The initial subevent of the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake: Is earthquake size predictable?

We examine the initial subevent (ISE) of the M 6.7, 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake in order to discriminate between two end-member rupture initiation models: the preslip and cascade models. Final earthquake size may be predictable from an ISE's seismic signature in the preslip model but not in the cascade model. In the cascade model ISEs are simply small earthquakes that can be described as purely dynamic ruptures. In this model a large earthquake is triggered by smaller earthquakes; there is no size scaling between triggering and triggered events and a variety of stress transfer mechanisms are possible. Alternatively, in the preslip model, a large earthquake nucleates as an aseismically slipping patch in which the patch dimension grows and scales with the earthquake's ultimate size; the byproduct of this loading process is the ISE. In this model, the duration of the ISE signal scales with the ultimate size of the earthquake, suggesting that nucleation and earthquake size are determined by a more predictable, measurable, and organized process. To distinguish between these two end-member models we use short period seismograms recorded by the Southern California Seismic Network. We address questions regarding the similarity in hypocenter locations and focal mechanisms of the ISE and the mainshock. We also compare the ISE's waveform characteristics to those of small earthquakes and to the beginnings of earthquakes with a range of magnitudes. We find that the focal mechanisms of the ISE and mainshock are indistinguishable, and both events may have nucleated on and ruptured the same fault plane. These results satisfy the requirements for both models and thus do not discriminate between them. However, further tests show the ISE's waveform characteristics are similar to those of typical small earthquakes in the vicinity and more importantly, do not scale with the mainshock magnitude. These results are more consistent with the cascade model.     

地震前低频事件的实验研究

介绍了几种强震前超低频事件的观测证据,并通过实验,研究了产生和传播机理。初步结果表明,微破裂的集结和断层的破裂起始会出现超低频脉冲,并透射到空气中形成次声波。塑性体的冲击或超临界流体的膨胀比脆性破裂更容易激发（超）低频波,且不伴随明显高频辐射成分。这样可以较为合理地解释震前“平衡”背景下的（超）低频事件。对实验中破坏前的低频脉冲给出了断裂力学解释。断裂力学的实验和膨胀－－扩容理论证明了震前会产生断层的张裂隙,从而为超临界流体提供了运移空间。流体在运移过程中突然涨缩会激发（超）低频辐射波。讨论了改进（超）低频事件的观测条件问题。     

Products and Mechanism of the Gas Phase Reaction of Ozone with β-Pinene

Gas phase ozonolysis of -pinene was performedin a 570 l static reactor at 730 Torr and 296 K insynthetic air and the products were analysed by acombination of gas phase FTIR spectroscopy, HPLC andIC analyses of gas phase and aerosol samples,respectively. The reaction mechanism was investigatedby adding HCHO, HCOOH and H₂O as Criegeeintermediate scavenger and cyclohexane as OH radicalscavenger. Main identified products (yields inparentheses) in the presence of cyclohexane as OHradical scavenger were HCHO (0.65 ± 0.04),nopinone (0.16 ± 0.04), 3-hydroxy-nopinone (0.15± 0.05), CO₂ (0.20 ± 0.04), CO (0.030± 0.002), HCOOH (0.020 ± 0.002), the secondaryozonide of -pinene (0.16 ± 0.05), andcis-pinic acid (0.02 ± 0.01). The decompositionof the primary ozonide was found to yieldpredominantly the excited C₉-Criegee intermediateand HCHO (0.84 ± 0.04) and to a minor extent theexcited CH₂OO intermediate and nopinone (0.16± 0.04). Roughly 40% of the excitedC₉-Criegee intermediate becomes stabilised andcould be shown to react with HCHO, HCOOH and H₂O. The atmospherically important reaction of thestabilised C₉-Criegee intermediate with H₂Owas found to result in a nopinone increase of (0.35± 0.05) and in the formation of H₂O₂(0.24 ± 0.03). Based on the observed products,the unimolecular decomposition/isomerisationchannels of the C₉-Criegee intermediate arediscussed in terms of the hydroperoxide and esterchannels. Subsequent reactions of the nopinonylradical, formed in the hydroperoxide channel, lead tomajor products like 3-hydroxy-nopinone but also tominor products like cis-pinic acid. A mechanismfor the formation of this dicarboxylic acid isproposed and its possible role in aerosol formationprocesses discussed.     

Nucleation of earthquakes and its implication to precursors

IntroductionIn the middle of 1990s, the argument about nucleation phase occurred. Ellsworth and Beroza(1 995) studied the wave records of 30 earthquake events, which initiated slowly. Ellsworth, et al calledthem as nucleation phase. They discussed the relationship between their moment, duration time andthe relationship with the main shock behind. Scherbaum (1997a, b) proposed his different view andsuggested that some of the recording of the long period initial of seismic wave was misinterpret…     

人工增雨降温机理的数值模拟研究: 对流云个例试验

为减轻夏季用电负荷,2004年我国许多省市实施了碘化银催化增雨降温作业。本文利用数值模拟方法讨论了强对流云(冰雹云)催化降温的机理。模拟结果表明,实施碘化银催化后,地面降雨量增加、降雹量减少、地面温度降低。催化使得云中冰晶、霰和雨水的含量增加,造成云雨蒸发、霰的融化(蒸发)及冰晶升华量增加,从而使空气温度降低。     

矿震成核过程的公里尺度研究

成核过程是地震机理研究的重要部分.通过岩石实验、高温高压和数值模拟认为，地震成核的临界尺度为大地震总破裂长度的十分之一，一般为10~20 km左右；地震成核时间从年到秒、甚至毫秒.本文利用山东省宁阳县华丰煤矿立体台网的岩爆观测，进行了公里尺度的破裂成核过程实验研究.通过对华丰煤矿1995年2月~1996年5月期间的地脉动记录和12000次小震记录资料的分析，计算了它们的地脉动、S波和P波振幅比以及S波波峰的到时差，得到ML=2.9矿震的成核时间为50天，成核临界尺度为5 km.     

