Comparison of recorded rainfall with quantitative precipitation forecast in a rainfall-runoff simulation for the Langat River Basin, Malaysia

Observed rainfall is used for runoff modeling in flood forecasting where possible, however in cases where the response time of the watershed is too short for flood warning activities, a deterministic quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) can be used. This is based on a limited-area meteorological model and can provide a forecasting horizon in the order of six hours or less. This study applies the results of a previously developed QPF based on a 1D cloud model using hourly NOAA-AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) and GMS (Geostationary Meteorological Satellite) datasets. Rainfall intensity values in the range of 3–12 mm/hr were extracted from these datasets based on the relation between cloud top temperature (CTT), cloud reflectance (CTR) and cloud height (CTH) using defined thresholds. The QPF, prepared for the rainstorm event of 27 September to 8 October 2000 was tested for rainfall runoff on the Langat River Basin, Malaysia, using a suitable NAM rainfall-runoff model. The response of the basin both to the rainfall-runoff simulation using the QPF estimate and the recorded observed rainfall is compared here, based on their corresponding discharge hydrographs. The comparison of the QPF and recorded rainfall showed R² = 0.9028 for the entire basin. The runoff hydrograph for the recorded rainfall in the Kajang sub-catchment showed R² = 0.9263 between the observed and the simulated, while that of the QPF rainfall was R² = 0.819. This similarity in runoff suggests there is a high level of accuracy shown in the improved QPF, and that significant improvement of flood forecasting can be achieved through ‘Nowcasting’, thus increasing the response time for flood early warnings.     

An effective visualization and comparison of online terrain draped with multi-sensor satellite images

The objective of this paper is to discuss the effectiveness of visualizing online 3D terrain draped with different satellite imageries. The topographic data of the study area were obtained from the contour maps of Universiti Putra Malaysia, Selangor, Malaysia. The high resolution satellite imageries used in this project involving QUICKBIRD (0.6 m resolution), IKONOS (1 m resolution), and SPOT5 (5 m resolution). R2V software was used for editing the contour data, whereas Arc GIS was used for overlaying the imageries over the 3D terrain data. Then the data were exported into Virtual Reality Markup Language to compare the effectiveness of different satellite imageries based on the data file size, imageries size, number of images tile, loading time during office hours (from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m.) and out of office hours (after 5 p.m.), frame rate per second, and visualization quality. The results revealed that IKONOS satellite imageries are better for an effective online 3D terrain visualization utilizing GIS data even though it has lower resolution compared to QUICKBIRD.     

Potential fish habitat mapping using MODIS-derived sea surface salinity,temperature and chlorophyll-a data: South China Sea Coastal areas,Malaysia

This paper demonstrates the use of moderate resolution imaging spectro-radiometer (MODIS) data for fish forecasting mapping of seasonal spatial distribution of sea surface salinity (SSS), temperature (SST) and chlorophyll-a in the ocean waters off the coast of Semporna, Malaysia. Multi-linear regression analysis was performed to estimate SSS and the Brown and Minnet algorithm was used for the SST. The extracted parameters were validated using in situ measurement taken with Hydro-Lab equipment. The extracted parameters from MODIS images reveal the signature values which establish the relationships between these parameters, and thus delineating the potential fish zonation (PFZ) map. These developed models will help for accurate monitoring of large coverage areas at low cost and within short period of time. Furthermore, such models will allow the prediction of the total fish catch in different seasons, thus contributing to fish industry management and marketing. This research recommends the use of PFZ map for mass scale fish harvesting in short time for larger areas. Finally, the research has developed a potential fish zone model amalgamating all the above parameters. The PFZ mapping was carried out off the coast of Semporna, Sabah as there were sufficient fish catch data for accuracy assessment. The R was computed as 0.93 and the higher fish catch areas have coincided very well with the higher PFZ values, meaning the tool is ready for use for operational near real-time fish forecasting.     

