烟台市新增亿元GDP用地量的分析探讨

新增亿元GDP用地量是衡量土地节约集约利用的重要指标,在分析烟台市新增亿元GDP用地量现状的基础上,确定烟台市新增亿元GDP用地量,并以此为基础对烟台市未来5年合理新增用地量进行预测,为促进土地节约集约利用提供参考。     

气象因素对淮北市电力负荷的影响及其预测研究

利用2012—2016年安徽省淮北市逐日用电负荷和气象要素数据,采用相关分析、回归分析、曲线拟合等统计方法,分析用电负荷的季节变化、周末/节假日效应变化规律,提炼主要气象影响因子并分析温度对负荷的1℃效应和负荷对最高温度的敏感性,构建趋势负荷和趋势方程,介绍将周末/节假日效应应用于气象负荷提取和不同预测模型的建立,采用趋势法建立逐日负荷预测的多元回归方程和曲线拟合方程,并针对趋势法的弱点提出2日增量法,建立相应的预测模型,其中2日增量法预测模型的历史拟合率和2017年试报应用均达到96%—97%,比趋势法高2%—3%,比目前的考核要求高4%—5%,提高了负荷预测精度。     

基于拉格朗日方法的洪泽湖与巢湖河流出入湖水体追踪计算

利用耦合北斗和GPS双定位系统的拉格朗日随体法水质点追踪仪,在2018年9月至2019年10月期间开展了总数为18次的洪泽湖和巢湖主要河流河水入湖后表层、中层和底层水体运移同步追踪观测,研究了两个湖泊河水入湖后的运移轨迹和速度特征。结果表明:淮河主河道河水入洪泽湖后流向南北两侧;徐洪河河口处水体表层流速在洪泽湖5条河道出入湖口处为最大;巢湖双桥河河口处水体流速受巢湖闸运行影响强烈,各层流速在7条入湖河流中最大。洪泽湖、巢湖入湖水体流速由表层至底层逐渐降低,洪泽湖各层水体流速大于巢湖。洪泽湖河口处表层水体8次测量平均流速为6.11cm/s;巢湖为5.51cm/s;二者中层流速分别为5.32和3.85cm/s;底层则分别为4.96和3.67cm/s。     

Fixing financialization in the credit-constrained city

The financialization of urban development occurs even under conditions of credit constraint. The paper demonstrates that credit scarcity is an important and under-examined driver of policy improvisation and institutional development. Using the case of Tucson, Arizona, we show that local and extra-local interests overlap and cross-pollinate to produce unique hybrids – geographically specific and contingent institutional forms cultivated by local growth machines to attract outside financial interests. These dynamics are illustrated with a sales-tax-based tax increment financing district that employs “enhanced financings” to attract extra-local sources of debt and equity. We find that the financialization of urban development in the credit-constrained city is not just a process of abstraction, but also of particularization in which extra-local dollars flow through embedded local networks. We conclude with a call for greater attention to the intersections of finance and urban life in “ordinary cities”.     

A Seasonal Prediction Model for the Summer Rainfall in Northeast China Using the Year-To-Year Increment Approach

Using the year-to-year increment approach, this study investigated the relationship of selected climatic elements with the increment time series of the summer rainfall between successive years in Northeast China, including the soil moisture content, sea surface temperature, 500 hPa geopotential height, and sea level pressure in the preceding spring for the period 1981–2008. Two spring predictors were used to construct the seasonal prediction model: the area mean soil moisture content in Northwest Eurasia and the 500 hPa geopotential height over Northeast China. Both the cross-validation and comparison with previous studies showed that the above two predictors have good predicting ability for the summer rainfall in Northeast China.     

