IAP/LASG全球海-陆-气耦合系统模式的纬向平均大气气候态分析(英文)

分海洋和陆地两种情况来讨论IAP/LASG全球海-陆-气耦合系统模式（GOAL）四个版本的结果,并与观测资料进行对比分析。一些重要的大气变量包括表面空气温度,海平面气压和降水率用来评估GOALS模式模拟当代气候和气候变率的能力。总的来说,GOALS模式的四个版本都能够合理地再现观测到的平均气候态和季节变化的主要特征。同时评估也揭示了模式的一些缺陷。可以清楚地看到模拟的全球平均海平面气压的主要误差是在陆地上。陆地上表面空气温度模拟偏高主要是由于陆面过程的影响。值得注意的是降水率模拟偏低主要是在海洋上,而中高纬的陆地降水在北半球冬天却比观测偏高。 通过模式不同版本之间的相互比较研究,可以发现模式中太阳辐射日变化物理过程的引入明显地改善了表面空气温度的模拟,尤其是在中低纬度的陆地上。太阳辐射日变化的引入对热带陆地的降水和中高纬度的冬季降水也有较大改进。而且,由于使用了逐日通量距平交换方案（DFA）,GOALS模式新版本模拟的海洋上的温度变率在中低纬度有了改善。 比较观测和模拟的年平均表面空气温度的标准差,可以发现GOALS模式四个版本都低估了海洋和陆地上的温度变率,文中还对影响观测和模拟温度变率差异的可能原因进行了探讨。     

当代气候研究计划

就气候系统问题，国际上与气候及其变化有关的重要科学计划、尤其是气候变化及可预报性研究（CLIVAR）计划，作了简要介绍，同时还就气候预测问题作了讨论。     

库车坳陷侏罗纪沉积环境和层序地层分析

通过对库车坳陷野外露头和钻井资料以及地震剖面的综合分析,对库车盆地侏罗纪沉积环境、层序划分进行了研究.库车盆地在侏罗纪时期为一非对称型坳陷型盆地,主要物源在盆地的北部.划分了13个三级层序,三个层序组,反映了三个大级别的旋回.最大湖侵期为阳霞组中上部,与当时有一个明显的气候变热期相一致.沉积环境在侏罗纪早期为辫状河-辫状河三角洲环境、中期为曲流河-三角洲环境,后期为三角洲和浅湖环境,中期有短暂的海泛发生.影响侏罗纪湖平面变化的主控因素为构造运动、气候变化、物源条件、河水的流入以及海侵的影响.在中侏罗世早期、晚期的最大湖侵和海泛的短暂时期,形成了厚层的烃源岩分布.库车坳陷侏罗系虽然砂体分布广泛,厚度较大,然而由于陆相沉积环境的控制,非均质性较强、     

国际冰芯与气候环境研究新进展--关于国际"冰芯与气候"会议

2001年8月19～23日, 在格陵兰举行了规模空前的"冰芯与气候"国际盛会, 会议展示了冰芯与气候环境研究的最新进展. 文中介绍这次会议并概括了近年来的主要研究进展. 与南北极地区的冰芯研究相比, 中低纬度地区冰芯研究是近年来国际冰芯研究中发展最快的. 在这一研究中, 中国科学家做出了重要贡献并得到了国际同行的高度评价.     

中国沙尘暴天气的新特征及成因分析

2000～2002年,中国北方地区频频发生沙尘暴天气,给当地和广大下游地区工农业生产、交通运输、空气质量和人民的日常生活都带来了极大危害。沙尘暴天气呈现频次高、发生时间提前、发生期时间长、强度大、影响范围广等新特征。对气候变化和地理环境背景的分析研究表明,近年来中国北方沙尘暴频繁爆发的原因主要是:1)近两年处于反厄尔尼诺(拉尼娜)事件的高峰期,使东亚冬季风频繁,导致大风天气频繁发生;2)在沙尘暴发生季节,中国北方降水明显减少,气温回升迅速且温度偏高于往年,使解冻的地表土层疏松,为沙尘暴的发生提供了丰富的沙源;3)近年来中国北方干旱加剧、土地荒漠化严重,使原本广阔的戈壁沙漠面积更加扩大,有利于沙尘暴天气的发生,这与不合理的土地利用状况有关。     

