面向地震设防风险的未来中国城乡人口情景及暴露特征

中国城镇和乡村住房建筑地震设防水平差距较大,暴露在低设防农村与高密集城镇下的人口因此面临较高的地震风险,面向地震设防风险分析未来城乡人口及暴露特征具有重要意义。本文基于地震烈度区划图和人口-发展-环境（PDE）模型,模拟分析了5种共享社会经济路径（SSPs）情景下的未来城乡人口地震灾害时空暴露。结果表明：(1)除SSP3下城镇人口数量持续增加外,其他SSP情景下各地区城镇人口数量均先增后降,农村人口数量受城镇化影响呈持续下降趋势;(2)城镇与农村地震灾害高、较高人口暴露等级空间分布相似,集中在华北、西南与东部沿海地区;(3)相较于有设防的城镇地区,无设防农村地震人口暴露等级偏高,高暴露、较高暴露等级的数量偏多,未来城镇人口暴露等级有所上升,而农村人口暴露等级逐渐降低。     

一种新的声速剖面结构参数化方法

在Munk模型和GDEM模型的基础上,提出了一种新的声速剖面结构参数化模型,即分层声速剖面模型(LSSPM).模型用含9个参数的四层分段函数分别描述混合层、主跃层、深海声道层和深海等温层的声速结构,形式简明、直观.数值实验结果表明,LSSPM模型对声速剖面的拟合可达到较高的精度,且对于中国周边的深海和浅海区域有较好的适...     

The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy,land use,and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview

This paper presents the overview of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and their energy, land use, and emissions implications. The SSPs are part of a new scenario framework, established by the climate change research community in order to facilitate the integrated analysis of future climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation. The pathways were developed over the last years as a joint community effort and describe plausible major global developments that together would lead in the future to different challenges for mitigation and adaptation to climate change. The SSPs are based on five narratives describing alternative socio-economic developments, including sustainable development, regional rivalry, inequality, fossil-fueled development, and middle-of-the-road development. The long-term demographic and economic projections of the SSPs depict a wide uncertainty range consistent with the scenario literature. A multi-model approach was used for the elaboration of the energy, land-use and the emissions trajectories of SSP-based scenarios. The baseline scenarios lead to global energy consumption of 400–1200 EJ in 2100, and feature vastly different land-use dynamics, ranging from a possible reduction in cropland area up to a massive expansion by more than 700 million hectares by 2100. The associated annual CO₂ emissions of the baseline scenarios range from about 25 GtCO₂ to more than 120 GtCO₂ per year by 2100. With respect to mitigation, we find that associated costs strongly depend on three factors: (1) the policy assumptions, (2) the socio-economic narrative, and (3) the stringency of the target. The carbon price for reaching the target of 2.6 W/m² that is consistent with a temperature change limit of 2 °C, differs in our analysis thus by about a factor of three across the SSP marker scenarios. Moreover, many models could not reach this target from the SSPs with high mitigation challenges. While the SSPs were designed to represent different mitigation and adaptation challenges, the resulting narratives and quantifications span a wide range of different futures broadly representative of the current literature. This allows their subsequent use and development in new assessments and research projects. Critical next steps for the community scenario process will, among others, involve regional and sectoral extensions, further elaboration of the adaptation and impacts dimension, as well as employing the SSP scenarios with the new generation of earth system models as part of the 6th climate model intercomparison project (CMIP6).     

A Post-Processing Method for the Removal of Refraction Artifacts in Multibeam Bathymetry Data

Sound refraction artifacts are often present in multibeam swath bathymetry data. For a flat array, the artifacts are usually more serious in outer beams than in inner beams. In a 3D topographical mapping they appear as ridges that parallel the tracks of the vessel. To shorten the survey time, the outer beams should be utilized as often as possible. Therefore, the refraction errors should be removed. In this paper, we present a model of reduced sound speed profile that consists of three water layers. The sound speed of the two upper layers has a constant gradient, and the third layer has the same sound speed as the most bottom measured layer. The model parameters can be searched based on the principle of the minimum difference of depth between the overlap of two neighboring swaths. The horizontal position and depth of each beam can be accordingly recalculated using the model parameters. To avoid being trapped in local optimum, the initial search scope is limited according to assumed lunch angle and travel time in each subregion. The method is verified by comparing the simulated and real data.     

浅水多波束勘测数据精细处理方法

系统分析多波束勘测水深的误差表现,针对性地提出相应的改正措施,首先去掉勘测质量差的重复覆盖条带,改正横摇校准残差,然后根据提出的浅水常梯度声速模型,搜索确定模型参数,以此模型参数及波束到达角和旅行时对每个波束重新进行归位计算,接着自动删除多余边缘波束,最后网格化水深数据并以对应的波束号确定中央和边缘波束位置,对格网中边缘波束进行强制微调,得到光滑的格网水深数据。从实测数据结果来看,本文算法物理意义明确、切实可行、后处理速度较快,改正结果较理想。     

体积排阻高效液相色谱-电感耦合等离子体质谱法同时测定印度芥菜(Brassica Juncea)中镉铜锌形态

建立了体积排阻高效液相色谱-电感耦合等离子体质谱法同时测定印度芥菜中镉、铜、锌形态分析方法。为了防止巯基化合物氧化反应的发生,样品采取液氮保护并在-70℃保存,样品分析全流程采取氮吹防氧化措施。在镉、铜、锌胁迫下,诱导产生植物螯合肽(PCs)。在叶片和根部均检测到3种元素的4种形态,植物螯合肽(PC)3-Cd(Cu,Zn)、植物螯合肽(PC)2-Cd(Cu,Zn)、谷胱甘肽(GSH)-Cd(Cu,Zn)、半胱胺酸(Cys)-Cd(Cu,Zn)及其在植物体内的分布规律。结合植物不同部位Cd、Cu、Zn分布规律初步推断,Cd、Cu、Zn在与GSH及Cys的结合上存在竞争。     

中国近海声速剖面的模态特征

利用WOA05数据集提供的气候态声速场数据,通过模糊C-均值聚类分析,得到了中国近海声速剖面模态特征的区域性分布和季节性变化。结果表明,中国近海的声速剖面结构可分为深海型(D型)、浅海型(S型)和过渡型(T型)三个基本类型。深海型剖面为"季节性跃层/正梯度+主跃层+深海声道+深海正梯度"结构,南海和菲律宾海因所属水系不同呈现出明显差异;浅海型剖面季节性变化强烈,冬季为正梯度或均匀型结构,其它季节为"混合层+季节性跃层+下均匀层"结构,负梯度强度与季节性跃层的变化有关,在夏季达到最强;过渡型剖面形态与邻近的深海型上层结构类似,但因受地形制约产生与深海型不同的声传播特征。海面太阳辐射、海洋环流、混合层以及水团配置的季节性变化导致的温盐场空间分布差异是造成不同海区、不同季节声场速剖面结构差异的根本原因。