Optimum Sample Size to Detect Perturbation Effects: The Importance of Statistical Power Analysis – A Critique

Abstract. The current article describes statistical power analysis as an efficient strategy for the estimation of the optimum sample size. The principle aim is constructively to criticise and enrich the results presented by Mouillot et al. (1999) , who estimate the optimum sample size for evaluating possible perturbations. The authors did not make any reference to statistical power analysis, even though their objective clearly went beyond a simple stock evaluation to assess management strategies in a particular marine ecosystem. Surprisingly, they proposed (a priori) an ANOVA design to test a hypothesis considering both space and temporal scales. However, the authors did not cover important topics related with power analysis and the precautionary principle, both used into environment impact assessment programmes for marine ecosystems. Based on their results and on statistical power analysis, it is demonstrated that the variability (dispersion statistics), a key factor they used to estimate the sample size, is less relevant than the magnitude of perturbation (effect size). Therefore, a greater effort must be devoted to estimate the effect size of a particular phenomenon rather than a desired variability.     

3D gravity modelling for Anyongbok Seamount in the East Sea

A seamount chain with an approximately WNW trend is observed in the northeastern Ulleung Basin. It has been argued that these seamounts, including two islands called Ulleung and Dok islands, were formed by a hotspot process or by ridge related volcanism. Many geological and geophysical studies have been done for all the seamounts and islands in the chain except Anyongbok Seamount, which is close to the proposed spreading ridge. We first report morphological characteristics, sediment distribution patterns, and the crustal thickness of Anyongbok Seamount using multibeam bathymetry data, seismic reflection profiles, and 3D gravity modeling. The morphology of Anyongbok Seamount shows a cone shaped feature and is characterized by the development of many flank cones and flank rift zones. The estimated surface volume is about 60 km³, and implies that the seamount is smaller than the other seamounts in the chain. No sediments have been observed on the seamount except the lower slope, which is covered by more than 1,000 m of strata. The crustal structure obtained from a 3D gravity modeling (GFR = 3.11, SD 3.82 = mGal) suggests that the seamount was formed around the boundary of the Ulleung Plateau and the Ulleung Basin, and the estimated crustal thickness is about 20 km, which is a little thicker than other nearby seamounts distributed along the northeastern boundary of the Ulleung Basin. This significant crustal thickness also implies that Anyongbok Seamount might not be related to ridge volcanism.     

端元分析模型在长江口邻近海域沉积物粒度数据反演方面的应用

海洋沉积物粒度分布曲线往往同时具有多个峰,而且同一类型沉积物因时间和空间上的不同其粒度分布曲线峰的位置也不同,沉积物粒度分布多峰的特点反映了沉积物不同的输运形式和沉降过程[1,2].因此,在沉积物的粒度分布数据中保存了有关沉积物输运和沉降的信息,而获得这些信息对于揭示沉积区域水动力特性、沉积物输运和沉降规律具有重要的意义.     

Uncertainty in predictions of oil spill trajectories in open sea

A method is introduced to calculate and to account for the uncertainties in the predictions of oil spill trajectories using a classic oil spill model. The method considers the output of the oil spill model as a function of random variables, which are the input parameters, and calculates the standard deviation of the output results which gives a measure of the uncertainty of the model given the uncertainties of the input parameters.Instead of a single trajectory that is calculated by the oil spill model using the mean values of the parameters, a band of trajectories can be defined when various simulations are done taking into account the uncertainties of the input parameters. This band of trajectories defines envelopes of the trajectories that are likely to be followed by the spill given the uncertainties of the input.The method is applied to an oil spill that occurred in open sea near Madeira Islands, in the Atlantic Ocean, in December 1989. The simulations allow the understanding of how a change in the wind direction drove the spill towards the Islands.The envelope of likely trajectories that is obtained with the uncertainty modelling shows a band of trajectories that is in better agreement with the observations than the single trajectory simulated by the oil spill model, based on mean parameters.     

基于多源数据的三维城市建模方法

以天津新港三维城市建模为例,介绍了基于二维数据、DEM和3D模型等多源数据的三维城市建模的方法和关键技术。为有效利用现有数据资源快速、准确建立三维城市模型提供了一种经济、灵活、省时、高效的方法。     

Design of a 3D Chirp Sub-bottom Imaging System

Chirp sub-bottom profilers are marine acoustic devices that use a known and repeatable source signature (1–24 kHz) to produce decimetre vertical resolution cross-sections of the sub-seabed. Here the design and development of the first true 3D Chirp system is described. When developing the design, critical factors that had to be considered included spatial aliasing, and precise positioning of sources and receivers. Full 3D numerical modelling of the combined source and receiver directivity was completed to determine optimal source and receiver geometries. The design incorporates four source transducers (1.5–13 kHz) that can be arranged into different configurations, including Maltese Cross, a square and two separated pairs. The receive array comprises 240 hydrophones in 60 groups whose group-centres are separated by 25 cm in both horizontal directions, with each hydrophone group containing four individual elements and a pre-amplifier. After careful consideration, it was concluded that the only way to determine with sufficient accuracy the source–receiver geometry, was to fix the sources and receivers within a rigid array. Positional information for the array is given by a Real Time Kinematic GPS and attitude system incorporating four antennas to give position, heading, pitch and roll. It is shown that this system offers vertical positioning accuracy with a root-mean-square (rms) error less than 2.6 cm, while the horizontal positioning rms error was less than 2.0 cm. The system is configured so that the Chirp source signature can be chosen by software aboard the acquisition vessel. The complete system is described and initial navigational and seismic data results are presented. These data demonstrate that the approach of using fixed source-receiver geometry combined with RTK navigation can provide complete 3D imaging of the sub-surface.     

Variability of organic δC and C/N in the Mersey Estuary, U.K. and its implications for sea-level reconstruction studies

Microfossil analysis (e.g. diatoms, foraminifera and pollen) represents the cornerstone of Holocene relative sea-level (RSL) reconstruction because their distribution in the contemporary inter-tidal zone is principally controlled by ground elevation within the tidal frame. A combination of poor microfossil preservation and a limited range in the sediment record may severely restrict the accuracy of resulting RSL reconstructions. Organic δ¹³C and C/N analysis of inter-tidal sediments have shown some potential as coastal palaeoenvironmental proxies. Here we assess their viability for reconstructing RSL change by examining patterns of organic δ¹³C and C/N values in a modern estuarine environment. δ¹³C and C/N analysis of bulk organic inter-tidal sediments and vegetation, as well as suspended and bedload organic sediments of the Mersey Estuary, U.K., demonstrate that the two main sources of organic carbon to surface saltmarsh sediments (terrestrial vegetation and tidal-derived particulate organic matter) have distinctive δ¹³C and C/N signatures. The resulting relationship between ground elevation within the tidal frame and surface sediment δ¹³C and C/N is unaffected by decompositional changes. The potential of this technique for RSL reconstruction is demonstrated by the analysis of part of an early Holocene sediment core from the Mersey Estuary. Organic δ¹³C and C/N analysis is less time consuming than microfossil analysis and is likely to provide continuous records of RSL change.