俄罗斯学者预测全球气候变化

气候变化是人类遇到的主要问题之一,各国学者也一直致力于研究出更加精准的全球气候变化预测模型。日前,俄罗斯科学院大气物理研究所学者利用其最新研制出全球气候模型预测未来300年的全球气候变化。根据其预测结果,即使人类保持最为谨慎的活动也无法改变全球气候变暖的趋势。     

《干旱区地理》30周年刊庆在乌鲁木齐举行

2008年7月30日．《干旱区地理》30周年刊庆暨学术报告会在（乌鲁木齐）中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所举行。中国科学院院士、中国科学院大气物理研究所曾庆存研究员、中国工程院院士、长安大学李佩成教授、新疆维吾尔自治区科技厅厅长、中国科学院新疆分院院长张小雷研究员、中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所所长陈曦研究员、中国地理学会秘书长张国友研究员、新疆维吾尔自治区科技期刊研究会理事长张琼研究员、以及包括《干旱区地理》编委在内的来自全国各地的专家学者50余人应邀出席了会议。会议由中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所副所长田长彦研究员主持。     

Simulating the intraseasonal variation of the East Asian summer monsoon by IAP AGCM4.0

ABSTRACT This study focuses on the intraseasonal variation of the East Asian summer monsoon （EASM） simulated by IAP AGCM 4.0, the fourth-generation atmospheric general circulation model recently developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences. In general, the model simulates the intraseasonal evolution of the EASM and the related rain belt. Besides, the model also simulates the two northward jumps of the westem Pacific subtropical high （WPSH）, which are closely related to the convective activities in the warm pool region and Rossby wave activities in high latitudes. Nevertheless, some evident biases in the model were found to exist. Due to a stronger WPSH, the model fails to simulate the rain belt in southern China during May and June. Besides, the model simulates a later retreat of the EASM, which is attributed to the overestimated land-sea thermal contrast in August. In particular, the timing of the two northward jumps of the WPSH in the model is not coincident with the observation, with a later jump by two pentads for the first jump and an earlier jump by one pentad for the second, i.e., the interval between the two jumps is shorter than the observation. This bias is mainly ascribed to a shorter oscillating periodicity of convection in the tropical northwestern Pacific.