Fitting optimum order of Markov chain models for daily rainfall occurrences in Peninsular Malaysia

The analysis of the daily rainfall occurrence behavior is becoming more important, particularly in water-related sectors. Many studies have identified a more comprehensive pattern of the daily rainfall behavior based on the Markov chain models. One of the aims in fitting the Markov chain models of various orders to the daily rainfall occurrence is to determine the optimum order. In this study, the optimum order of the Markov chain models for a 5-day sequence will be examined in each of the 18 rainfall stations in Peninsular Malaysia, which have been selected based on the availability of the data, using the Akaike’s (AIC) and Bayesian information criteria (BIC). The identification of the most appropriate order in describing the distribution of the wet (dry) spells for each of the rainfall stations is obtained using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness-of-fit test. It is found that the optimum order varies according to the levels of threshold used (e.g., either 0.1 or 10.0 mm), the locations of the region and the types of monsoon seasons. At most stations, the Markov chain models of a higher order are found to be optimum for rainfall occurrence during the northeast monsoon season for both levels of threshold. However, it is generally found that regardless of the monsoon seasons, the first-order model is optimum for the northwestern and eastern regions of the peninsula when the level of thresholds of 10.0 mm is considered. The analysis indicates that the first order of the Markov chain model is found to be most appropriate for describing the distribution of wet spells, whereas the higher-order models are found to be adequate for the dry spells in most of the rainfall stations for both threshold levels and monsoon seasons.     

The best fitting distribution of annual maximum rainfall in Peninsular Malaysia based on methods of L-moment and LQ-moment

This paper discusses patterns of annual and monthly precipitation variability at seven weather stations in east central Europe (1851–2007). Precipitation patterns were compared to three simple regional indices of atmospheric circulation, i.e., western circulation, southern circulation and the cyclonicity (C) index and a relationship between precipitation and the North Atlantic Oscillation index was identified. Correlations of the monthly records and multiple regression, using a principal components’ analysis, helped determine the statistical significance of the dependence of precipitation on the circulation indices. The Mann–Kendall test revealed no trend to change in any of the precipitation series, but a certain spatial regularity could be discerned in the phase of the annual periodic component. A common feature of the variability in central European annual precipitation is the dry period identified in the 1980s and the first half of the 1990s. In the northern part of the region, above-average precipitation was noted from the 1960s through to the mid-1970s as a result of the frequent prevalence of depressions. South of the divide, the wettest period was recorded at the turn of 1930s/1940s. After a number of very wet years in the last decade of the twentieth century and the beginning of the twenty-first century, precipitation began to fall at all of the region’s weather stations. The C index is the strongest circulation-linked factor influencing precipitation in central Europe and it accounts for more than 40% of the variance in spatially averaged wintertime precipitation.     

Very Low Frequency Remote Sensing Measurements of the Lower Ionosphere at Site of the United Arab Emirates

The proposed research project is aiming for providing basic data for quantitative comparison of lightning-induced disturbances of the ionosphere and the radiation belts in the American, European and Asia sectors. Most of the current data on such phenomena has so far been obtained in the western hemisphere, and the weight of scientific information indicates that lightning-induced effects at high altitudes and in the radiation belts may dominate other processes on a global scale. The proposed research project will facilitate the establishment and conduct of Very Low Frequency observations in the United Arab Emirates as a part of the Asia sector, thus providing a basis for comparison to facilitate global extrapolations and conclusions. Under the proposed project, Stanford University partners with Sharjah University, deploying one of their Very Low Frequency receivers at Sharjah University campus. Sharjah University provides the data digitization and recording equipment to facilitate continuous acquisition of the data. All data from the proposed project will be available for analysis over the Internet, and a series of annual visits are planned to maximize interactions and information exchange between the two universities.     