Atmospheric Electrification in the Solar System

Atmospheric electrification is not a purely terrestrial phenomenon: all Solar System planetary atmospheres become slightly electrified by cosmic ray ionisation. There is evidence for lightning on Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune, and it is possible on Mars, Venus and Titan. Controversy surrounds the role of atmospheric electricity in physical climate processes on Earth; here, a comparative approach is employed to review the role of electrification in the atmospheres of other planets and their moons. This paper reviews the theory, and, where available, measurements, of planetary atmospheric electricity which is taken to include ion production and ion–aerosol interactions. The conditions necessary for a planetary atmospheric electric circuit similar to Earth’s, and the likelihood of meeting these conditions in other planetary atmospheres, are briefly discussed. Atmospheric electrification could be important throughout the solar system, particularly at the outer planets which receive little solar radiation, increasing the relative significance of electrical forces. Nucleation onto atmospheric ions has been predicted to affect the evolution and lifetime of haze layers on Titan, Neptune and Triton. Atmospheric electrical processes on Titan, before the arrival of the Huygens probe, are summarised. For planets closer to Earth, heating from solar radiation dominates atmospheric circulations. However, Mars may have a global circuit analogous to the terrestrial model, but based on electrical discharges from dust storms. There is an increasing need for direct measurements of planetary atmospheric electrification, in particular on Mars, to assess the risk for future unmanned and manned missions. Theoretical understanding could be increased by cross-disciplinary work to modify and update models and parameterisations initially developed for a specific atmosphere, to make them more broadly applicable to other planetary atmospheres.     

Fracture in Westerly Granite under AE Feedback and Constant Strain Rate Loading: Nucleation, Quasi-static Propagation, and the Transition to Unstable Fracture Propagation

New observations of fracture nucleation are presented from three triaxial compression experiments on intact samples of Westerly granite, using Acoustic Emission (AE) monitoring. By conducting the tests under different loading conditions, the fracture process is demonstrated for quasi-static fracture (under AE Feedback load), a slowly developing unstable fracture (loaded at a `slow' constant strain rate of 2.5 × 10<sup>−6</sup> /s) and an unstable fracture that develops near instantaneously (loaded at a `fast' constant strain rate of 5 × 10⁻⁵ /s). By recording a continuous ultrasonic waveform during the critical period of fracture, the entire AE catalogue can be captured and the exact time of fracture defined. Under constant strain loading, three stages are observed: (1) An initial nucleation or stable growth phase at a rate of ~ 1.3 mm/s, (2) a sudden increase to a constant or slowly accelerating propagation speed of ~ 18 mm/s, and (3) unstable, accelerating propagation. In the ~ 100 ms before rupture, the high level of AE activity (as seen on the continuous record) prevented the location of discrete AE events. A lower bound estimate of the average propagation velocity (using the time-to-rupture and the existing fracture length) suggests values of a few m/s. However from a low gain acoustic record, we infer that in the final few ms, the fracture propagation speed increased to 175 m/s. These results demonstrate similarities between fracture nucleation in intact rock and the nucleation of dynamic instabilities in stick slip experiments. It is suggested that the ability to constrain the size of an evolving fracture provides a crucial tool in further understanding the controls on fracture nucleation.     

Gradient theory of nucleation in polar fluids

Gradient theory (GT), a form of density functional theory (DFT), was applied to water, methanol, and ethanol using the cubic perturbed hard body (CPHB) equation of state (EOS). Compared to the standard form of classical nucleation theory (CNT), the GT results for water showed an improved temperature dependence, but the supersaturation dependence was slightly poorer. GT and several forms of CNT were also found to be in good agreement with a single high T molecular dynamics rate for TIP4P water. The rates predicted by GT for methanol and ethanol were improved by several orders of magnitude compared to CNT, but no improvement in the predicted temperature dependence of the rates was found.     

河北大茂山碘化银地面发生器增雪作业影响分析

利用常规气象资料、MICAPS资料和NECP/NCAR再分析资料,结合高斯模拟,分析了2012年11月10日唐县大茂山地基碘化银发生器增雪作业的作业条件。结果发现,此次天气背景为自西南向东北移动的冷涡云系,根据帕斯奎尔(Pasquill)稳定度分类法得出作业时间段大气处于中性层结状态;高斯模式模拟得出,有效的AgI浓度向上扩散范围高达3.0 km;作业点作业时段上空至3.2 km均处于上升气流区,计算出作业点发生器出口温度1.0℃。因冬季人工观测云底高度多为2.5~3.0 km,综合分析认为,该作业点的选址是合适的,此次作业条件较好,可以将催化剂输送到云中,起到催化作用。