A new methodology for building local climate change scenarios: A case study of monthly temperature projections for Mexico City

This paper proposes a new methodology for generating climate change scenarios at the local scale based on multivariate time series models and restricted forecasting techniques. This methodology offers considerable advantages over the current statistical downscaling techniques such as: (i) it provides a better representation of climate at the local scale; (ii) it avoids the occurrence of spurious relationships between the large and local scale variables; (iii) it offers a more appropriate representation of variability in the downscaled scenarios; and (iv) it allows for compatibility assessment and combination of the information contained in both observed and simulated climate variables. Furthermore, this methodology is useful for integrating scenarios of local scale factors that affect local climate. As such, the convenience of different public policies regarding, for example, land use change or atmospheric pollution control can be evaluated in terms of their effects for amplifying or reducing climate change impacts.     

Mathematical and numerical filtration–advection–dispersion model of miscible grout propagation in saturated porous media

The development of a predictive model of behaviour of porous media during injection of miscible grout, taking into account convection, dilution and filtration of grout solution with interstitial water, as well as consolidation aspects, is presented. Model assumptions are reviewed and discussed first. During the establishment of the model, we insist on surface terms and their physical relevance in expressing adsorption effects. Constitutive laws such as Fick's law for diffusive mass transport, hydrodynamic dispersion tensor dealing with miscibility, are modified by taking into account filtration effects. A new surface term appears in mass balance equations as a consequence of filtration. According to the filtration laws used, an initial filtration rate is estimated on the basis of a one‐dimensional experimental campaign. The field equations are discretized by using Galerkin finite element and θ‐scheme standard method. For transport equation, Streamline Upwind Petrov Galerkin method is employed to prevent numerical oscillations. Lastly, confrontation of numerical results with laboratory experiments constitutes a first step to validate the model on a realistic basis. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

尺度效应的叶面积指数产品真实性检验方法

真实性检验是评价遥感反演产品质量和验证遥感应用产品是否准确、真实地反映实际情况的重要途径。叶面积指数(LAI)是表征陆地植被结构和长势的关键参数,全面准确评价和验证LAI产品是产品用于陆面过程模型的前提。本文以MODIS LAI与GLASS LAI产品为研究对象,在尺度效应和尺度转换的基础上,建立了针对非均匀像元的低分辨率LAI产品真实性检验方法。在考虑空间异质性和植被长势差异的情况下,借助中分辨率的遥感影像,分别利用1 km像元平均叶面积指数和反演表观叶面积指数实现了对LAI算法和产品的真实性检验。为了比较作物长势差异和地表非均匀度对产品的影响,本文选择有代表性的河南鹤壁和甘肃张掖两个地区进行两种LAI产品真实性检验研究。研究结果表明,GLASS LAI和MODIS LAI产品均存在明显的低估现象。这并不是产品算法的问题,而是由于地表异质性和非均匀度的影响。在异质性更显著的张掖盈科灌区,低估现象更明显。GLASS LAI产品是多种LAI产品的融合,它的平均LAI比MODIS更接近真实情况,但是LAI的动态范围比MODIS窄。     

旋翼无人机盐城试验观测资料分析及其在一次浓雾天气观测中的应用

2018年3月28—30日、6月20—26日和9月5—13日在江苏省盐城市射阳站开展了旋翼无人机大气边界层垂直结构观测试验,并与L波段雷达探空资料进行对比,验证无人机观测资料精度。结果表明无人机观测的温度、相对湿度、风向、风速廓线与探空观测资料具有较好的一致性。二者温度、相对湿度的相关系数均为0.98,温度绝对偏差为0.57℃,相对湿度绝对偏差为4.25%,风向相关系数为0.98,绝对偏差为11.5°,二者风速的相关系数为0.91,绝对偏差为1.88 m·s~(-1),且无人机探测的风速为对应高度上的瞬时风速,可以更好地反映出边界层内风速细节变化特征。试验期间,无人机观测到一次夏季浓雾过程边界层结构细致变化特征,其观测的雾的边界层结构特征和宏观特征与探空观测基本一致。验证结果表明无人机在边界层气象观测中具有很好的应用前景。     