Deformation mechanisms in the frontal Lesser Himalayan Duplex in Sikkim Himalaya,India

Understanding deformation mechanisms in Himalayan rocks is a challenging proposition due to the complex nature of the deformed rocks and their genesis. Crustal deformation in the Himalayan thrust belt typically occurs in elastico-frictional (EF) or quasi-plastic (QP) regimes at depths controlled mainly by regional strain-rate and geothermal gradient. However, material property, grain-size and their progressive changes during deformation are also important controlling factors. We present evidence of EF deformation from Gondwana rocks developed during the emplacement of one of the frontal horses (Jorthang horse) in the Lesser Himalayan Duplex (LHD) structure associated with Lesser Himalayan rocks in the footwall of the Ramgarh thrust in the Rangit window near Jorthang in the Sikkim Himalaya. The rocks in the horse exhibit systematic changes in microand meso-structures from an undeformed protolith to cataclasite suggesting that it was emplaced under elastico-frictional conditions. Meso- to micro-scale shear fractures are seen developed in Gondwana sandstone and slate while intercalated fine-grained shale-coal-carbonates are deformed by cataclastic flow suggesting that material property and grain-size have played an important role in the deformation of the Jorthang horse. In contrast, the hanging wall schists and quartzites of the Ramgarh thrust exhibit quasi-plastic deformation structures. This suggests that the Jorthang horse was emplaced under shallower crustal conditions than the antiformally folded Ramgarh thrust sheet even though the Ramgarh sheet presently overlies the Jorthang horse.     

Cylindrical and spherical electron acoustic solitary waves in the presence of superthermal hot electrons

Propagation of cylindrical and spherical electron-acoustic solitary waves in unmagnetized plasmas consisting of cold electron fluid, hot electrons obeying a superthermal distribution and stationary ions are investigated. The standard reductive perturbation method is employed to derive the cylindrical/spherical Korteweg-de-Vries equation which governs the dynamics of electron-acoustic solitons. The effects of nonplanar geometry and superthermal hot electrons on the behavior of cylindrical and spherical electron acoustic soliton and its structure are also studied using numerical simulations.     

Cosmic energy equation for extended structures and its application to gravitational galaxy clustering

Cosmic energy equation represents the law of conservation of energy in the region expanding with time as the universe expands. It gives the evolution of kinetic and correlation potential energy with time in a cluster expanding as the universe expands. To understand the clustering of galaxies under the influence of gravitational force, cosmic energy equation is of great help. We use cosmic energy equation for extended structures (galaxies with halos) to analyse the gravitational galaxy clustering in different ways. We try to understand the influence of expansion on the clustering by deriving the relation between correlation parameter b _V and scale factor R. We also derive the relation between the peculiar kinetic energy K and correlation parameter to know that when peculiar kinetic energy dominates over the kinetic energy of galaxies due to expansion. Besides, the evolution of specific heat and energy provides the information regarding the different states of clustering.     

High resolution facies architecture and digital outcrop modeling of the Sandakan formation sandstone reservoir,Borneo:Implications for reservoir characterization and flow simulation

Advances in photogrammetry have eased the acquisition of high-resolution digital information from outcrops, enabling faster, non-destructive data capturing and improved reservoir modeling. Geocellular models for flow dynamics with in the virtual outcrop in siliciclastic deposits at different sets of sandstone facies architecture remain, however, a challenge. Digital maps of bedding, lithological contrast, spatial-temporal variations of bedding and permeability characteristics make it more easy to understand flow tortuosity in a particular architecture. An ability to precisely model these properties can improve reservoir characterization and flow modeling at different scales. Here we demonstrate the construction of realistic 2 D sandstone facies based models for a pragmatic simulation of flow dynamics using a combination of digital point clouds dataset acquired from LiDAR and field investigation of the Sandakan Formation, Sabah, Borneo.Additionally, we present methods for enhancing the accuracy of outcrop digital datasets for producing high resolution flow simulation. A well-exposed outcrop from the Sandakan Formation, Sabah, northwest Borneo having a lateral extent of 750 m was chosen in order to implement our research approach. Sandstone facies and its connectivity are well constrained by outcrop observations, data from air-permeability measurements, bilinear interpolation of permeability, grid construction and water vector analysis for flow dynamics.These proportions were then enumerated in terms of static digital outcrop model(DOM) and facies model based on sandstone facies bedding characteristics. Flow simulation of water vector analysis through each of the four sandstone facies types show persistent spatial correlation of permeability that align with either cross-bedded orientation or straight with more dispersion high quality sandstone(porosity 21.25%-41.2%and permeability 1265.20-5986.25 mD) and moderate quality sandstone(porosity 10.44%-28.75% and permeability 21.44-1023.33 mD). Whereas, in more heterolithic sandstone(wavy-to flaser-bedded and bioturbated sandstone), lateral variations in permeability show spatially non-correlated patterns over centimeters to tens of meters with mostly of low quality sandstone(porosity 3.4%-12.31% and permeability < 1 mD to 3.21 mD). These variations reflect the lateral juxtaposition in flow dynamics. It has also been resulted that the vertical connectivity and heterogeneities in terms of flow are mostly pragmatic due to the interconnected sandstone rather than the quality of sandstone.     

