Characteristics of wet-snow avalanche activity: 20 years of observations from a high alpine valley (Dischma,Switzerland)

The occurrence of wet-snow avalanches is, in general, poorly understood. For 20 years (winters of 1975–1976 to 1994–1995), the avalanche activity has been observed in the Dischma valley near Davos (Eastern Swiss Alps). The study area comprises a large starting zone of north-easterly aspect (2,300 m a.s.l.) with several avalanche paths. We have analyzed the occurrence data in combination with meteorological and snowpack data collected at an elevation of 2,090 m a.s.l. During the 20-year observation period, almost 800 wet-snow avalanches were observed, about 4.5 times more loose snow avalanches than slab avalanches. Considering both types of avalanches jointly, snow depth, precipitation and air temperature showed the highest correlation with avalanche activity. Most loose snow avalanches occurred when air temperature was high and/or after a precipitation period. Slab avalanches occurrence was primarily related to warm air temperatures and snowpack properties such as the isothermal state and the existence of capillary barriers. Radiation did not show up as a significant variable. The results suggest that in a transitional snow climate wet-snow avalanches are, as dry snow avalanches, often related to precipitation events, and that wet slab instability strongly depends on snowpack properties in relation to warming of the snowpack and melt water production.     

大气悬浮颗粒物粒谱分析研究

本文对大气悬浮颗粒物的测量是利用半导体激光器，通过镜片组形成双光斑，当颗粒物经过双光斑时发生散射，由雪崩二极管检测散射光形成双峰信号，双峰间距即为待测粒子通过双光斑时的飞行时间，利用飞行时间可得到相应的粒径大小. 大量的实验表明空气中的粒谱呈正态高斯分布，这点与理论分析结果相一致.     

Tracking performance of a HSGPS receiver under avalanche deposited snow

The tracking performance of High Sensitivity Global Positioning System (HSGPS) receivers under avalanche deposited snow was investigated. Two field trials were held during April 2006 in the Canadian Rocky Mountains to study the factors affecting GPS signals and positioning performance for avalanche rescue. The PLAN Group at the University of Calgary has developed the miniature Global Navigation Asset Tracker (GNAT™) which integrates the SiRFstar III HSGPS receivers with a microcontroller, onboard flash storage and a 2.4 GHz Zigbee radio modem. The test systems were placed down a 6 cm hole bored in avalanche deposited snow for 2.5 h with data collected at 1 Hz. Post-mission analysis showed average GPS signal attenuation of approximately 11 to 13 dB within the first 1.5 m of avalanche debris. Sufficient GPS signals for positioning were received by GPS receivers buried in 2.7 m of avalanche deposited snow. Methods of improving the GPS position beneath the avalanche debris were investigated, resulting in horizontal position RMS values of 7.4 and 2.8 m at depths of 2.0 and 2.68 m respectively.     

雪崩灾害的遥感量化分析与工程选线

为评估雪崩灾害对道路工程方案的影响与危害,基于多时相高分辨率IKONOS卫星立体图像或机载激光雷达数据生成雪崩灾害区域高密度、高精度数字地面模型(DEM)与高分辨率数字正射影像(DOM),自动提取雪崩灾害的成灾与孕灾因子,并进行量化动态分析,采用层次分析法构建雪崩灾害加权评估模型,实现工程选址及方案比选与优化设计.该方法在西藏墨脱公路的应用表明,雪崩灾害的遥感量化分析与评估,全面、准确地对区域雪崩灾害进行了定性与定量分析,科学、合理地确定了工程方案.     

Volcanology of the 2350 B.P. Eruption of Mount Meager Volcanic Complex, British Columbia, Canada: implications for Hazards from Eruptions in Topographically Complex Terrain

 The Pebble Creek Formation (previously known as the Bridge River Assemblage) comprises the eruptive products of a 2350 calendar year B.P. eruption of the Mount Meager volcanic complex and two rock avalanche deposits. Volcanic rocks of the Pebble Creek Formation are the youngest known volcanic rocks of this complex. They are dacitic in composition and contain phenocrysts of plagioclase, orthopyroxene, amphibole, biotite and minor oxides in a glassy groundmass. The eruption was episodic, and the formation comprises fallout pumice (Bridge River tephra), pyroclastic flows, lahars and a lava flow. It also includes a unique form of welded block and ash breccia derived from collapsing fronts of the lava flow. This Merapi-type breccia dammed the Lillooet River. Collapse of the dam triggered a flood that flowed down the Lillooet Valley. The flood had an estimated total volume of 10⁹ m³ and inundated the Lillooet Valley to a depth of at least 30 m above the paleo-valley floor 5.5 km downstream of the blockage. Rock avalanches comprising mainly blocks of Plinth Assemblage volcanic rocks (an older formation making up part of the Mount Meager volcanic complex) underlie and overlie the primary volcanic units of the Formation. Both rock avalanches are unrelated to the 2350 B.P. eruption, although the post-eruption avalanche may have its origins in the over-steepened slopes created by the explosive phase of the eruption. Much of the stratigraphic complexity evident in the Pebble Creek Formation results from deposition in a narrow, steep-sided mountain valley containing a major river. Received: 20 January 1998 / Accepted: 29 September 1998     

Bayesian stochastic modelling for avalanche predetermination: from a general system framework to return period computations

Stochastic models are recent but unavoidable tools for snow avalanche hazard mapping that can be described in a general system framework. For the computation of design return periods, magnitude and frequency have to be evaluated. The magnitude model consists of a set of physical equations for avalanche propagation associated with a statistical formalism adapted to the input–output data structure. The friction law includes at least one latent friction coefficient. The Bayesian paradigm and the associated simulation techniques assist considerably in performing the inference and taking estimation errors into account for prediction. Starting from the general case, simplifying hypotheses allows computing the predictive distribution of high return periods on a case-study. Only release and runout altitudes are considered so that the model can use the French database. An inversible propagation model makes it possible to work with the latent friction coefficient as if it is observed. Prior knowledge is borrowed from an avalanche path with similar topographical characteristics. Justifications for the working hypotheses and further developments are discussed. In particular, the whole approach is positioned with respect to both deterministic and stochastic hydrology.     

