Uncertainty analysis of urban sewer system using spatial simulation of radar rainfall fields: New York City case study

The goal of this study is to investigate the uncertainty of an urban sewer system’s response under various rainfall and infrastructure scenarios by applying a recently developed nonparametric copula-based simulation approach to extreme rainfall fields. The approach allows for Monte Carlo simulation of multiple variables with differing marginal distributions and arbitrary dependence structure. The independent and identically distributed daily extreme rainfall events of the corresponding urban area, extracted from nationwide high resolution radar data stage IV, are the inputs of the spatial simulator. The simulated extreme rainfall fields were used to calculate excess runoff using the Natural Resources Conservation Service’s approach. New York City is selected as a case study and the results highlight the importance of preserving the spatial dependence of rainfall fields between the grids, even for simplified hydrologic models. This study estimates the probability of combined sewer overflows under extreme rainfall events and identifies the most effective locations in New York City to install green infrastructure for detaining excess stormwater runoff. The results of this study are beneficial for planners working on stormwater management and the approach is broadly applicable because it does not rely on extensive sewer system information.     

Sedimentary and geochemical evidence of Eocene climate change in the Xining Basin,northeastern Tibetan Plateau

The northeastern Tibetan Plateau began to grow during the Eocene and it is important to understand the climatic history of Asia during this period of so-called ‘doubthouse' conditions. However, despite major advances in the last few decades,the evolutionary history and possible mechanisms of Eocene climate change in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau remain unclear.The Xining Basin in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau contains a continuous sequence of Early to Late Eocene non-marine sediments which provides the opportunity to resolve long-term climate changes during this period. In this study, we report the results of analyses of lithofacies, sediment color and geochemistry of bulk samples collected from the Xijigou section of the Xining Basin. An abrupt lithofacies change between the Early(~52–40 Ma) and Late Eocene(~40–34 Ma) indicates a change in the depositional environment from a shallow lake to a playa lake in response to a significant climatic shift. During ~52–40 Ma,higher values of sediment redness(a*), redness/lightness(a*/L*) and higher modified Chemical Index of Weathering(CIW′)indicate a relatively warm and humid climate, while from ~40–34 Ma the lower values of a*, a*/L*and lower CIW′ imply subhumid to semi-arid climatic conditions. The paleoclimatic records indicate a long-term(~52–34 Ma) trend of decreasing chemical weathering, consistent with global climate change. An abrupt sharp excursion of the proxy records during ~42–40 Ma suggests a relatively brief warm interval, corresponding to the Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum(MECO). We suggest that global cooling substantially reduced humidity in inner Asia, resulting in sub-humid to semi-arid climatic conditions after 40 Ma in the Xining Basin, which may have been responsible for the long-term trend of decreasing chemical weathering during the Eocene.     

Free polyamine content during algal bloom succession in the East China Sea in spring 2010

We measured the concentrations and distribution of major polyamines(spermine, putrescine and spermidine) in seawater during successive spring algal blooms in an area of frequent harmful blooms in the East China Sea. Spermine, putrescine, and spermidine concentrations were analyzed by high performance liquid chromatography and ranged from 1–64, 7–81, and 0–19 nmol/L. Spermine was present at the highest concentrations, followed by putrescine and spermidine. In late April, when a diatom bloom dominated by Skeletonema costatum dispersed, polyamine concentrations increased, presumably as a result of diatom decomposition. In early May, when a dinoflagellate bloom dominated by Prorocentrum donghaiense occurred, the polyamine concentration decreased from the level seen in late April. The abundant polyamines that decomposed and were released during the diatom bloom in late April may have promoted the growth of P. donghaiense, resulting in its dominance.     

Developing land use scenario dynamics model by the integration of system dynamics model and cellular automata model

Models of land use change are useful tools for un-derstanding the analysis of the cause and conse-quences of land use changes, assessing the impacts of land use system on ecological system and supporting land use planning and policy[1,2]. Modeling land use scenario changes and its potential impacts on the structure and function of the ecosystem in the typical regions are regarded as one of the good ways to un-derstand the interactive mechanism between land use system and ecological system[3―10…     

An analysis of the causes of decadal variations of rainfall in Shandong in summer

The precipitation in Shandong in July, August as well as the whole summer (JJA) and the corresponding 500hPa geopotential height fields are analyzed by means of the SVD (singular value decomposition) methodology. It is found that the general circulations in East Asia and the Western Pacific underwent decadal changes around 1979. The geopotential height, in particular over key areas like the South China Sea and the Philippines, increased after 1979. Corresponding to the changes in the geopotential height, the rainfall in Shandong started to decrease around 1979. The synthesized analysis shows that when the geopotential height at 500hPa level decreases in the key areas, the Western Pacific subtropical high shifts northward and an anticyclonic anomalous cell enforces the southerly flow over Shandong-Korea-Japan, Shandong could experience a wet period. A dry period is likely to occur when the geopotential height increases in these key areas, the subtropical high moves southward or expands westward to a great distance, and a cyclonic anomalous cell controls Shandong. Respective conceptual models for the causative mechanism are obtained for the cases of July, August and the whole summer (JJA).     

