专项气象服务经济效益的评价理论与技术

当前，由于缺乏对气象服务投入量与产出量准确而完整的统计，要对气象服务的各种经济效益作出总体评价是困难的。然而，在专项气象服务中，却不乏原始、完整而准确的资料。作者从此出发，讨论了专项气象服务经济效益评价的理论。并通过实地调查，以彭州市气象局几项专项气象服务为例探讨了评价技术。     

The minimum orbital period in thermal time-scale mass transfer

We show that the usual picture of supersoft X-ray binary evolution as driven by conservative thermal time-scale mass transfer cannot explain the short orbital periods of RX J0537.7–7034 (3.5 h) and 1E 0035.4–7230 (4.1 h). Non-conservative evolution may produce such periods, but requires very significant mass loss, and is highly constrained.     

A detailed abundance analysis of the hot post-AGB star ZNG-1 in M10

We present a model-atmosphere analysis for the bright ( V ∼13) star ZNG-1, in the globular cluster M10. From high-resolution ( R ∼40 000) optical spectra we confirm ZNG-1 to be a post-asymptotic giant branch (post-AGB) star. The derived atmospheric parameters are T _eff=26 500±1000 K and log  g =3.6±0.2 dex . A differential abundance analysis reveals a chemical composition typical of hot post-AGB objects, with ZNG-1 being generally metal poor, although helium is approximately solar. The most interesting feature is the large carbon underabundance of more than 1.3 dex. This carbon deficiency, along with an observed nitrogen enhancement relative to other elements, may suggest that ZNG-1 evolved off the AGB before the third dredge-up occurred. Also, iron depletions observed in other similar stars suggest that gas–dust fractionation in the AGB progenitor could be responsible for the observed composition of these objects. However, we need not invoke either scenario since the chemical composition of ZNG-1 is in good agreement with abundances found for a Population II star of the same metallicity.     

香蕉新品系“93-1”选育初报

从香蕉(Musa AAA)组织培养繁殖后代中,选育出特长果指香蕉新品系“93-1”,主要特点为植株表现中矮秆(216 cm),茎粗中等(67.1 cm),苗期叶色浓绿,叶形椭圆形,叶形比(长/宽)1.91,叶尖急尖,叶基凹陷呈耳垂状;果穗7~12梳,平均8.07梳/穗,穗长81.6 cm,单穗重22.8 kg,单果重213.5 g,果指数123.4条/穗,果指特长(25.8 cm);可溶性固形物含量21.8%;全生育期321d(春植)至368 d(夏植),约44片叶。“93-1”适宜在广东雷州半岛及海南岛栽培种植。     

Neutron background in large-scale xenon detectors for dark matter searches

Simulations of the neutron background for future large-scale particle dark matter detectors are presented. Neutrons were generated in rock and detector elements via spontaneous fission and (α,n) reactions, and by cosmic-ray muons. The simulation techniques and results are discussed in the context of the expected sensitivity of a generic liquid xenon dark matter detector. Methods of neutron background suppression are investigated. A sensitivity of 10⁻⁹–10⁻¹⁰ pb to WIMP-nucleon interactions can be achieved by a tonne-scale detector.     

Statistical analysis of surface hydrography and circulation variations in northern South China Sea

1 INTRODUCTIONThe South China Sea (SCS) is a semi-enclosedmarginal sea in western North Pacific Ocean withvery complex topography and is the important pas-sage connecting the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Ithas great impact to the global climate and a greatinterest of many oceanography researchers. Twodominant surface hydrographic and circulation fea-tures in the northern SCS are a strong fresh waterexpansion and a warm and high-salinity seawaterintrusion such as the SCS Diluted Water…     

形状误差圆柱度的优化计算

建立了简明的圆柱度数学模型，并采用优化方法进行求解，为圆柱度误差值的评定提供了较理想的计算方法。     

Structures in the phase space of a four dimensional symplectic map

We numerically investigate the projections of non periodic orbits in a 4-dimensional (4-D) symplectic map composed of two coupled 2-dimensional (2-D) maps. We describe in detail the structures that are produced in different planes of projection and we find how the morphology of the 4-D orbits is influenced by the features of the 2-D maps as the coupling parameter increases. We give an empirical law that describes this influence.     

A stepwise method for determining the number of component distributions in a mixture

This paper considers the problem of estimatingm, the number of components in a finite mixture of distributions from a parametric family. A step-up procedure using the bootstrap method is proposed. Some properties of the procedure are illustrated with simulation studies. An example of the method, applied to orientation of beach clasts, is given.     

Study on numerical simulation to water lowering in an open coal mine digging

In view of the situation of excavation of open coal mine for the underground water disaster,we should carry out simulation studies for the numerical value of the water lowering project and improve the accuracy and the level of the water lowering project.On the basis of the hydrological geological conditions of certain open mine digging,a more reasonable seepage numerical model was built according to MODFLOW.It was simulated in advance that the process of the confined water level descending with the time,and combining with the actual observations to test the correctness of the model.The calculation showed that the results coincided well with the results of actual measurement.Based on this,different water lowering numerical simulations were built for the open coal mine digging.It could be simulated and forecast that the changes of the groundwater level in drainage process within and outside the mine pit,and it was quantitatively assessed that the possible water lowering result of the opencast water drainage process,which provide an important basis for the actual water lowering project and the possible project disposal.