FY2海面温度产品质量检验方法与误差分析

主要介绍了风云二号静止气象卫星海面温度产品的质量检验方法及检验流程,给出了FY2E业务海面温度产品和FY2F海面温度算法的质量检验结果,并从误差统计、反演算法、系统设计等方面分析了目前FY2海面温度产品与国外卫星海面温度产品差异大的原因。现场海面温度质量检验和分析场海面温度交叉检验各有优缺点。现场海面温度质量检验能够对FY2 SST产品给于客观的评价。国外分析场海面温度具有时效性好、全球覆盖且质量均一的优点,分析场海面温度交叉检验能满足FY2 SST质量检验的时效性,是对FY2 SST的相对检验。通过静止卫星海面温度产品质量检验信息可以为产品研发人员和相关用户提供参考。     

Optimal liability apportionment in programmatic credit-based emissions trading

The inclusion of Programmes of Activities (PoAs) within the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) has been limited by the fact that third-party project validators, who determine the eligibility of a CDM Project Activity (CPA), are currently held liable for any certificates that are erroneously issued. As such, validators must replace any credits issued for the relevant CPA. Moreover, the risk associated with the validation of small-scale CPAs is considerably higher than that associated with traditional CDM projects. Using a simple game-theory model to model the interactions between project validators and coordinators, it is shown that shifting liability for certificates that are erroneously included – from the former to the latter – is never optimal, does not provide a strong enough incentive to enforce first-best levels of due care in CPA selection and inclusion, and can induce overprovision in validation efforts. The main problem with such a simple proportionate liability regime is that an increase in incentives for one player automatically leads to a decrease in incentives for the other. Two additional instruments are also considered that would both rectify this problem and improve the environmental integrity of the CDM mechanism.     

PRINCIPAL COMPONENTS REGRESSION FOR ROUTINE MULTICOMPONENT UV DETERMINATIONS: A VALIDATION PROTOCOL

A validation protocol for multicomponent spectroscopic assays based on principal componentsregression is described. Factorial design and hypothesis tests are used to establish the linearity andabsence of interaction between components in the regression model. Testing considers multiple responsevariables simultaneously so that correlation between residuals is properly treated. Assay reproducibilityand sensitivity to related substances are evaluated.     

A comparison of MODIS-derived cloud amount with visual surface observations

Two main sources for global cloud climatologies are visual surface observations and observations made by spaceborne sensors. Satellite observations compared with surface data show in most cases differences ranging from − 15% up to − 1%, depending on sensor and observation conditions. These differences are partially controlled by sensors' cloud detection capabilities — a higher number of spectral bands and higher spatial resolution are believed to allow discrimination of clouds from land/ocean/snow background. A Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) produces images of the atmosphere in 36 spectral bands with a spatial resolution of 250–1000 m, thus having a capacity for cloud detection far more advanced than other operating sensors. In this study, instantaneous MODIS cloud observations were compared with surface data for Poland for January (winter) and July (summer) 2004. It was found that MODIS observed 4.38% greater cloud amount in summer conditions and 7.28% in winter conditions. Differences were greater at night (7–8%) than in daytime (0.5–7%) and correlations ranged between 0.577 (winter night) and 0.843 (winter day, summer day and night).     

Present-day climatology and projected changes of warm and cold days in the CNRM-CM3 global climate model

The impact of global warming on the warmest and coldest days of the annual cycle is explored according to an A2 scenario simulated by the CNRM-CM3 climate model in the framework of the IPCC AR4 intercomparison. Given the multi-model spread in IPCC projections, a validation strategy is proposed using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. Validation of the late twentieth century model climatology shows that warm and cold model events are slightly too long and infrequent. Although interannual trends in the warm (cold) day occurrence were positive (negative) only for six (three) of the nine considered sub-continental regions, simulated model trends are always positive (negative). This different behaviour suggests that simulated non-anthropogenic decadal variability is small relative to anthropogenic trends. Large-scale synoptic processes associated with European regional warm and cold peaks are also described and validated. Regional cold peaks are better reproduced than warm peaks, whose intensity accuracy is limited by other physical variables. Positive (negative) winter anomalies of sea and land surface temperature lead to summers with severe (weak) temperatures. These inter-annual anomalies are generated by a persistent pressure dipole over Europe. Regarding climate change, warm (cold) events will become more (less) frequent and longer (shorter). The number of warm days will largely rise and the number of cold days will dramatically decrease. The intensity of warm days will be particularly pronounced over Europe, given the projected summer drying in this region. However, according to the limited skill of the CNRM model, these results must be considered with caution.