Foreground removal of 21 cm fluctuation with multifrequency fitting

The 21 centimeter (21 cm) line emission from neutral hydrogen in the inter-galactic medium (IGM) at high redshifts is strongly contaminated by foreground sources such as the diffuse Galactic synchrotron emission and free-free emission from the Galaxy, as well as emission from extragalactic radio sources, thus making its observation very complicated. However, the 21 cm signal can be recovered through its structure in fre-quency space, as the power spectrum of the foreground contamination is expected to be smooth over a wide band in frequency space while the 21 cm fluctuations vary signifi-cantly. We use a simple polynomial fitting to reconstruct the 21 cm signal around four frequencies 50, 100, 150 and 200 MHz with an especially small channel width of 20 kHz. Our calculations show that this multifrequency fitting approach can effectively recover the 21 cm signal in the frequency range 100 ～ 200 MHz. However, this method doesn't work well around 50 MHz because of the low intensity of the 21 cm signal at this frequency. We also show that the fluctuation of detector noise can be suppressed to a very low level by taking long integration times, which means that we can reach a sensitivity of ≈ 10 mK at 150 MHz with 40 antennas in 120 hours of observations.     

Dynamics of the Earth’s core from VLBI observations

The Earth’s rotation is accompanied by free circadian oscillations of its liquid core in the inner cavity of the lower mantle, which perturb the angular momentum of the entire Earth and produce an additional free nutation of the celestial pole called free core nutation (FCN). Since this nutation causes resonances in the diurnal tides and in the expansions of luni—solar nutation, its study, especially an improvement of the FCN period, is of fundamental importance for the theory of the Earth’s rotation. We have determined the FCN parameters from a joint analysis of equidistant series of coordinates of the celestial pole obtained from the combined processing of VLBI observations on global networks of stations for the interval 1984.0–2008.4 by IERS (International Earth Rotation and Reference System Service, Paris, France) and NEOS (National Earth Orientation Service, Washington, USA). Applying a moving least-squares filter (MLSF) to these data has shown that the FCN period averaged over this time interval differs significantly from the theoretical one and its phase varies over a wide range. Using the mean quadratic collocation (MQC) method, we have obtained a new, more accurate stochastic FCN model. Its analysis by the envelope method has revealed long-term linear phase trends, calling into question not only the adopted FCN period but also its stability and, hence, the stability of the resonant effects in the Earth’s luni—solar nutation.     

Influence of Surface-Based Stable Layer Development on Asian Dust Behaviour Over Tokyo

The relationship between local meteorological fields and the behaviour of airborne Asian dust that arrived in the Tokyo metropolitan area on 1 April 2007 with the passage of a synoptic-scale cold front has been investigated through Doppler lidar observations, experiments using a regional atmospheric numerical model, and analyses of surface and upper-air meteorological observations. Results of the Doppler lidar observations showed that the Asian dust passed above the metropolitan area with strong south-westerly winds with speeds of 15–26 m s⁻¹. Meteorological fields reproduced by the numerical experiments showed the development of a surface-based stable layer in the metropolitan area caused by nocturnal radiational cooling near the ground surface and south-westerly warm air advection at upper levels. The blocking effect of the mountainous region located to the west of the metropolitan area induced an area of stagnant air inside the metropolitan area and promoted the stable layer development. Although strong downdrafts prevailed in the upper air, the airborne Asian dust did not spread to the ground when the stable layer was formed. These results strongly indicate that the developed stable layer prevented strong downdrafts from spreading to the ground, acting as an obstacle to the transport of the Asian dust particles from the upper air towards the ground. This is considered to be one of the main causes of the low appearance frequency of Asian dust phenomena near the ground in the Tokyo metropolitan area and eastern Japan.     

