Simulated effect of a forest road on near‐surface hydrologic response: redux

In the work reported here the comprehensive physics‐based Integrated Hydrology Model (InHM) was employed to conduct both three‐ and two‐dimensional (3D and 2D) hydrologic‐response simulations for the small upland catchment known as C3 (located within the H. J. Andrews Experimental Forest in Oregon). Results from the 3D simulations for the steep unchannelled C3 (i) identify subsurface stormflow as the dominant hydrologic‐response mechanism and (ii) show the effect of the down‐gradient forest road on both the surface and subsurface flow systems. Comparison of the 3D results with the 2D results clearly illustrates the importance of convergent subsurface flow (e.g. greater pore‐water pressures in the hollow of the catchment for the 3D scenario). A simple infinite‐slope model, driven by subsurface pore‐water pressures generated from the 3D and 2D hydrologic‐response simulations, was employed to estimate slope stability along the long‐profile of the C3 hollow axis. As expected, the likelihood of slope failure is underestimated for the lower pore pressures from the 2D hydrologic‐response simulation compared, in a relative sense, to the higher pore pressures from the 3D hydrologic response simulation. The effort reported herein provides a firm quantitative foundation for generalizing the effects that forest roads can have on near‐surface hydrologic response and slope stability at the catchment scale. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Simple Temporal and Spatial Analysis of Flow in Complex Terrain in the Context of Wind Energy Modelling

A simple temporal and spatial analysisis done on wind speed and direction data from a number ofmeteorological towers separated by distances between roughly 1 and 100 kilometres. The analysis is done in the context of expected model error in wind energy calculations. The study first uses single point statistics to show the evolution of mean values with time. It is shown that strong seasonal signals are present and that stable means are achieved only after averaging periods of a year or more. The study then uses discrete Fourier transforms to show that significant amounts of spectral energy reside in modes with periods of a few days to less than a day. Frequency dependent cross correlation values are then derived and used to show how correlation between towers diminishes with increasing frequency. The mechanism responsible for this diminished correlation is shown through the comparison of cross-correlation phase as a function of frequency and its relationship to distance between towers. Error in wind energy estimates are shown to be strongly related to correlation and therefore distance over which the prediction is made. In summary, much of the inaccuracy in modelling flow in the context of wind energy calculations is due to a lack of scale separation between the deterministic part of the flow, which is well modelled, and that part of the flow that is stochastic at the length and time scales modelled.     

Implications of model uncertainty for the mapping of hillslope‐scale soil erosion predictions

An integrated modelling approach (MIRSED) which utilizes the process‐based soil erosion model WEPP (Water Erosion Prediction Project) is presented for the assessment of hillslope‐scale soil erosion at five sites throughout England and Wales. The methodology draws upon previous uncertainty analysis of the WEPP hillslope soil erosion model by the authors to qualify model results within an uncertainty framework. A method for incorporating model uncertainty from a range of sources is discussed as a first step towards using and learning from results produced through the GLUE (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation) technique. Results are presented and compared to available observed data, which illustrate that levels of uncertainty are significant and must be taken into account if a meaningful understanding of output from models such as WEPP is to be achieved. Furthermore, the collection of quality, observed data is underlined for two reasons: as an essential tool in the development of soil erosion modelling and also to allow further constraint of model uncertainty. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Geochemistry of waters in the Valley of Ten Thousand Smokes region, Alaska

Meteoric waters from cold springs and streams outside of the 1912 eruptive deposits filling the Valley of Ten Thousand Smokes (VTTS) and in the upper parts of the two major rivers draining the 1912 deposits have similar chemical trends. Thermal springs issue in the mid-valley area along a 300-m lateral section of ash-flow tuff, and range in temperature from 21 to 29.8°C in early summer and from 15 to 17°C in mid-summer. Concentrations of major and minor chemical constituents in the thermal waters are nearly identical regardless of temperature. Waters in the downvalley parts of the rivers draining the 1912 deposits are mainly mixtures of cold meteoric waters and thermal waters of which the mid-valley thermal spring waters are representative. The weathering reactions of cold waters with the 1912 deposits appear to have stabilized and add only subordinate amounts of chemical constituents to the rivers relative to those contributed by the thermal waters. Isotopic data indicate that the mid-valley thermal spring waters are meteoric, but data is inconclusive regarding the heat source. The thermal waters could be either from a shallow part of a hydrothermal system beneath the 1912 vent region or from an incompletely cooled, welded tuff lens deep in the 1912 ash-flow sheet of the upper River Lethe area.Bicarbonate-sulfate waters resulting from interaction of near-surface waters and the cooling 1953–1968 southwest Trident plug issue from thermal springs south of Katmai Pass and near Mageik Creek, although the Mageik Creek spring waters are from a well-established, more deeply circulating hydrothermal system. Katmai caldera lake waters are a result of acid gases from vigorous drowned fumaroles dissolving in lake waters composed of snowmelt and precipitation.     

Reply to Discussion of “Perceptual models of uncertainty for socio-hydrological systems: a flood risk change example”*

ABSTRACT

Ertsen discusses the representation of reality and uncertainty in our paper, raising three critical points. In response to the first, we agree that discussion of different interpretations of the concept of uncertainty is important when developing perceptual models – making different uncertainty interpretations explicit was a key motivation behind our method. Secondly, we do not, as Ertsen suggests, deny anyone who is not a “certified” scientist to have relevant knowledge. The elicitation of diverse views by discussing perceptual models is a basis for open discussion and decision making. Thirdly, Ertsen suggests that it is not useful to treat socio-hydrological systems as if they exist. We argue that we act as “pragmatic realists” in most practical applications by treating socio-hydrological systems as an external reality that can be known. But the uncertainty that arises from our knowledge limitations needs to be recognized, as it may impact on practical decision making and associated costs.     

Marine policy and disarmament

Disarmament has again become a major public concern in many nations. The main manifestations of this development have been demonstrations and marches and mass media attention to the possible consequences of a nuclear war. Less publicized has been governmental work, including that at the United Nations, in negotiating disarmament treaties.