Model identification for hydrological forecasting under uncertainty

Methods for the identification of models for hydrological forecasting have to consider the specific nature of these models and the uncertainties present in the modeling process. Current approaches fail to fully incorporate these two aspects. In this paper we review the nature of hydrological models and the consequences of this nature for the task of model identification. We then continue to discuss the history (“The need for more POWER‘’), the current state (“Learning from other fields”) and the future (“Towards a general framework”) of model identification. The discussion closes with a list of desirable features for an identification framework under uncertainty and open research questions in need of answers before such a framework can be implemented.     

Knowledge Representation Methods in Expert System for Earthquake Prediction ESEP 3.0

INTRODUCTIONKnowledgerepresentationandknowledgeacquisitionarekeyissuesinbuildinganexpertsystem .Theyarecloselyrelatedtothedomainproblem solvinglevelandcompetenceoftheexpertsystem .Intheknowledgeacquisitionprocess,thedomainexpertwillfirstofferandorganizepr…     

石灰改良膨胀土力学性质的研究

膨胀(?)主要是由强亲水性粘土矿物蒙脱石和伊利石组成的,是具有膨胀性、多裂隙性和超固结性的高塑性粘性土。在铁路施工中,膨胀土不能直接作为路基填土,必需进行改良。通过室内试验的方法来讨论石灰改良膨胀土的力学性质在各种影响因素下的变化规律。     

Ruthenium-ion-catalyzed oxidation of asphaltenes and oil-source correlation of heavy oils from the Lunnan and Tahe oilfields in the Tarim Basin, NW China

The identification of marine source rocks in the Tarim Basin is debated vigorously. The intention of this paper is to investigate the asphahenes in heavy oils from the Lunnan and Tabe oilfields and Well TD2 with ruthenium-ions-catalyzed oxidation technique (RICO), in order to explore its role in oil-oil and oil-source correlations, The RICO products included n-alkanoic acids, α,ω-di-n-alkanoic acids, branched alkanoic acids, tricyclic terpanoic acids, hopanoic acids, gammacerane carboxylic acid , regular sterane carboxylic acids and 4-methylsterane carboxylic acids. The n-alkyl chains and biomarkers bounded on the asphaltenes were of unsusceptibility to biodegradation. The distribution and absolute concentrations of n-alkanoic acids in the RICO products of heavy oils from the Lunnan and Tabe oilfields are different from those of Well TD2. The biomarkers bounded on the asphahenes, especially steranes, have a distribution trend similar to that of the counterparts in saturates. The sterane carboxylic acids and 4-methylsterane carboxylic acids in the RICO products of heavy oils from the Lunnan and Tahe oilfields, dominated by C30 sterane and C31 4-methylsterane carboxylic acids, respectively, are significantly different from those of the heavy oils of Well TD2, whose dominating sterane and 4-methylsterane carboxylic acids are C28 sterane and C29 4-methylsterane acids, respectively. The RICO products of the asphaltenes further indicate that the Middle-Upper Ordovician may be the main source rocks for heavy oils from the Lunnan and Tabe oilfields.     

Leaf area index retrieval based on canopy reflectance and vegetation index in eastern China

The aim of this paper is to investigate the feasibility of using Landsat TM data to retrieve leaf area index (LAI). To get a LAI retrieval model based ground reflectance and vegetation index, detailed field data were collected in the study area of eastern China, dominated by bamboo, tea plant and greengage. Plant canopy reflectance of Landsat TM wavelength bands has been inversed using software of 6S. LAI is an important ecological parameter. In this paper, atmospheric corrected Landsat TM imagery was utilized to calculate different vegetation indices (VI), such as simple ratio vegetation index (SR), shortwave infrared modified simple ratio (MSR), and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Data of 53 samples of LAI were measured by LAI-2000 (LI-COR) in the study area. LAI was modeled based on different reflectances of bands and different vegetation indices from Landsat TM and LAI samples data. There are certainly correlations between LAI and the reflectance of Tm3, TM4, TM5 and TM7. The best model through analyzing the results is LAI = 1.2097*MSR + 0.4741 using the method of regression analysis. The result shows that the correlation coefficient R2 is 0.5157, and average accuracy is 85.75%. However, whether the model of this paper is suitable for application in subtropics needs to be verified in the future.     