青藏高原与全球环境变化研究进展

文章从 4个方面简要介绍了青藏高原与全球环境变化的最新研究进展 :(1)新生代青藏高原的隆升过程与东亚环境演化 ;(2 )末次间冰期以来的气候环境记录及重大气候突变事件 ;(3)青藏高原2ka以来温度、降水变化特征 ;(4 )青藏高原近代气候变化及其环境响应。主要结论有 :第三纪青藏地区曾两次隆升与夷平 ;7MaBP开始高原再次抬升 ,3 6MaBP以来经历了强烈隆起。高原季风的形成演化与高原隆升过程紧密相联 ,2 5MaBP高原季风由浅薄系统变为深厚系统 ,现代季风格局形成。在约 1 1～ 0 8MaBP间青藏高原进入冰冻圈 ,西北地区干旱化、主要沙漠扩展、周边地区新的黄土体系形成均与此有关。高原气候在冰期 /间冰期循环时间尺度上具有升温缓慢、降温迅速的特征。达索普冰芯记录中的CH4 浓度高出极区 15 %～ 2 0 %,并具有很大的波动性。青藏高原最新的一次大湖期时代在 40～ 2 5ka ,代表着一次特强的夏季风暖湿事件。古里雅冰芯研究发现气候突变事件频繁。高海拔地区比低海拔地区对全球气候变化反应更敏感。根据冰芯、湖芯、树轮和历史文献恢复揭示了2ka以来高原温度降水变化特征。百年来青藏高原气候经历了 3次突变 ,2 0世纪 5 0年代以来的变暖趋势超过北半球及同纬度地区。高原冰冻圈 (包括冰川、积雪和冻土 )对近代     

Probability Density Functions as Botanical-Climatological Transfer Functions for Climate Reconstruction

We present a new procedure, the pdf method (pdf=probability density function), for reconstructing Quaternary climate utilizing botanical data. The procedure includes the advantages of the indicator species method by considering the fossil and modern presence and absence of taxa rather than their frequencies, thus avoiding the need for modern analog plant communities. Overcoming the problematic use of absolute limits to describe climate response ranges is the main progress of the pdf method in comparison to the indicator species method. This advantage results from estimating probability density functions (pdfs) for monthly mean January and July temperature conditional on the present day occurrence of single taxa. Gaussian distributions sufficiently approximate pdfs of many, although not all, studied taxa. On the assumption of statistical independence, the procedure calculates a joint pdf as the product of the pdfs of the individual taxa. This algorithm weights each taxon according to the extent of its climate response range expressed by its covariance structure. We interpret the maximum of the resulting pdf as the most likely climate and its confidence interval as the uncertainty range. To avoid an artificial reduction of uncertainty arising from the use of numerous similar pdfs, a preselection method is proposed based on the Mahalanobis distance between pdfs. The pdf method was applied to the Carpinus phase of a profile from Gröbern, Germany, that spans the last interglaciation (Eemian). The reconstructed most probable January and July temperatures of about 0.0°C and 18.4°C barely differ from the modern values of −0.5°C and 18.3°C.     

Analyzing CO2 emissions mitigation by technology improvement in Central and Eastern Europe

As a legacy of the centrally planned economy, the economies in transition of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have a unique potential to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions through the improvement in their high energy intensities. Since much of this `low-hanging fruit' in energy-efficiency improvements can be highly cost-effective, many developed countries facing difficulties in meeting their greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets domestically are eager to find such opportunities in the CEE region. Therefore, studies analysing the potentials and costs of carbon dioxide reduction through technology improvement in the region have come into the limelight. While there are a few excellent studies in the region aimed at analysing climate change abatement potentials, they all embark on different assumptions, methodologies and boundary conditions. It is hence difficult, if not impossible, to compare and analyse the results of these studies across different authors, countries or time horizons. Consequently, the purpose of this paper is to place four leading studies on GHG mitigation through technology improvement from the CEE region into an internationally comparable framework. Four studies were selected from three countries, Poland, Hungary and Estonia, which are all the results of major national and international efforts to assess costs and potentials of GHG reduction. The paper places their assumptions, methods and final results into a framework which enables policy-makers and project designers to compare these across geographical and technological boundaries. Since other studies from around the globe have been analysed in this framework in the literature, this paper provides a vehicle for the findings of these four studies to be compared to others worldwide. In addition, the paper highlights a few areas where similar studies to be completed in the future in the region may be enhanced by incorporating features used in GHG mitigation research in other parts of the world. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

挑战地球科学的新前沿 21世纪大洋综合钻探计划(OD21)

简要介绍即将实施的“21世纪大洋综合钻探计划”的目的、要求、设施等。     

Une méthode de quantification de la dégradation d'un escarpement de faille au cours des cycles climatiques du Quaternaire : la faille de Jobourg (Nord Cotentin,France)Quantification of a fault-scarp degradation through Quaternary: the Jobourg fault (North Cotentin,France)

The degradation of the Jobourg fault-scarp occurred by cryoclastic processes in a periglacial environment during a part of Quaternary time. An attempt of quantification indicates a bulk scarp erosion of about 39 m³ m^?2, while the head accumulated at the bottom of the fault scarp only represents 4.6 m³ m^?2. To cite this article: M. Font et al., C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 171–178.