Simulated precipitation response to SST forcing and potential predictability in the region of the South Atlantic convergence zone

The sensitivity of the precipitation response in the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) to sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly is investigated by an inter-model comparison study of ensembles of multidecadal integrations of two atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs)—version 1 of the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP-1) model, and the NCAR community climate model (CCM3) version 3.6.6. Despite the different physical parameterizations, the two models consistently show an SST-forced signal located mainly over the oceanic portion of the SACZ. The signal has interannual-to-decadal timescales, and consists of a shift and strengthening of the SACZ toward anomalous warm waters. A potential predictability analysis reveals that the maximum predictable variance is about 50% of the total SACZ variance over the ocean, but the signal attenuates rapidly toward the South American continent. This result implies that the land portion of the SACZ is primarily dominated by the internal variability, thereby having a limited potential predictability at seasonal timescales.     

Coastal processes and environmental hazards: the Buenos Aires (Argentina) and Venetian (Italy) littorals

The Buenos Aires (Argentina) and Venice (Italy) coastlands have experienced significant saltwater contamination of the phreatic aquifer, coastal erosion, hydrodynamic changes and relative sea level rise processes due to natural and man-induced factors. These factors expose coastal areas to morpho-hydro-geological hazards, such as soil desertification, frequency and degree of flooding, littoral erosion, and the silting of river mouths and channels. Man-made interventions and actions, such as beach mining, construction of coastal structures and exploitation of aquifers without an adequate knowledge of the hydrology setting and an adequate management program, worsen these natural hazards. Uncontrolled human activity induces environmental damage to the overall coastal plains. The coastal plains play an important role in the social/economic development of the two regions based on land use, such as agriculture, horticulture, breeding, and tourism, as well as industry. Results of investigations on saltwater contamination, sea level rise and morphological changes recently performed in these two coastal areas are presented here.     

Ground motion characterization and seismic hazard assessment in Spain: context,problems and recent developments

This article points out some particular features conditioning seismic hazard assessments (SHA) in Spain, a region with low–moderate seismicity. Although sized earthquakes occurred in the past, as evidenced by historical documents and neotectonic studies, no large events occurred during the last decades. The absence of strong motion records corresponding to earthquakes with magnitude larger than 5.5 is an important obstacle for the development of ground motion models constrained by local data, with the consequent difficulty in SHA studies. In this paper, some recent developments aiming at providing solutions to these difficulties are presented. Specifically, a strong motion databank containing a massive collection of accelerograms and response spectra from different configurations source-path-site corresponding to earthquakes all over the world is introduced, together with software utilities for its management. A first application of this databank is the development of specific ground motion models for Spain and for the Mediterranean region that predict peak ground accelerations as a function of several definitions of magnitude, distance and soil class. The predictive power of these ground motion models is tested by contrasting their estimates with recently recorded ground motions. The comparison between our ground-motion models with others proposed in the literature for other areas reveals a regular overestimation of the expected ground motions at Spanish sites by the non-local models. Consequently, SHA studies based in external models may overestimate the predicted hazard at the Iberian sites. In the last part of the paper a method for checking whether the response spectra proposed in the Spanish Building Code (NCSE-02) are consistent with actual accelerometric data from recent low magnitude earthquakes is applied. The spectral shapes of the Spanish Building Code NCSE-02 are compared with the response spectral shapes deduced from the available accelerograms by normalising the response spectra with the recorded PGA. It is appreciated that the NCSE-02 spectral shapes are exceeded by a large number of actual spectral shapes for short periods (around 0.2 s), a result to be taken into account in further revisions of the NCSE-02 code. The issues tackled in this work constitute not only an improvement for ground-motion characterisation in Spain, but also provide guidelines of general interest for potential applications in other regions with similar seismicity.     

