青岛市大气污染时间序列分析预报方法研究

根据青岛市大气污染监测资料 ,采用时间序列分析方法 ,建立多种预报模型 ,有原序列周期外延法、均生函数周期外延法、均生函数逐步回归法以及自回归预报法等 ,最后提出一种综合预报模型。连续预报试验表明 ,综合预报模型优于任何个别预报模型 ,有较好的预报能力。利用马尔可夫概型对污染状态 (轻、中、重 )进行了分级预报试验 ,也获得良好的效果。     

Upstream dams and downstream clams: growth rates of bivalve mollusks unveil impact of river management on estuarine ecosystems (Colorado River Delta, Mexico)

We studied how the extensive diversion of Colorado River water, induced by dams and agricultural activities of the last 70 years, affected the growth rates of two abundant bivalve mollusk species (Chione cortezi and Chione fluctifraga) in the northern Gulf of California. Shells alive on the delta today (‘Post-dam’ shells) grow 5.8–27.9% faster than shells alive prior to the construction of dams (‘Pre-dam’ shells). This increase in annual shell production is linked to the currently sharply reduced freshwater influx to the Colorado River estuary. Before the upstream river management, lower salinity retarded growth rates in these bivalves. Intra-annual growth rates were 50% lower during spring and early summer, when river flow was at its maximum. Growth rates in Chione today are largely controlled by temperature and nutrients; prior to the construction of dams and the diversion of the Colorado River flow, seasonal changes in salinity played an important role in regulating calcification rates.Our study employs sclerochronological (growth increment analysis) and geochemical techniques to assess the impact of reduced freshwater influx on bivalve growth rates in the Colorado River estuary. A combination of both techniques provides an excellent tool to evaluate the impact of river management in areas where no pre-impact studies were made.     

Atmospherically-promoted photosynthetic activity in a well-mixed ecosystem: Significance of wet deposition events of nitrogen compounds

Wet atmospheric deposition of dissolved N, P and Si species is studied in well-mixed coastal ecosystem to evaluate its potential to stimulate photosynthetic activities in nutrient-depleted conditions. Our results show that, during spring, seawater is greatly depleted in major nutrients: Dissolved Inorganic Nitrogen (DIN), Dissolved Inorganic Phosphorus (DIP) and Silicic acid (Si), in parallel with an increase of phytoplanktonic biomass. In spring (March–May) and summer (June–September), wet atmospheric deposition is the predominant source (>60%, relative to riverine contribution) for nitrates and ammonium inputs to this N-limited coastal ecosystem. During winter (October–February), riverine inputs of DIN predominate (>80%) and are annually the most important source of DIP (>90%). This situation allows us to calculate the possibility for a significant contribution to primary production in May 2003, from atmospheric deposition (total input for DIN ≈300 kg km⁻² month⁻¹). Based on usual Redfield ratios and assuming that all of the atmospheric-derived N (AD-N) in rainwater is bioavailable for phytoplankton growth, we can estimate new production due to AD-N of 950 mg C m⁻² month⁻¹, during this period of depletion in the water column. During the same episode (May 2003), photosynthetic activity rate, considered as gross primary production, was estimated to approximately 30 300 mg C m⁻² month⁻¹. Calculation indicates that new photosynthetic activity due to wet atmospheric inputs of nitrogen could be up to 3%.     

黄河河流水体二氧化碳分压及其影响因素分析

根据2003年秋季黄河河流水体二氧化碳分压(p(CO2))的实测数据，结合水文、化学和生物等要素的同步观测资料，对河流水体p(CO2)的影响因素进行了探讨。研究结果表明：生物好氧呼吸作用不是影响河流水体p(CO2)的主要因素，黄河河流p(CO2)的高低主要受水体碳酸盐系统的控制。     

近岸溢油漂移扩散预测方法研究——以胶州湾溢油事件为例

近些年,由于中国经济的高速发展,原油需求逐年增长,同时海上溢油事故发生的风险也在加剧。海上溢油会严重破坏海洋环境,危害我国经济发展,加强溢油漂移扩散预报研究能够为海上溢油应急响应提供技术支撑。因此,国家海洋信息中心研发了海上突发事件应急一体化预测预警系统。该系统基于GIS平台研发,能够在二维电子海图基础上叠加相关的海洋环境动力要素信息,模拟溢油扩散和漂移态势,同时计算剩余油量,估算溢油面积以及岸线吸附程度等。2013年11月22日,山东黄岛发生输油管道爆炸事故,造成大量原油溢入胶州湾。本文利用该系统结合高分辨率大气模型WRF的三重嵌套技术和海流模型SELFE的非结构化网格加密技术,对事故溢油漂移扩散开展了预测工作。预测结果显示,油污受胶州湾内往复流的影响极大,72 h后,胶州湾内外大部分海域都将存在油污,主要集中在黄岛沿岸海域、团岛及浮山湾附近,预测扫海面积为70.32 km2。经海事部门高分辨率卫星观测结果印证,系统模拟的溢油分布较为合理。该系统的业务化应用为相关海上溢油污染应急工作提供了一定理论依据和参考。     

黄骅电厂取水河段取水特性的数模与物模研究

本文采用数值模拟与物模试验相结合的研究方法，详细地研究了黄骅电厂一、二、三期工程的取水特性。结果表明，现有河道只能满足电厂一期工程的取水需求；若将现有河道进行适当开挖，可以满足电厂三期取水需要。     

青岛市水环境污染及其防治对策

通过分析近几年青岛市地表，地下水水质监测资料，总结水环境污染地区分布规律，摸清水环境污染形成原因，对当前防污治污工作提出了对策建议。     

回收法治理锯条厂氰化物污水

在采用回收法治理锯条厂氰化物污水中，通过改造生产工艺，减少污水量，提高氰化物浓度及污水经除油后减压蒸馏，可回收５０％～９０％的氰化铂，其他盐分也可全部回收，从污水中蒸出的蒸馏水能在系统内循环使用。     

深圳河河口围垦对防洪和河床冲淤影响研究

为研究深圳河河口福田保税区围垦填土占用部分河道对深圳河治理工程的影响 ,建立了贴体坐标系下平面二维的深圳河河道 -河口 -海湾整体水域的水流泥沙数学模型 ,计算了不同频率洪峰流量和河口潮位过程组合下河口围垦所造成的深圳河沿程水位抬高程度和河床冲淤变化情况 ,提出了建议的挖除方案     

珠江口伶仃洋温度分布特征

依据实测资料，分析了伶汀洋冬、夏季的水温分布特征及其变化。冬季湾内水温的分布和变化较单一，夏季由于河流入海流量增大，河流与海洋水体的相互作用加强，明显可见两个冷、暖水锋在河口湾中段相交，上段为高温的河流淡水控制区，下段为低温的陆架水控制区，两者显著的特点是其控制区内温度变化很小，而在锋面转折地带的河口湾中段，盐淡水混合强烈，其温度变化大，温度等值线呈倾斜分布。