One and a half century of avalanche risk to settlements in the upper Maurienne valley inferred from land cover and socio-environmental changes.

Changes in mountain landscape can affect avalanche activity, causing changes in risk, potentially enhanced by a transition of the socio-environmental system and its underlying dynamics. Thus, integrative approaches combining biophysical and social sciences are required to assess changes in risk in all its dimensions. This study proposes a holistic methodology combining land cover change detection using advanced image processing techniques, geohistorical investigations and qualitative modelling of risk changes in order to infer the evolution of avalanche risk and its drivers in the upper Maurienne (French Alps) from 1860 to 2017. Results show that a continuous increase of forested areas associated with the retraction of agro-pastoral zones followed a period of land abandonment and depopulation. However, reforestation within avalanche paths remains largely incomplete and mostly absent in the majority of release areas, making a decrease in avalanche occurrence and propagation unlikely. This, combined with marked urban sprawl partially concentrated in avalanche prone areas, locally increased the exposure of residential settlements to avalanches. Hence, even if new defense structures have been set up, our analysis indicates that avalanche risk in the upper Maurienne increased through the study period. Even if local specificity related to physical dissimilarities and/or distinguished socio-economic trends always exist, our results may be valid for many high alpine valleys. Our approach is also transferable to other natural hazards, notably in wider mountain environments, as a contribution to the elaboration of effective adaptation strategies in a context of increasing risks related to combined climate change and socio-economic transitions.     

天山西部寒区山地生态系统近40年来气候变化特征——以中国科学院天山积雪雪崩研究站为例

揭示区域气候变化,可以为区域产业发展的优化与调控、林牧业的可持续发展以及能源和矿产资源开发对区域生态环境影响研究提供重要的理论依据.利用中国科学院天山积雪雪崩研究站1968~2007年的气温、降水等资料,应用统计方法分析天山西部寒区山地生态系统近40 a的气候变化特征.结果表明:该区在20世纪70年代属偏冷干时期,80年代为逐渐转暖的偏暖湿时期,90年代为异常暖干时期,2l世纪前4 a气候较为暖湿.该区气候整体上向暖湿方向变化.     

Avalanche cycles in Austria: an analysis of the major events in the last 50 years

During the last 50 years, an average of 30 persons per year was killed by avalanches in Austria. About one-third of all avalanche fatalities occurred as a result of so-called ‘catastrophic avalanches’. ‘Catastrophic avalanches’ are spontaneously released avalanches that affect villages and cause damage to property (buildings, roads and other infrastructure). The biggest avalanche events in Austria were in 1950/1951 (135 fatalities), in 1953/1954 (143 fatalities) and in February 1999, when 38 persons were killed in Galtür and Valzur. This article deals with an analysis of nine major avalanche cycles in the last 55 years. An avalanche cycle in this article is defined as 50 recorded avalanches of at least size 3 in two days and/or 5 persons killed in villages within two days. The basis of this study are the well-documented records from Fliri (1998), who analysed natural disasters in the western part of Austria and the Trentino, including floods, mudflows, earthquakes and avalanches. The meteorological data were taken from two relevant observation sites in the northern part of the Austrian Alps, from two sites in an intermediate and continental region, respectively and from one site in the southern part of the Austrian Alps. Atmospheric patterns were analysed by using weather charts for the relevant periods. Both the meteorological data and the weather charts were provided by the Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG). It was found that there was a major cycle every 6 years (on average). Two-thirds of all investigated cycles were characterised by a continuous increase of snow depth over a period of at least three days. In only three periods (1975, 1986, 1988), daily extreme values could be observed. More than 40% of all the cycles occurred in January. In two-thirds, a north-westerly oriented frontal zone was responsible for the formation of a major cycle. The remaining cycles were released by low-pressure areas over Central Europe and the Mediterranean Sea, respectively.     

Avalanche hazards and mitigation in Austria: a review

At all times natural hazards like torrents or avalanches pose a threat to settlements and infrastructures in the Austrian Alps. Since 1950 more than 1,600 persons have been killed by avalanches in Austria, which is on average approximately 30 fatalities per year. In particular, the winter periods 1950/1951 and 1953/1954 stand out with more than 100 fatalities. Those events led to an increase of avalanche control programmes in the following decades. While from the 1950s to the 1970s emphasis was placed on permanent measures (technical structures, afforestations, hazard zoning ...) additional programmes such as avalanche warning and forecasting have supplemented avalanche control measures in the last decades. Current research is focused on avalanche simulation, risk management and the influence of the forest on avalanche formation. An important area of future research is to develop improved methods for avalanche forecasting and to intensify the investigation of the dynamics of avalanches.