A hyperspectral experiment over tropical forests based on the EO-1 orbit change and PROSAIL simulation

ABSTRACT

We designed a unique hyperspectral experiment from the Earth Observing One (EO-1) orbit change to evaluate solar illumination effects over tropical forests in Brazil. Ten nadir-viewing Hyperion images collected over a fixed site and period of the year (July to August) were selected for analysis. We evaluated variations in reflectance and in 16 narrowband vegetation indices (VIs) with increasing solar zenith angle (SZA) from the pre-drift (2004–2008) to the EO-1 drift period (2011–2016). To detect changes in reflectance and shadows, we applied spectral mixture analysis (SMA) and principal component analysis (PCA) and calculated the similarity spectral angle (θ) between the vegetation spectra measured with variable SZA. The magnitude of the illumination effects was also evaluated from change-point analysis and nonparametric Mann-Whitney U tests applied over the time series. Finally, we complemented our experiment using the PROSAIL model to simulate the VIs variation with increasing SZA resultant from satellite drift. The results showed significant changes in Hyperion reflectance and VIs, especially when the EO-1 crossed the study area at earlier times and larger SZA in 2015 (9:05 a.m.; SZA = 59°) and 2016 (8:30 a.m.; SZA = 67°). Compared to the pre-drift period (10:30 a.m.; SZA = 45°), the SZA differences of 14° (2015) and 22° (2016) increased the shade fractions and decreased the vegetation brightness. PCA separated the pre-drift and drift reflectance datasets, showing shifts in scores due to changes in brightness. θ increased with SZA, indicating changes in the shape of the vegetation spectra with drift. For most VIs, the change-point analysis indicated 2015 (SZA = 59°) as the predominant year of detected changes. Compared to the EO-1 original orbit, the Plant Senescence Reflectance Index (PSRI), Anthocyanin Reflectance Index (ARI) and Structure Insensitive Pigment Index (SIPI) presented the largest positive changes during drift, while the Photochemical Reflectance Index (PRI), Visible Atmospherically Resistant Index (VARI) and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) had the largest negative changes. The effect size of the illumination geometry on these VIs was large, as indicated by increasing values of the Cohen’s r metric toward 2016. The anisotropy of the Hyperion VIs was generally consistent with that from PROSAIL in the simulated pre-drift and drift periods. Focusing on structural indices, it affected the relationships between VIs and simulated leaf area index (LAI) at large SZA.     

Stable isotope (C,O, S) systematics of the mercury mineralization at Idrija,Slovenia: constraints on fluid source and alteration processes

The world-class Idrija mercury deposit (western Slovenia) is hosted by highly deformed Permocarboniferous to Middle Triassic sedimentary rocks within a complex tectonic structure at the transition between the External Dinarides and the Southern Alps. Concordant and discordant mineralization formed concomitant with Middle Triassic bimodal volcanism in an aborted rift. A multiple isotopic (C, O, S) investigation of host rocks and ore minerals was performed to put constraints on the source and composition of the fluid, and the hydrothermal alteration. The distributions of the ¹³C and ¹⁸O values of host and gangue carbonates are indicative of a fracture-controlled hydrothermal system, with locally high fluid-rock ratios. Quantitative modeling of the ¹³C and ¹⁸O covariation for host carbonates during temperature dependent fluid-rock interaction, and concomitant precipitation of void-filling dolomites points to a slightly acidic hydrothermal fluid (¹³C–4 and ¹⁸O+10), which most likely evolved during isotopic exchange with carbonates under low fluid/rock ratios. The ³⁴S values of hydrothermal and sedimentary sulfur minerals were used to re-evaluate the previously proposed magmatic and evaporitic sulfur sources for the mineralization, and to assess the importance of other possible sulfur sources such as the contemporaneous seawater sulfate, sedimentary pyrite, and organic sulfur compounds. The ³⁴S values of the sulfides show a large variation at deposit down to hand-specimen scale. They range for cinnabar and pyrite from –19.1 to +22.8, and from –22.4 to +59.6, respectively, suggesting mixing of sulfur from different sources. The peak of ³⁴S values of cinnabar and pyrite close to 0 is compatible with ore sulfur derived dominantly from a magmatic fluid and/or from hydrothermal leaching of basement rocks. The similar stratigraphic trends of the ³⁴S values of both cinnabar and pyrite suggest a minor contribution of sedimentary sulfur (pyrite and organic sulfur) to the ore formation. Some of the positive ³⁴S values are probably derived from thermochemical reduction of evaporitic and contemporaneous seawater sulfates.Editorial handling: P. Lattanzi     

