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61.
62.
This paper measures the influence of climate normals (average long-term surface wetness and temperature) and interannual climate variance on farms in the United States and Brazil using satellite data. The paper finds that just climate normals or just climate variance variables can explain both net revenues and how much land is used for cropland. However, because they are correlated with each other, it is important to include both normals and variance in the same statistical model to get accurate measures of their individual contribution to farm outcomes. In general, higher climate variance increases the probability that land is used for cropland in both countries and higher temperatures reduce both cropland and land values. Other annual effects were not consistent across the two countries.  相似文献   
63.
We have analyzed the H filtergrams and vector magnetograms of the active region NOAA 7070, in which a 3B/X3.3 flare occurred on February 27, 1992. The average area per sunspot of this active region was in declining phase at the time of the flare. The vector magnetograms indicate that the magnetic field was non-potential at the flaring site. Besides non-potentiality, the longitudinal field gradient was found to be the highest at the region showing initial H brightening. Further, in H filtergrams no appreciable change in the morphology of the filament tracing the magnetic neutral line was noticed in the post-flare stage. Also, the photospheric vector magnetograms show considerable shear in post-flare magnetic field of the active region. In this paper we present the observations and discuss the possible mechanism responsible for the 3B/X3.3 flare.  相似文献   
64.
We have monitored seismic activity induced by impoundment of Lake Jocassee in northwest South Carolina for about two years. Low-level shallow activity was recorded. The larger felt events (2.0 ? ML ? 2.6) were found to be associated with precursory changes in one or more of the following; number of events, tS/tp ratio values and radon concentrations in groundwater.The microearthquakes in the precursory period were accurately located in time and space, and their location pattern was used to develop an empirical earthquake prediction model.The precursory period consists of two phases; α-phase or a period of slow (or no) increase in seismicity, and β-phase, a period when the activity increase is more rapid. The main shock was found to be located within a cluster, a “target” area defined by the location of events in the β-phase. There is a general absence of seismic activity in the “target” area in the α-phase. The main shock occurred soon after a period of quiescence in the seismic activity in the β-phase. The magnitude of the shock, ML is given by: ML = 2 log D ? 0.07, where D is the duration of the precursory period in days.The model was successfully tested with data for a magnitude 2.3 event on February 23, 1977 which was also accompanied by radon and ts/tp anomalies.  相似文献   
65.
The O-C diagram of BZ Eri has been presented for the first time, and the period variations present in the system have been analysed. In all, eight period decreases and eight period increases are noticed. Of these, four period decreases and seven period increases are appreciable. The strongest period changes are noticed in the interval 1960 to 1962. The total period change in different portions of the O-C diagram ranges from 1.17×10–3 d to 3.96×10–6 d. The trend of the period variation appears to have reversed around the year 1980.  相似文献   
66.
The new period (P=0 . d 461700) of the eclipsing binary system DX Aqr has been presented, which is based on available times of minima. O–C diagram of DX Aqr has been presented for the first time, and the period variations present in the system have been analysed. In all five period increases and five period decreases are nothed, and four period increases and five period decreases have been discussed. The strongest period increase occurs between 1975 and 1976. The total period change in different portions of the O–C diagram ranges from 1.40×10–4 d to 3.61×10–6 d. Appreciable period fluctuations have been noted to have occurred in the time intervals, 1964–1965 and 1974–1975.  相似文献   
67.
A multi-variable adaptive autopilot for the dive-plane control of submarines is designed. The vehicle is equipped with bow and stern hydroplanes for maneuvering. It is assumed that the system parameters are not known, and the disturbance force is acting on the vehicle. Based on a back-stepping design approach, an adaptive control law is derived for the trajectory control of the depth and the pitch angle. To prevent singularity in the control law, the SDU decomposition of the high-frequency gain matrix is used for the design. In the closed-loop system, asymptotic tracking of the reference depth and pitch angle trajectories is accomplished. Simulation results are presented which show that the submarine performs dive-plane maneuvers in spite of the uncertainties in the system parameters and disturbance forces.  相似文献   
68.
Geomagnetic super-storms of October and November 2003 are compared in order to identify solar and interplanetary variables that influence the magnitude of geomagnetic storms. Although these superstorms (DST < -300 nT) are associated with high speed CMEs, their DST indices show large variation. The most intense storm of November 20, 2003 (DSt∼ - 472 nT) had its source in a comparatively small active region and was associated with a relatively weaker, M-class flare, while the others had their origins in large active regions and were associated with strong X-class flares. An attempt has been made to implement a logistic regression model for the prediction of the occurrence of intense/superintense geomagnetic storms. The model parameters (regression coefficients) were estimated from a training data-set extracted from a data-set of 64 geo-effective CMEs observed during 1996–2002. The results indicate that logistic regression models can be effectively used for predicting the occurrence of major geomagnetic storms from a set of solar and interplanetary factors. The model validation shows that 100% of the intense storms (-200 nT < DSt < -100 nT) and only 50% of the super-intense (DST < -200 nT) storms could be correctly predicted.  相似文献   
69.
Solar filaments show the position of large-scale polarity-inversion lines and are used for the reconstruction of large-scale solar magnetic field structure on the basis of Hα synoptic charts for the periods that magnetographic measurements are not available. Sometimes crossing filaments are seen in Hα filtergrams. We analyze daily Hα filtergrams from the archive of Big Bear Solar Observatory for the period of 1999 – 2003 to find crossing and interacting filaments. A number of examples are presented and filament patterns are compared with photospheric magnetic field distributions. We have found that all crossing filaments reveal quadrupolar magnetic configurations of the photospheric field and presume the presence of null points in the corona.  相似文献   
70.
In recent years, spatial variability modeling of soil parameters using random field theory has gained distinct importance in geotechnical analysis. In the present study, commercially available finite difference numerical code FLAC 5.0 is used for modeling the permeability parameter as spatially correlated log-normally distributed random variable and its influence on the steady state seepage flow and on the slope stability analysis are studied. Considering the case of a 5.0 m high cohesive–frictional soil slope of 30°, a range of coefficients of variation (CoV%) from 60 to 90% in the permeability values, and taking different values of correlation distance in the range of 0.5–15 m, parametric studies, using Monte Carlo simulations, are performed to study the following three aspects, i.e., (i) effect of stochastic soil permeability on the statistics of seepage flow in comparison to the analytic (Dupuit′s) solution available for the uniformly constant permeability property; (ii) strain and deformation pattern, and (iii) stability of the given slope assessed in terms of factor of safety (FS). The results obtained in this study are useful to understand the role of permeability variations in slope stability analysis under different slope conditions and material properties.  相似文献   
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