been predicted. The annual tidal analysis of 19-year data at the above-mentioned stations and at Tanggu, Longkou has been carried out. The stability of the annual tidal analysis has been investigated with regard to the astronomical factors, the nonlinear effects and the variations of sea-bottom topography.     

COVID-19疫情冲击下的中国对外贸易韧性格局及影响因素

COVID-19疫情全球爆发,成为载入史册的一次全球公共卫生事件。在此期间,中国贸易的变化反映了突发公共卫生事件对全球和地方贸易的影响,凸显了中国的贸易韧性。借鉴区域经济韧性理论开展中国贸易韧性的格局和影响因素研究,利用2020年1—12月中国31个省（自治区、直辖市）的贸易数据,对其贸易的整体状况和贸易韧性格局进行分析,并运用地理探测器的方法对疫情冲击下的中国贸易韧性格局的影响因素进行探讨。研究发现：① 根据与2019年同期比较,可将中国贸易韧性变化过程划分为两个阶段,2020年1—5月为抵抗期,2020年6—12月为恢复期。② 在疫情影响下,各省份的贸易韧性具有较大差异,贸易抵抗性较好的区域主要包括四川、陕西、江西等内陆中西部省份和河北省,较差的区域主要为对外贸易基础较差、疫情严重地区以及边境省份。而贸易恢复性较好的主要为云南、贵州等内陆省份和疫情冲击影响最严重的湖北省。③ 疫情冲击下影响中国贸易韧性的因素是多源的,整体来看最大贸易国疫情严重程度、贸易伙伴数量、本地疫情严重程度因子等对贸易抵抗性解释度最高;对贸易恢复性解释度最高的因子为地区经济发展水平和医药产业状况。除了各维度因子不同程度的影响,各因子间的交互作用均增强了贸易抵抗性与恢复性的空间分异性。关于中国贸易韧性格局及影响因素的探讨,对认识特殊事件冲击下的全球化进程和区域贸易韧性评估具有重要的理论价值,也对构建中国国内国际双循环新发展格局具有重要的实践意义。