An approach for quantifying geomorphological impacts for EIA of transportation infrastructures: a case study in northern Spain

A methodological proposal for the assessment of impacts due to linear infrastructures such as motorways, railways, etc. is presented. The approach proposed includes a series of specific issues to be addressed for each geomorphological feature analysed—both ‘static’ and ‘dynamic’—as well as a series of steps to be followed in the process.Geomorphic characteristics potentially affected were initially identified on the basis of a conceptual activities/impacts model that helps to single out geomorphic impacts related to environmental concerns for the area. The following issues were addressed for each individual impact: nature of potential effects; indicators that can be used to measure impacts; criteria of ‘geomorphologic performance’; procedure for measurement/prediction of changes; translation of geomorphologic impacts into significant terms from the viewpoint of human concerns; possible mitigation and/or compensation measures.The procedure has been applied to a case study corresponding to a new motorway in the Basque Country, northern Spain. Geomorphological impacts considered in this analysis included: (1) consumable resources; (2) sites of geomorphological interest; (3) land units with high potential for use, high productivity or value for conservation; (4) visual landscape; (5) slope instability processes. The procedure has been designed for implementation in a Geographic Information System (GIS) environment. Details are given on the application of the method to each individual impact analysed and results are presented in both numerical and map form.Impacts assessed were initially expressed by means of heterogeneous magnitudes, depending on the geomorphological feature considered. Those geomorphological impacts were then translated into significant terms and homogeneous magnitudes. Integration was carried out on the basis of impact values thus obtained. Final integrated results were also expressed in numerical and map form.The method proposed enables comparison of alternatives as well as ‘prediction’ and assessment of impacts in terms directly related to geomorphic characteristics. It also facilitates the expression of those impacts in terms that allow integration with other types of environmental impacts.     

Climatic response of thick leaf spruce (Picea crassifolia) tree-ring width at different elevations over Qilian Mountains, northwestern China

Tree-ring cores of thick leaf spruce (Picea crassifolia) taken from four sites at different elevations, in the middle of the Qilian Mountains, in the arid and semi-arid region of northwestern China, were used to develop four tree-ring width chronologies using standard dendrochronological methods. Results indicate that with increasing altitude the chronologies’ year-to-year variations decreased. Hence, the sensitivity of the tree-ring chronologies to climate decreases with altitude. Further analysis showed that the significant limiting factor on tree growth is spring precipitation. Measurements of stomata density and leaf dry weight suggest the species’ ecological adaptation strategy changes with elevation. At high elevation the metabolic rate of thick leaf spruce decreases, thus showing the effect of the climate.     

3D and 4D controls on carbonate depositional systems: sedimentological and sequence stratigraphic analysis of an attached carbonate platform and atoll (Miocene, Níjar Basin, SE Spain)

This study investigates the controls on three-dimensional stratigraphic geometries and facies of shallow-water carbonate depositional sequences. A 15 km² area of well-exposed Mid to Late Miocene carbonates on the margin of the Níjar Basin of SE Spain was mapped in detail. An attached carbonate platform and atoll developed from a steeply sloping basin margin over a basal topographic unconformity and an offshore dacite dome (Late Miocene). The older strata comprise prograding bioclastic (mollusc and coralline algae) dominated sediments and later Messinian Porites reefs form prograding and downstepping geometries (falling stage systems tract). Seven depositional sequences, their systems tracts and facies have been mapped and dated (using Sr isotopes) to define their morphology, stratigraphic geometries, and palaeo-environments. A relative sea-level curve and isochore maps were constructed for the three Messinian depositional sequences that precede the late Messinian evaporative drawdown of the Mediterranean. The main 3D controls on these depositional sequences are interpreted as being: (i) local, tectonically driven relative sea-level changes; (ii) the morphology of the underlying sequence boundary; (iii) the type of carbonate producers [bioclastic coralline algal and mollusc-dominated sequences accumulated in lows and on slopes of < 14° whereas the Porites reef-dominated sequence accumulated on steep slopes (up to 25°) and shallow-water highs]. Further controls were: (iv) the inherited palaeo-valleys and point-sourced clastics; (v) the amount of clastic sediments; and (vi) erosion during the following sequence boundary development. The stratigraphy is compared with that of adjacent Miocene basins in the western Mediterranean to differentiate local (tectonics, clastic supply, erosion history, carbonate-producing communities) versus regional (climatic, tectonic, palaeogeographic, sea-level) controls.