Late Holocene mangrove dynamics dominated by autogenic processes

Generally, palaeoenvironmental interpretations consider only allogenic processes, when autogenic factors may have a strong influence on proxies of stratigraphic sequences. For instance, the Holocene history of the vegetation along the southern littoral of the State of Bahia in north‐eastern Brazil is characterized by mangrove dynamics controlled by allogenic processes. However, over smaller timescales (~700 years), autogenic processes may have controlled vegetation dynamics and hence observed pollen distribution. This work proposes tidal channel dynamics as one of the main cause for changes in pollen assemblage along the studied stratigraphic profiles during the last centuries, based on sedimentology, pollen and elemental analysis (δ¹³C, δ¹⁵N and C/N) and radiocarbon dating of sedimentary organic matter from two cores sampled from an abandoned meander and a tidal flat at the mouth of the Jucuruçu River. One core was sampled from a mangrove formed during the past ~550 cal yr bp . Another core recorded sediments in a várzea forest (swamp seasonally and permanently inundated by freshwater) located ~2.7 km from the current shoreline, which displayed a maximum age of ~680 cal yr bp . Two facies associations were identified: tidal channel (A) and tidal flat/oxbow lake (B). This work proposes allogenic processes as the main driving forces controlling the wetlands dynamics at the studied site during the Holocene. However, our data also reveal that part of the changes in vegetation over the last ~700 years reflect tidal channels and tidal flats development, which represent autogenic processes. The change in timescale analysis from the Holocene to recent centuries may have weakened the influence of allogenic factors. However, this needs interpretation with reference to the spatial scale of the depositional environment as the larger the depositional system analyzed, the stronger the influence of autogenic processes on stratigraphic sequences over longer timescales. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Joint second-order parameter estimation for spatio-temporal log-Gaussian Cox processes

We propose a new fitting method to estimate the set of second-order parameters for the class of homogeneous spatio-temporal log-Gaussian Cox point processes. With simulations, we show that the proposed minimum contrast procedure, based on the spatio-temporal pair correlation function, provides reliable estimates and we compare the results with the current available methods. Moreover, the proposed method can be used in the case of both separable and non-separable parametric specifications of the correlation function of the underlying Gaussian Random Field. We describe earthquake sequences comparing several Cox model specifications.     

The role of remote wind forcing in the subinertial current variability in the central and northern parts of the South Brazil Bight

Data analysis of continental shelf currents and coastal sea level, together with the application of a semi-analytical model, are used to estimate the importance of remote wind forcing on the subinertial variability of the current in the central and northern areas of the South Brazil Bight. Results from both the data analysis and from the semi-analytical model are robust in showing subinertial variability that propagates along-shelf leaving the coast to the left in accordance with theoretical studies of Continental Shelf Waves (CSW). Both the subinertial variability observed in along-shelf currents and sea level oscillations present different propagation speeds for the narrow northern part of the SBB (~?6–7 m/s) and the wide central SBB region (~?11 m/s), those estimates being in agreement with the modeled CSW propagation speed. On the inner and middle shelf, observed along-shelf subinertial currents show higher correlation coefficients with the winds located southward and earlier in time than with the local wind at the current meter mooring position and at the time of measurement. The inclusion of the remote (located southwestward) wind forcing improves the prediction of the subinertial currents when compared to the currents forced only by the local wind, since the along-shelf-modeled currents present correlation coefficients with observed along-shelf currents up to 20% higher on the inner and middle shelf when the remote wind is included. For most of the outer shelf, on the other hand, this is not observed since usually, the correlation between the currents and the synoptic winds is not statistically significant.     

Mineralogical signatures and sources of recent sediment in a large tropical lake

Two lead-210 (²¹⁰Pb) dated sediment cores from Chapala Lake were studied to identify the mineral composition of the sediments and to discuss its relation with trace metals. Minerals and trace metals reflected the domain of volcanic rocks (i.e. basalts, rhyolite and andesite) that characterize Chapala Lake and the Lerma River watershed. Redundancy analyses (RDA) were used to identify the sedimentary variables (magnetic susceptibility, organic matter, sand content, and mineral composition) that could be related to elemental composition. Despite the distance between the two cores (7.3 km) and hydrodynamic circulation the RDA showed that the main mechanism that controls the input of mineral species, and, therefore, element distributions in the lacustrine sediment of Chapala Lake, is related to the weathering of volcanic rocks in the Lerma-Chapala watershed, the consequent runoff and transport of fine grained catchment materials, and later in-lake processes. These findings highlight the importance of controlling watershed erosion to contribute to the improvement of the environmental quality of the lake.     