Flooding and its relationship with land cover change,population growth,and road density

Bangladesh experiences frequent hydro-climatic disasters such as flooding.These disasters are believed to be associated with land use changes and climate variability.However,identifying the factors that lead to flooding is challenging.This study mapped flood susceptibility in the northeast region of Bangladesh using Bayesian regularization back propagation(BRBP)neural network,classification and regression trees(CART),a statistical model(STM)using the evidence belief function(EBF),and their ensemble models(EMs)for three time periods(2000,2014,and 2017).The accuracy of machine learning algorithms(MLAs),STM,and EMs were assessed by considering the area under the curve-receiver operating char-acteristic(AUC-ROC).Evaluation of the accuracy levels of the aforementioned algorithms revealed that EM4(BRBP-CART-EBF)outperformed(AUC＞90％)standalone and other ensemble models for the three time periods analyzed.Furthermore,this study investigated the relationships among land cover change(LCC),population growth(PG),road density(RD),and relative change of flooding(RCF)areas for the per-iod between 2000 and 2017.The results showed that areas with very high susceptibility to flooding increased by 19.72％between 2000 and 2017,while the PG rate increased by 51.68％over the same period.The Pearson correlation coefficient for RCF and RD was calculated to be 0.496.These findings highlight the significant association between floods and causative factors.The study findings could be valuable to policymakers and resource managers as they can lead to improvements in flood management and reduction in flood damage and risks.     

Redefining homogeneous climate regions in Bangladesh using multivariate clustering approaches

Natural Hazards - The knowledge of the climate pattern for a particular region is important for taking appropriate actions to alleviate the impact of climate change. It is also equally important...     

基于Ecopath模型的孟加拉国孟加拉湾海域营养结构和能量流动分析

依据现有研究提供的信息，在孟加拉国孟加拉湾（BoB）新划定的超过90 000 km²的海域基于Ecopath方法利用2016年7月至2017年6月的数据构建了该生态系统的营养通道模型。对食物网中营养级从1（主要生产者和碎屑）到3.45（鲨鱼）的各功能群之间的营养相互作用进行评估，所研究的共19个功能群被认为代表了其中所有的营养级。大多数消费者的生态营养转换效率（EE）超过0.80；表明这是一个被高度利用的生态系统，并且从低营养级到高营养级有较高的能量转换效率。此外，整个生态系统的净效率（0.0018）和能量转换效率（11.12%）标志着当前这一"正在发展中的生态系统"已趋向成熟。生态系统的冗余度（64.6）和聚合度（35.4）也表明了这一生态系统的稳定性。因此，本研究认为这一海域具有显著的后备力量面对压力情况并有能力快速恢复到初始状态。     

Determinants of farmers’ choice of adaptation methods to climate change in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia

This study identifies the major methods used by farmers to adapt to climate change in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia, the factors that affect their choice of method, and the barriers to adaptation. The methods identified include use of different crop varieties, tree planting, soil conservation, early and late planting, and irrigation. Results from the discrete choice model employed indicate that the level of education, gender, age, and wealth of the head of household; access to extension and credit; information on climate, social capital, agroecological settings, and temperature all influence farmers’ choices. The main barriers include lack of information on adaptation methods and financial constraints.     

New findings for the equilibrated enstatite chondrite Grein 002

Abstract— We report new petrographic and chemical data for the equilibrated EL chondrite Grein 002, including the occurrence of osbornite, metallic copper, abundant taenite, and abundant diopside. As inferred from low Si concentrations in kamacite, the presence of ferroan alabandite, textural deformation, chemical equilibration of mafic silicates, and a subsolar noble gas component, we concur with Grein 002's previous classification as an EL4‐5 chondrite. Furthermore, the existence of pockets consisting of relatively coarse, euhedral enstatite crystals protruding large patches of Fe‐Ni alloys suggests to us that this EL4‐5 chondrite has been locally melted. We suspect impact induced shock to have triggered the formation of the melt pockets. Mineralogical evidence indicates that the localized melting of metal and adjacent enstatite must have happened relatively late in the meteorite's history. The deformation of chondrules, equilibration of mafic silicates, and generation of normal zoning in Fe, Zn‐sulfides took place during thermal alteration before the melting event. Following parent body metamorphism, daubreelite was exsolved from troilite in response to a period of slow cooling at subsolidus temperatures. Exsolution of schreibersite from the coarse metal patches probably occurred during a similar period of slow cooling subsequent to the event that induced the formation of the melt pockets. Overall shock features other than localized melting correspond to stage S2 and were likely established by the final impact that excavated the Grein 002 meteoroid.