Sediment contamination in floodplains and alluvial terraces as an historical record of gold exploitation in the Carmo River basin,Southeast Quadrilátero Ferrífero,Minas Gerais,Brazil

This paper describes the geochemistry of sediment samples placed in floodplains and alluvial terraces downstream from gold mines in the Carmo River basin, Quadrilátero Ferrífero, Minas Gerais, Brazil. The geochemistry signature Na₂O, K₂O, SiO₂, CaO, MgO, Al₂O₃, Fe₂O₃, TiO₂, P₂O₅, Mn, As, Cu, Zn, Ba, Ni, Cr, S, Co were analyzed in different facies from stratigraphic profiles. As, Cu, Zn, and Mn anomalies are mainly associated with the clayed facies deposited in floodplains and oxbow lakes, and with coarse‐sediment facies deposited in the channel. The facies were accumulated by the gold exploitation activity in the region. The contamination of As, Cu, and Zn was controlled by minerals such as iron oxides and hydroxides (hematite, magnetite, and mainly goethite), manganese oxides, and sulfide‐rich minerals. The As‐bearing sediments of the region characterize one of the most As contaminated area of Brazil. Their main source is associated with gold exploration in the last three centuries.     

An audio-magnetotelluric investigation in Terceira Island (Azores)

Ten audio-magnetotelluric soundings have been carried out along a profile crossing the Serra do Cume caldera in the eastern part of the Terceira Island (Azores). The main objectives of this investigation were to detect geoelectrical features related with tectonic structures and to characterize regional hydrological and hydrothermal aspects mainly those related to geothermal fluid dynamics.Three-dimensional numerical investigation showed that the data acquired at periods shorter than 1 s are not significantly affected by ocean effect. The data was analysed using the Smith's decomposition method in order to investigate possible distortions caused by superficial structures and to estimate a global regional strike. The results suggest that in general the soundings were not distorted. A regional N55°W strike was chosen for the two-dimensional data inversion.The low-resistivity zones (10–30 ohm-m) displayed in the central part of the 2-D geoelectrical model have been interpreted as caused by hydrothermal circulation. The low-resistivity anomalies at the ends of the profile might be attributed to alteration zones with interaction of seawater intrusion. High-resistivity (> 300 ohm-m) values have been related with less permeable zones in the SW of Cinco Picos and Guilherme Moniz caldera walls.     

The Effect of Vegetation Productivity on Millet Prices in the Informal Markets of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger

Systematic evaluation of food security throughout the Sahel has been attempted for nearly two decades. Food security analyses have used both food prices to determine the ability of the population to access food, and satellite-derived vegetation indices that measure vegetation production to establish how much food is available each year. The relationship between these two food security indicators is explored here using correspondence analysis and through the use of Markov chain models. Two sources of quantitative data were used: 8 km normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometers (AVHRR) carried on the NOAA series of satellites, and monthly millet prices from 445 markets in Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso. The results show that the growing season vegetation production is related to the price of millet at the annual and the seasonal time scales. If the growing season was characterized by erratic, sparse rainfall, it resulted in higher prices, and well-distributed, abundant rainfall resulted in lower prices. The correspondence between vegetation production and millet prices is used to produce maps of millet prices for West Africa.     

Late Pleistocene–Holocene environments in Valle Carbajal, Tierra del Fuego, Argentina

The authors discuss Late Pleistocene–Holocene depositional environments in one of the Fuegian Andes valleys on the basis of palynological, geomorphological, and sedimentological analyses from two sites located near the Beagle Channel. The results obtained at these localities reinforce and refine the Late Pleistocene–Holocene climatic pattern previously recorded there. A colder period, associated with the Younger Dryas stadial event, is suggested by low Nothofagus pollen frequency, and communities of grass, low scrub, and shrub heath expanded into the low/middle slopes (10,310 ¹⁴C yr BP). By ca. 9500 ¹⁴C yr BP, warmer and drier conditions occurred, as evidenced by the development of open-grown vegetation in the valley floors (pollen zone O-3), followed by the expansion of open Nothofagus woodland (pollen zone O-2) in the middle Holocene. The milder climate subsequently changed, as indicated by the spreading of the closed forest and mire (pollen zone O-1), to more humid and cooler conditions during the last ca. 5000 yr BP.