Storminess and vulnerability along the Atlantic coastlines of Europe: analysis of storm records and of a greenhouse gases induced climate scenario

Identification of the distinctive circulation patterns of storminess on the Atlantic margin of Europe forms the main objective of this study; dealing with storm frequency, intensity and tracking. The climatology of the extratropical cyclones that affect this region has been examined for the period 1940–1998. Coastal meteorological data from Ireland to Spain have been linked to the cyclone history for the North Atlantic in the analysis of storm records for European coasts. The study examines the evolution in the occurrence of storms since the 1940s and also their relationship with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Results indicate a seasonal shift in the wind climate, with regionally more severe winters and calmer summers established. This pattern appears to be linked to a northward displacement in the main North Atlantic cyclone track.

An experiment with the ECHAM4 A-GCM at high resolution (T106) has also been used to model the effect of a greenhouse gases induced warming climate on the climatology of coastal storms in the region. The experiment consists of (1), a 30-year control time-slice representing present-day equivalent CO₂ concentrations and (2), a 30-year perturbed period corresponding to a time when the radiative forcing has doubled in terms of equivalent CO₂ concentrations. The boundary conditions have been obtained from an atmosphere-ocean coupled OA-GCM simulation at low horizontal resolution. An algorithm was developed to allow the identification of individual cyclone movements in selected coastal zones. For most of the northern part of the study region, covering Ireland and Scotland, results describe the establishment by ca. 2060 of a tendency for fewer but more intense storms.

The impacts of these changes in storminess for the vulnerability of European Atlantic coasts are considered. For low-lying, exposed and ‘soft’ sedimentary coasts, as in Ireland, these changes in storminess are likely to result in significant localised increases in coastal erosion.     

辽河盆地大民屯凹陷流体压力特征

大民屯凹陷是辽河断陷内4个下第三系凹陷之一。在综合利用钻井、试井及地震等资料的基础上，系统研究并论述了大民屯凹陷流体压力特征。基于57口井的声波测井资料，凹陷内泥岩压力特征可区分为正常压力、异常压力或强超压等类型；根据152口井391个点的压力测试数据，凹陷内产油层段的压力梯度多接近于1；利用公式法模拟计算了47条地震剖面的流体压力、剩余压力及压力系数的分布特征，凹陷内剖面压力系统自上而下一般由正常压力、弱超压和强超压3部分组成。此外，还根据流体压力演化的基本原理及钻井、岩性与试井等实际资料，模拟恢复了大民屯凹陷的压力演化史，其可划分为超压原始积累、超压部分释放及超压再积聚3个阶段。总体上，大民屯凹陷的超压强度低于渤海湾盆地其他地区的超压强度。     

潮汐调和分析的一种算法

本文在常规潮汐调和分析方法的基础上，提出了一种由高低潮资料进行潮汐分析的算法。具体计算表明，该算法与现今通用的常规算法（即等间隔最小二乘法）相比，既可大大减少所需原始样本量，在相同记录长度内，是常规算法的三分之一还少，同时减少样本处理的前期工作量；又能保证潮位拟合的精度和预报的可信度，两者精度相当，结果一致。该算法原理简单、实用有效，对于局部样本缺损较易处理，具有实际应用价值。     

夏季东海西部表层海水中的pCO2及海-气界面通量

根据2001年夏季长江口及东海西部海域表层海水pCO     

A Compact Explicit Difference Scheme of High Accuracy for Extended Boussinesq Equations

Presented here is a compact explicit difference scheme of high accuracy for solving the extended Boussinesq equations.For time discretization,a three-stage explicit Runge-Kutta method with TVD property is used at predicting stage,a cubic spline function is adopted at correcting stage,which made the time discretization accuracy up to fourth order;For spatial discretization,a three-point explicit compact difference scheme with arbitrary order accuracy is employed.The extended Boussinesq equations derived by Beji and Nadaoka are solved by the proposed scheme.The numerical results agree well with the experimental data.At the same time,the comparisons of the two numerical results between the present scheme and low accuracy difference method are made,which further show the necessity of using high accuracy scheme to solve the extended Boussinesq equations.As a valid sample,the wave propagation on the rectangular step is formulated by the present scheme,the modelled results are in better agreement with the experimental data than those of Kittitanasuan.     

波浪作用下海床的有效应力分析

波浪作用下海床的稳定性分析是海洋工程地质评价的重要内容。海床的稳定性可通过计算分析其随时间变化的有效应力场来评估。本文建议了一个周期荷载作用下土体的本构模型 ,并用于计算波浪作用下海床的应力与变形。采用Biot固结理论和有限单元法 ,分析了海床的动态应力场与孔隙水压力场。波浪作用下两种渗透系数时有效应力的动态变化过程结果对比 ,反映了渗透消散作用对海床有效应力变化的影响