Impact of model free parameters and sea-level rise uncertainties on 20-years shoreline hindcast: the case of Truc Vert beach (SW France)

Shoreline change is driven by various complex processes interacting at a large range of temporal and spatial scales, making shoreline reconstructions and predictions challenging and uncertain. Despite recent progress in addressing uncertainties related to the physics of sea-level rise, very little effort is made towards understanding and reducing the uncertainties related to wave-driven shoreline response. To fill this gap, the uncertainties associated with the long-term modelling of shoreline change are analysed at a high-energy cross-shore transport dominated site. Using the state-of-the-art LX-Shore shoreline change model, we produce a probabilistic shoreline reconstruction, based on 3000 simulations over the past 20 years at Truc Vert beach, southwest France, whereby sea-level rise rate, depth of closure and three model free parameters are considered uncertain variables. We further address the relative impact of each source of uncertainty on the model results performing a Global Sensitivity Analysis. This analysis shows that the shoreline changes are mainly sensitive to the three parameters of the wave-driven model, but also that the sensitivity to each of these parameters is strongly modulated seasonally and interannually, in relation with wave energy variability, and depends on the time scale of interest. These results have strong implications on the model skill sensitivity to the calibration period as well as for the predictive skill of the model in a context of future climate change affecting wave climate and extremes. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

40Ar/39Ar ages of L4, H5, EL6, and feldspathic ureilitic clasts from the Almahata Sitta polymict ureilite (asteroid 2008 TC3)

The Almahata Sitta (AhS) meteorite consists of disaggregated clasts from the impact of the polymict asteroid 2008 TC₃, including ureilitic (70%–80%) and diverse non-ureilitic materials. We determined the ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar release patterns for 16 AhS samples (3–1500 μg) taken from three chondritic clasts, AhS 100 (L4), AhS 25 (H5), and MS-D (EL6), as well as a clast of ureilitic trachyandesite MS-MU-011, also known as ALM-A, which is probably a sample of the crust of the ureilite parent body (UPB). Based on our analyses, best estimates of the ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages (Ma) of the chondritic clasts are 4535 ± 10 (L4), 4537–4555 with a younger age preferred (H5), and 4513 ± 17 (EL6). The ages for the L4 and the H5 clasts are older than the most published ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages for L4 and H5 meteorites, respectively. The age for the EL6 clast is typical of older EL6 chondrites. These ages indicate times of argon closure ranging up to 50 Ma after the main constituents of the host breccia, that is, the ureilitic components of AhS, reached the >800°C blocking temperatures of pyroxene and olivine thermometers. We suggest that these ages record the times at which the clasts cooled to the Ar closure temperatures on their respective parent bodies. This interpretation is consistent with the recent proposal that the majority of xenolithic materials in polymict ureilites were implanted into regolith 40–60 Ma after calcium–aluminum-rich inclusion and is consistent with the interpretation that 2008 TC₃ was a polymict ureilite. With allowance for its 10-Ma uncertainty, the 4549-Ma ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar age of ALM-A is consistent with closure within a few Ma of the time recorded by its Pb/Pb age either on the UPB or as part of a rapidly cooling fragment. Plots of age versus cumulative ³⁹Ar release for 10 of 15 samples with ≥5 heating steps indicate minor losses of ⁴⁰Ar over the last 4.5 Ga. The other five such samples lost some ⁴⁰Ar at estimated times no earlier than 3800–4500 Ma bp . Clustering of ages in the low-temperature data for these five samples suggests that an impact caused localized heating of the AhS progenitor ~2.7 Ga ago. In agreement with the published work, 10 estimates of cosmic-ray exposure ages based on ³⁸Ar concentrations average 17 ± 5 Ma but may include some early irradiation.