贸易保护、出口溢出效应与中国出口市场拓展

在国际贸易摩擦不断升级的背景下,厘清贸易保护对中国区域经济发展的影响是中国当前面临的重要议题。既有演化经济地理学框架主要从供给视角出发,认为出口产品路径演化过程呈现依赖技术知识溢出的特征,忽略了需求视角的影响。基于中国海关库2002—2016年的数据,以中国出口产品进入新市场的演化路径为研究对象,本文将供需视角纳入同一解释框架,补充需求视角下的外部市场关联以及需求市场的贸易壁垒措施作为外部力量,试图探究贸易保护、出口溢出效应如何作用于中国出口市场拓展过程。研究发现：① 在出口产品结构升级的同时,中国出口目的地结构也在不断地向新兴市场国家和地区拓展。其中,东部与中部地区是出口拓展的主力区域,技术与资本密集型产品是出口拓展的主要产品类型。② 中国出口市场的拓展进程呈现出典型的路径依赖特征,包括供给视角下基于本地技术知识溢出的路径依赖与需求视角下基于目的地市场信息溢出的路径依赖。其中后者被长期忽视,但在中国出口市场拓展进程中扮演着十分重要的角色。③ 贸易保护作为一种外部冲击,可有效地削弱基于本地技术知识溢出和外部市场信息溢出的路径依赖。采用投资、区域合作等方式绕开贸易壁垒,实现出口产品与市场结构的多元化,是应对外部冲击实现可持续发展的长久之计。     

Mismatch between biological,exploitation, and governance scales and ineffective management of sea urchin (Paracentrotus lividus) fisheries in Galicia

The spatial structure of fishery resources influences stock dynamics and finally the fishery. Therefore, this aspect should be included as a key topic in the assessment and management of fisheries. The fishery of the sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus in Galicia has been used as case study to demonstrate how the mismatch between biological, fishery and management scales causes failures in the governance, giving rise to over-exploitation. P. lividus is spatially distributed in nested biological units: patches, micro-stocks, local populations and metapopulations. Fishing operations are local exploiting micro-stocks; however management units in Galician comprise usually more than one local population. This pattern allows the depletion of several micro-stocks without any short-term signals in the exploitation rates over the complete managed territory. Management units should be redefined according to the boundaries of the local populations. In addition, the implementation of reserve networks or a rotation system could allow to effectively managing the resource at a fine-scale. Any of both regulations could also compensate the inverse density dependence that regulates recruitment and fecundity in this species.     

乡村旅游社区景观空间演化研究

乡村旅游社区景观空间是在乡村旅游社区地域范围内,由于人类活动所产生的文化景观的总和。近年来,随着乡村旅游的快速发展,乡村旅游社区景观空间的演化受到人们的高度关注。本文将乡村旅游社区景观空间的演化置于演化经济地理研究框架内,认为其经历形成之前阶段、形成阶段、发展阶段和锁定或创新阶段四个阶段,每个阶段特征和演化机制各不相同。乡村旅游社区景观空间的演化是在遗传机制、变异机制等内因和选择机制、起点状态、关键事件等外因共同作用下,随着产业变迁而发生的具有路径依赖特征的演化过程。     

帮扶措施对山区脱贫农户生计策略选择的影响——以陇南山区为例

帮扶措施不仅是构建稳定脱贫长效机制的关键举措,更是推进脱贫攻坚与乡村振兴有效衔接的客观要求。论文构建了帮扶措施对农户生计策略选择的影响分析框架,利用入户调查数据,在辨明帮扶措施及生计策略选择特征的基础上,探讨了影响陇南山区脱贫户生计策略选择的关键因素。结果表明：① 陇南山区有59.84%的脱贫户享受了多元帮扶措施,其中,享受最多的多元帮扶措施为产业扶贫+生态补偿扶贫,享受最多的单一帮扶措施为生态补偿扶贫;② 陇南山区脱贫户的生计策略以务工主导型为主,呈农业特色化、非农化和多样化的特点;③ 陇南山区脱贫户生计策略选择的路径依赖性整体呈中等水平,其中,川坝河谷区农户、老年农户和低生计资本禀赋的农户生计策略选择的路径依赖性较强,且帮扶措施对其有调节作用;④ 社会资本、人力资本、金融资本和区位条件对农户的生计策略选择有显著影响;产业扶贫和电商扶贫对农户的特色务农型生计策略选择有正向影响,生态补偿扶贫和就业扶贫对农户的非农化生计策略选择有正向影响。最后,提出了优化农户生计策略的政策建议。     