应用奇异向量方法的适应性观测实例研究

近年来,通过适应性观测技术来减小预报误差已成为国际上数值预报中的一项关键技术,然而实施适应性观测对减小预报误差的影响评估是一个需要深入讨论的问题。文中利用奇异向量方法以2007年3月4日东北地区暴风雪天气过程为研究对象,考察了预报误差对不同观测区域观测资料的敏感性,在确定能量范数的基础上,分析了奇异向量的水平分和特征和垂直分布特征,利用奇异向量的空间结构确定了敏感区域。通过伪逆初始扰动场作为分析误差,研究验证区域的预报误差对不同区域增加观测的敏感性,试验结果表明,在敏感区域内进行补充观测来改善分析误差,能够最有效地提高验证区域内的预报水平;而减小非敏感区域内的分析误差对减小预报误差的贡献相对较小。这些结果表明,利用奇异向量法定义敏感区进行适应性观测,能够和有限的观测资源和计算资源的条件下,最大程度地减小验证区域的预报误差,从而达到提高验证区域预报准确率的目的。     

复杂天气交替出现的观测编报技术应注意的问题

如何在短短的十几分钟观测发报时间内能把恶劣天气准确编报,并对观测编报技术提供可借鉴的经验.     

高分辨率卫星实测资料揭示的近年亚洲热带夏季风爆发进程

利用高分辨率卫星观测资料,从气候态角度分析了亚洲热带夏季风爆发特征。研究表明,亚洲热带夏季风最先在中南半岛西部爆发,随后在整个中南半岛和孟加拉湾东部,然后扩大至孟加拉湾西部和南海。夏季风爆发后,与孟加拉湾和南海相比,中南半岛雨量增强形势不明显。第26—28候（即5月第2候—5月第4候）是亚洲热带夏季风的爆发阶段。整个爆发过程,低层风场的时空演变与对流降水相对应,海表温度场增温较海表风场提早约1候左右;华南地区以锋面降水为主,即副热带季风降水。采用对流降水和海表上空10 m风场分别代表夏季风降水和盛行风向的时空演变特征较常规资料更为准确、精细。     

Improving the Analyses and Forecasts of a Tropical Squall Line Using Upper Tropospheric Infrared Satellite Observations

The advent of modern geostationary satellite infrared radiance observations has noticeably improved numerical weather forecasts and analyses.However,compared to midlatitude weather systems and tropical cyclones,research into using infrared radiance observations for numerically predicting and analyzing tropical mesoscale convective systems remain mostly fallow.Since tropical mesoscale convective systems play a crucial role in regional and global weather,this deficit should be addressed.This study is the first of its kind to examine the potential impacts of assimilating all-sky upper tropospheric infrared radiance observations on the prediction of a tropical squall line.Even though these all-sky infrared radiance observations are not directly affected by lower-tropospheric winds,the high-frequency assimilation of these all-sky infrared radiance observations improved the analyses of the tropical squall line’s outflow position.Aside from that,the assimilation of all-sky infrared radiance observations improved the analyses and prediction of the squall line’s cloud field.Finally,reducing the frequency of assimilating these all-sky infrared radiance observations weakened these improvements to the analyzed outflow position,as well as the analyses and predictions of cloud fields.     

武汉九峰站地下水变化对重力场观测的影响

本文从地下水渗透过程的物理机制出发,采用一维水动力学模拟,利用井水位和降雨数据模拟计算了武汉九峰站附近的土壤含水率变化,在此基础上估计了地下水变化导致的重力效应.其峰对峰变化幅度达到15.94μGal,说明当利用精密重力观测研究长周期效应时实施台站地下水改正的必要性;频域分析表明,地下水重力效应在周年频段上的振幅最大,说明地下水变化对重力的最大影响来自季节性变化.对比模拟计算的地下水重力效应和经过潮汐、大气、极移等改正后的高精度超导重力残差(峰对峰变化幅度为12.73μGal),发现两者在时域和频域均具有良好的一致性,说明超导重力残差信号主要来源于局部地区地下水的变化,同时也验证了本文使用的水动力学模拟方法的正确性.