Identification of the distinctive circulation patterns of storminess on the Atlantic margin of Europe forms the main objective of this study; dealing with storm frequency, intensity and tracking. The climatology of the extratropical cyclones that affect this region has been examined for the period 1940–1998. Coastal meteorological data from Ireland to Spain have been linked to the cyclone history for the North Atlantic in the analysis of storm records for European coasts. The study examines the evolution in the occurrence of storms since the 1940s and also their relationship with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Results indicate a seasonal shift in the wind climate, with regionally more severe winters and calmer summers established. This pattern appears to be linked to a northward displacement in the main North Atlantic cyclone track.
An experiment with the ECHAM4 A-GCM at high resolution (T106) has also been used to model the effect of a greenhouse gases induced warming climate on the climatology of coastal storms in the region. The experiment consists of (1), a 30-year control time-slice representing present-day equivalent CO2 concentrations and (2), a 30-year perturbed period corresponding to a time when the radiative forcing has doubled in terms of equivalent CO2 concentrations. The boundary conditions have been obtained from an atmosphere-ocean coupled OA-GCM simulation at low horizontal resolution. An algorithm was developed to allow the identification of individual cyclone movements in selected coastal zones. For most of the northern part of the study region, covering Ireland and Scotland, results describe the establishment by ca. 2060 of a tendency for fewer but more intense storms.
The impacts of these changes in storminess for the vulnerability of European Atlantic coasts are considered. For low-lying, exposed and ‘soft’ sedimentary coasts, as in Ireland, these changes in storminess are likely to result in significant localised increases in coastal erosion. 相似文献
A novel method for prediction of the load carrying capacity of a corroded reinforced concrete beam (CRCB) is presented in the paper. Nine reinforced concrete beams, which had been working in an aggressive environment for more than 10 years, were tested in the laboratory. Comprehensive tests, including flexural test, strength test for corroded concrete and rusty rebar, and pullout test for bond strength between concrete and rebar, were condueted. The flexural test results of CRCBs reveal that the distribution of surface cracks on the beams shows a fractal behavior. The relationship between the fractal dimensions and mechanical properties of CRCBs is then studied. A prediction model based on artificial neural network (ANN) is established by the use of the fractal dimension as the corrosion index, together with the basic intbrmation of the beam. The validity of the prediction model is demonstrated through the experimental data, and satisfactory resuits are achieved. 相似文献
Observations of fluid mud were made in the lower North Passage of the Yangtze Estuary in February 2000, on 10 -11 August 2000, on 30 - 31 August 2000 (after two strong typhoons), on 21 - 24 August 2000 (neap tide) and on 3 -6 September 2000 (mean tide) respectively. In situ data show that the fluid mud in this area consists of fine cohesive sediment (median size 7.23 μm). The formation and movement of fluid mud varied during the neap-spring and flood-ebb tidal cycle. Observations suggest that fluid mud phenomena in this area may be categorised in a three-fold manner as slack water, storm and saltwedge features. The thickness of the fluid mud layer of slack water during the neap tide ranged from 0.2 to 0.96 m, whereas during the mean tide, the thickness ranged from 0.17 to 0.73 m, and the thickness of the fluid mud layer was larger during slack water than at the flood peak. Shoals cover an area of 800 km^2 with a water depth smaller than 5 m. Erosion of these extensive intertidal mudflats due to storm action provides an abundant sediment source. This is particularly significant in this estuary when the tidal level is lower than 5 m. The lower North Passage is a typical zone of saltwater wedging, so the saltwedge fluid mud has the most extensive spatial range in the estuary. 相似文献