Assessment of future runoff trends under multiple climate change scenarios in the Willamette River Basin,Oregon, USA

We investigated trends in future seasonal runoff components in the Willamette River Basin (WRB) of Oregon for the twenty‐first century. Statistically downscaled climate projections by Climate Impacts Group (CIG), eight different global climate model (GCM) simulations with two different greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios, (A1B and B1), were used as inputs for the US Geological Survey's Precipitation Runoff Modelling System. Ensemble mean results show negative trends in spring (March, April and May) and summer (June, July and August) runoff and positive trends in fall (September, October and November) and winter (December, January and February) runoff for 2000–2099. This is a result of temperature controls on the snowpack and declining summer and increasing winter precipitation. With temperature increases throughout the basin, snow water equivalent (SWE) is projected to decline consistently for all seasons. The decreases in the centre of timing and 7‐day low flows and increases in the top 5% flow are caused by the earlier snowmelt in spring, decreases in summer runoff and increases in fall and winter runoff, respectively. Winter runoff changes are more pronounced in higher elevations than in low elevations in winter. Seasonal runoff trends are associated with the complex interactions of climatic and topographic variables. While SWE is the most important explanatory variable for spring and winter runoff trends, precipitation has the strongest influence on fall runoff. Spatial error regression models that incorporate spatial dependence better explain the variations of runoff trends than ordinary least‐squares (OLS) multiple regression models. Our results show that long‐term trends of water balance components in the WRB could be highly affected by anthropogenic climate change, but the direction and magnitude of such changes are highly dependent on the interactions between climate change and land surface hydrology. This suggests a need for spatially explicit adaptive water resource management within the WRB under climate change. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

经贸视角下中国周边地缘环境分析——基于社会网络分析方法

周边对一国地区稳定、经济发展等影响重大,中国也一直奉行“邻国是首要”的外交战略,推行“睦邻、富邻、安邻”的邻国政策.主要分析中国及其周边国家贸易网络,在经济依赖度分析等基础上,借助社会网络分析工具进行程度中心性分析、结构同型分析等一系列分析,从而对中国及其周边国家贸易网络进行多方面解剖.结果表明:中国与周边国家存在不平等的经济依赖度;贸易网络存在较为明显的核心—边缘结构;中国在周边贸易网络中占据主导地位,经济影响力不断上升.研究表明,地缘政治研究中引入社会网络分析方法可以实现空间关系的网络化和网络关系的空间化,深化对地缘环境的认识.     

An investigation of analysis of variance as a tool for exploring regional differences in strong ground motions

The statistical technique known as analysis of variance is applied to a large set of European strong-motion data to investigate whether strong ground motions show a regional dependence. This question is important when selecting strong-motion records for the derivation of ground motion prediction equations and also when choosing strong-motion records from one geographical region for design purposes in another. Five regions with much strong-motion data (the Caucasus region, central Italy, Friuli, Greece and south Iceland) are investigated here. For the magnitude and distance range where there are overlapping data from the five areas (2.50 M_s 5.50, 0 d 35 km) and consequently analysis of variance can be performed, there is little evidence for a regional dependence of ground motions. There is a lack of data from moderate and large magnitude earthquakes (M_s > 5.5) so analysis of variance cannot be performed there. Since there is uncertainty regarding scaling ground motions from small to large magnitudes whether ground motions from large earthquakes are significantly different in different parts of Europe is not known. Analysis of variance has the ability to complement other techniques for the assessment of regional dependence of ground motions.     

中国原油进口风险度以及对国内不同区域的影响分析

1993年中国开始从原油输出国变为原油输入国,到2010年,中国的原油进口依赖度高达53%。原油进口来源国的社会经济稳定性、原油运输线路的安全性影响到中国原油进口的安全性。本文根据ITIRI的综合国际贸易投资风险指数和原油运输线路的安全性,设计了中国从其主要原油进口来源国进口原油的风险指数。然后分析了中国各省级行政区对原油进口消费的依赖度,中国六个大区石化工业和八个石油化工基地对进口原油的依赖程度。从而分析了它们对进口原油风险的敏感度。本研究的结论是:第一,中国重要的原油进口来源国比较集中,且集中在社会经济不十分稳定的国家。第二,原油进口风险对沿海地区经济的影响远高于对内陆地区的影响。第三,沪宁杭、琼粤闽和长江中游石化基地是受原油进口风险影响最大的三个基地。根据这些结论,本文提出两方面建议:第一,建议中国原油进口来源与运输方式尽量多元化,以规避风险。第二,中国原油战略储备基地应考虑对原油进口风险敏感度大的地区。