Some properties of local weighted second-order statistics for spatio-temporal point processes

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment - Diagnostics of goodness-of-fit in the theory of point processes are often considered through the transformation of data into residuals as a...     

Spatial pattern analysis using hybrid models: an application to the Hellenic seismicity

Earthquakes are one of the most destructive natural disasters and the spatial distribution of their epicentres generally shows diverse interaction structures at different spatial scales. In this paper, we use a multi-scale point pattern model to describe the main seismicity in the Hellenic area over the last 10 years. We analyze the interaction between events and the relationship with geological information of the study area, using hybrid models as proposed by Baddeley et al. (2013). In our analysis, we find two competing suitable hybrid models, one with a full parametric structure and the other one based on nonparametric kernel estimators for the spatial inhomogeneity.     

Impacts of Holocene and modern sea-level changes on estuarine mangroves from northeastern Brazil

Projections of the impacts of modern Relative Sea Level (RSL) rise on estuarine mangroves should be supported by coastal topographic data and records of mangrove dynamics under past RSL change. This work identified inland and seaward mangrove migrations along the Jucuruçu River (Bahia, Northeastern Brazil), during the Holocene based on sedimentary features, palynological and geochemical (δ¹³C, δ¹⁵N, C/N) data integrated with digital elevation models. During the Middle Holocene, in response to RSL rise, the estuary saw mangrove forest establish up to ~37 km inland. RSL stood between -1.4 (+0.36/-2.2 m) and +1 (2.19/0.2 m) around 7400 cal yr BP, and rose to a highest position of +3.25 (4.22/2.45 m) reached around 5350 cal yr BP. That marine incursion caused the inland replacement of freshwater vegetation by mangroves on tidal flats. Since then, the estuary experienced RSL fall, reducing inland tidal water salinity towards the Late Holocene, making that the mangroves were replaced by freshwater floodplain vegetation. Today, in the seaward part of the estuary near its mouth, mangroves occupy an area of ~10 km² along tidal channels. Considering a RSL rise of 98 cm up to the end of the 21^st century, at a rate significantly higher than that of Middle Holocene RSL rise (1.5 mm/yr) and fall (0.6 mm/yr), the current mangrove substrates are expected to drown and/or eroded near the coast, while new mangroves may establish inland, at topographically higher tidal flats in nowadays freshwater-tidal zones. Mangrove area could expand over 13 km² of coastal and flood plain. Following the same interaction between RSL/climate changes and Holocene mangrove dynamics, such upstream mangrove migration may be attenuated or intensified by changes in fluvial discharge. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sediment characteristics and internal architecture of offshore sand ridges on a tideless continental shelf (western Mediterranean)

An integrated approach combining swath bathymetry, an extensive dataset of vibrocores and high-resolution seismic reflection data was used to assess the origin and evolution of offshore sand ridges on a tideless continental shelf (Gulf of Valencia, western Mediterranean). The sand ridges are located in the mid-outer shelf at 55–85 m water depth, obliquely oriented to the shoreline. They are 1.5 to 7 m high, with a wavelength between 600 and 1,100 m and a mean height-to-wavelength ratio of 0.004. The sand ridges are composed of well-sorted medium sand and are partially covered by a mud layer, evidencing a moribund stage. They overlie an erosion surface that locally crops out at the seafloor and is interpreted as the Holocene wave-ravinement surface. In the sediment cores, this surface corresponds to an erosional lag composed of coarse sand and gravel with pebbles. Small topographic irregularities on this surface are interpreted as shoreline-associated features that may act as the precursor for ridge development. Their preservation within the sand ridges could be related to the hardness of these features. Internally, the sand ridges display high-angle dipping reflections, indicating ridge migration towards the southeast in the direction of the present-day sediment transport direction. The presence of interbedded mud layers, associated with these reflections, indicates intermittent episodes of mud deposition when active. The internal architecture of some small ridges also provides new insights into their transition from an active to moribund state, as evidenced by a change in the geometry of the internal units from progradational to aggradational, finally being overlain by onlapping finer deposits over the flanks and in the troughs. The Gulf of Valencia sand ridge field constitutes a valuable potential sand resource of 22 million m³ of well-sorted medium and coarse sand with limited mud content, which must be preserved as a strategic sand reservoir. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.