The sedimentary characteristics and formation mechanism of shell ridges along the southwest coast of Bohai Bay

The present paper studies the sedimentary characteristics and mechanism of the shell ridges on the southwestern coast of Bohai Bay, which are the largest and have the highest shell (or shell fragment) content in the world. These shell ridges are composed of two sedimentary subfacies: the ridge subfacies and the ridge infill subfacies with different inner textures and sedimentary structures. The ridge subfacies primarily consists of fresh shells and/or shell fragments with parallel beddings and high-angle oblique beddings. The ridge infill subfacies consists of finer shell fragments and silty sand with parallel beddings oblique to land. The evolution of the shell ridge is controlled by the accumulation of substantial shell material,the relative slow erosion of shoreline, storm waves, winds and the shift of river routes. Wind tunnel tests indicate that the critical movement velocity of shell is lower than that of quartz sand of the same grain size. Deltaic progradation alternates with shell ridge growth. While the Yellow River empties into the sea through this area, accompanied by deltaic progradating, the shell material is scarce, which is unfavorable to the growth of the shell ridge. Conversely, erosion occurs along an abandoned delta coast where a shell ridge may develop, e.g. the shell ridge on the southwest of Bohai Bay.     

Effect of growth phase on the fatty acid compositions of four species of marine diatoms

The fatty acid compositions of four species of marine diatoms (Chaetoceros gracilis MACC/B13, Cylindrotheca fusiformis MACC/B211, Phaeodactylum tricornutum MACC/B221 and Nitzschia closterium MACC/B222), cultivated at 22 ℃±1 ℃ with the salinity of 28 in f/2 medium and harvested in the exponential growth phase, the early stationary phase and the late stationary phase, were determined. The results showed that growth phase has significant effect on most fatty acid contents in the four species of marine diatoms. The proportions of 16:0 and 16: 1n-7 fatty acids increased while those of 16 :3n-4 and eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) decreased with increasing culture age in all species studied. The subtotal of saturated fatty acids (SFA) increased with the increasing culture age in all species with the exception of B13. The subtotal of monounsaturated fatty acids (MUFA) increased while that of polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) decreased with culture age in the four species of marine diatoms. MUFA reached their lowest value in the exponential growth phase, whereas PUFA reached their highest value in the same phase.     

Estimating the reproduction quality of precipitation over the north atlantic and influence of the hydrostatic approximation in the WRF–ARW atmospheric model

The Weather Research and Forecast numerical model (WRF) with the dynamic Advanced Research WRF (ARW) solver was used to simulate the winter (January 2016) and summer (July 2015) atmospheric state over the North Atlantic with a high (15 km) spatial resolution. The quality of precipitation modeling was validated by remote sensing Global Precipitation Measurements (GPM) data and atmospheric ERA-Interim reanalysis. Nonhydrostatic and hydrostatic equations for the vertical velocity were additionally used to investigate their influence on the accuracy of the precipitation modeling results. It was shown that the model in this configuration satisfactorily reproduces the precipitation field. No evidence of hydrostatic approximation was revealed (over a simulation domain with a resolution of 15 km, simplified topography, and parameterizations of convection and microphysical processes).     

Effects of varying densities on serum reproductive parameters in pen-reared juvenile female rainbow trout <Emphasis Type="Italic">Oncorhynchus mykiss</Emphasis> farms

The primary goal of this study was to assess the effect of varying densities on serum reproductive parameters of immature rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss. Experimental trout were maintained in intensive, pen-reared farms for 300 days in fresh water reservoirs. Initial densities were 4.6, 6.6, and 8.6 kg/m³ (40, 60, 80 ind./m³), indicated as SD1, SD2, SD3, and final densities were 31.1, 40.6, 49.3 kg/m³, respectively. A summary of the ovarian stages were observed by histological examination. Serum E₂ (estradiol), T (testosterone) were evaluated by radioimmunoassay and FSH (follicle-stimulating-hormone), LH (luteinizing-hormone), vitellogenin, 17α,20β-P (17α,20βdihydroxy4-pregnen-3-one) were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Our findings demonstrated that ovarian development were retarded (from stage III to stage IV) at highest rearing density (SD3) after 180 days of intensive culture (over 40.6 kg/m³). In addition, we observed an inverse relationship between serum reproductive parameters and rearing density. Furthermore, compared to serum reproductive parameters of SD1, E₂, T, FSH, vitellogenin, 17α,20β-P, GSI and LH of two higher density groups decreased firstly and significantly at 60 (over 15.9 kg/m 3 ), 180 (over 31.7 kg/m 3 ), 180 (over 40.6 kg/m³), 240 (over 36 kg/m³), 240 (over 36 kg/m³), 240 (over 45 kg/m³) and 300 (over 49.3 kg/m³) days, respectively. Comparing serum reproductive parameters within the same ovarian development stage of rainbow trout from varying densities revealed that higher population density also led to significantly lower overall serum reproductive parameters. Overall, this study presents the reproductive, endocrinological parameters of juvenile female rainbow trout at high rearing densities and indicates the need for rainbow trout (114.44±5.21 g, 19.69±0.31 cm) that are initially stocked at 6.6 or 8.6 kg/m³ should be classified and subdivided into lower density after 180 days of farming (not over 31.7 kg/m³).