Genealogical concordance,comparative species delimitation,and the specific status of the Caspian pipefish Syngnathus caspius (Teleostei: Syngnathidae)

To evaluate the specific validity of the Caspian pipefish Syngnathus caspius, we used a comparative molecular species delimitation method on a COI barcode library of Syngnathus, as well as principles of genealogical concordance. Comparative species delimitation allowed us to delineate putative species without a priori assignment of individuals to nominal species, while genealogical concordance extended our species delimitation results to multiple genes, multiple codistributed species, and comparisons with biogeographic evidence. All species delimitation analyses including two topology‐based, one network‐based, and one distance‐based analysis showed genetically isolated lineages of pipefish in the Black and Caspian Sea, corresponding to S. abaster and S. caspius, respectively. Mean evolutionary divergence between the two lineages (0.029) was within the range separating species of Syngnathus (0.024–0.217). The interclade/intraclade ratio of variation was comparable to the operational criterion of divergence between clades greater or equal to 10 × the level within clades to recognize separate species. Our argument on taxonomic validity of S. caspius is also supported by the principles of genealogical concordance as a conceptual basis for recognition of biological species. As a second objective, using a limited number of S. caspius specimens from two semi‐confined water bodies along the Caspian Sea south coastal zone (i.e., Anzali Wetland in the west and Gorgan Bay in the east), we searched for a possible matrilineal structure. The retrieved phylogeographic pattern was characterized by a shallow genealogy and lineage distributions varied, most probably caused by low to modest contemporary gene flow between populations of S. caspius across the southern Caspian Sea that are linked tightly through history.     

Modeling and assessing the effects of land use changes on runoff generation with the CLUE-s and WetSpa models

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Land use change is an important determinant of hydrological processes and is known to affect hydrological parameters such as runoff volume, flood frequency,...     

Multi-criteria evaluation of CMIP5 GCMs for climate change impact analysis

Climate change is expected to have severe impacts on global hydrological cycle along with food-water-energy nexus. Currently, there are many climate models used in predicting important climatic variables. Though there have been advances in the field, there are still many problems to be resolved related to reliability, uncertainty, and computing needs, among many others. In the present work, we have analyzed performance of 20 different global climate models (GCMs) from Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) dataset over the Columbia River Basin (CRB) in the Pacific Northwest USA. We demonstrate a statistical multicriteria approach, using univariate and multivariate techniques, for selecting suitable GCMs to be used for climate change impact analysis in the region. Univariate methods includes mean, standard deviation, coefficient of variation, relative change (variability), Mann-Kendall test, and Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (KS-test); whereas multivariate methods used were principal component analysis (PCA), singular value decomposition (SVD), canonical correlation analysis (CCA), and cluster analysis. The analysis is performed on raw GCM data, i.e., before bias correction, for precipitation and temperature climatic variables for all the 20 models to capture the reliability and nature of the particular model at regional scale. The analysis is based on spatially averaged datasets of GCMs and observation for the period of 1970 to 2000. Ranking is provided to each of the GCMs based on the performance evaluated against gridded observational data on various temporal scales (daily, monthly, and seasonal). Results have provided insight into each of the methods and various statistical properties addressed by them employed in ranking GCMs. Further; evaluation was also performed for raw GCM simulations against different sets of gridded observational dataset in the area.