2015/2016年极强厄尔尼诺事件下我国动力和统计结合实时气候预测研究

本文研究建立2015/2016年极强厄尔尼诺事件下我国动力和统计结合的气候预测模型,并开展2015年夏季和2016年冬季气候我国160个站点和主要区域实时气候预测。夏季降水的实时预测起报于2月,冬季气温的预测起报于10月。研究结果表明,尽管NCEP-CFSv2耦合气候模式能较好预测2015/2016年极强厄尔尼诺事件中海温异常的演变,但对我国160个站点夏季降水和冬季气温预测仍有较大的偏差。因此,基于NCEP-CFSv2耦合模式预测结果,分别建立我国160个站点冬季气温和夏季降水异常的动力和统计结合气候预测模型。同时,利用年际增量预测方法开展我国长江中下游夏季降水和华北冬季气温的区域气候预测。研究结果表明以上预测模型在2015/2016年的实时预测中较NCEP-CFSv2有更好的预测效能。相对于NCEP-CFSv2耦合模式的预测结果,2015年夏季降水距平空间相关系数ACC从0.21提高到0.31（超过0.01信度的显著性水平）,距平同号率提高到60%,2016年冬季气温ACC从0.19提高到0.32（超过0.01信度的显著性水平）,距平同号率提高到75%。     

Quality Assessment and Forecast Sensitivity of Global Remote Sensing Observations

The satellite-derived wind from cloud and moisture features of geostationary satellites is an important data source for numerical weather prediction(NWP) models. These datasets and global positioning system radio occultation(GPSRO)satellite radiances are assimilated in the four-dimensional variational atmospheric data assimilation system of the UKMO Unified Model in India. This study focuses on the importance of these data in the NWP system and their impact on short-term24-h forecasts. The quality of the wind observations is compared to the short-range forecast from the model background. The observation increments(observation minus background) are computed as the satellite-derived wind minus the model forecast with a 6-h lead time. The results show the model background has a large easterly wind component compared to satellite observations. The importance of each observation in the analysis is studied using an adjoint-based forecast sensitivity to observation method. The results show that at least around 50% of all types of satellite observations are beneficial. In terms of individual contribution, METEOSAT-7 shows a higher percentage of impact(nearly 50%), as compared to GEOS, MTSAT-2and METEOSAT-10, all of which have a less than 25% impact. In addition, the impact of GPSRO, infrared atmospheric sounding interferometer(IASI) and atmospheric infrared sounder(AIRS) data is calculated. The GPSRO observations have beneficial impacts up to 50 km. Over the Southern Hemisphere, the high spectral radiances from IASI and AIRS show a greater impact than over the Northern Hemisphere. The results in this study can be used for further improvements in the use of new and existing satellite observations.     

降水量的直接同化对初始场的影响

四维变分法用严格的数学方法、合乎逻辑的物理过程根据观测资料和模式本身来获得一个最优的初始场,是当前最先进的四维资料同化方法之一.作者用四维变分法对自动站降水量作直接同化,对初始场增量进行了分析.结果表明降水量的同化对初始场中热力性质的量影响相对较大,对低层的影响大于高层,大部分增量在925 hPa至850 hPa层间达最大.通过同化,北京地区对流不稳定性明显增加.对风场的增量分析表明,同化增加了一些中尺度信息.对于散度场和水汽通量散度场,同化有使低层辐合加强的趋势.通过同化,在MM5初始场上增加了原先没有     

空间直角坐标与大地坐标转换的拉格朗日反演方法

以拉格朗日反演理论为基础,导出空间直角坐标向大地坐标转换的一种新的直接解法：该方法将归化纬度的正弦函数sinμ表达为以空间直角坐标（X,Y,Z）为基础的相关变量的多项式     

岩土塑性理论中功表达的近似性

对广义剪应力、广义剪应变的表达式作了说明,在给出其增量表达的同时,指出了在计算二者增量时可能产生的误解。在此基础上,分析比较由平均主应力、体积应变增量、广义剪应力、广义剪应变增量表述的功的增量以及由三向主应力与三向主应变增量表述的功的增量得出：两种表述在一般情况下并不一致。但在某些特殊情况下,例如等应力Lode角加载并满足应力全量Lode角与应变增量Lode角相等时,二者的表述一致。岩土塑性理论中塑性功增量存在与功的增量相同的问题,然而对于实际岩土材料,应力全量与塑性应变增量等Lode角的假定在一般情况下是不能满足的。因此在岩土塑性理论中,对于一般情况下的等应力Lode加载情况,用平均主应力、塑性体积应变增量、广义剪应力、塑性广义剪应变增量表述的塑性功增量也只是一种近似。