Method for Stochastic Inverse Modeling of Fault Geometry and Connectivity Using Flow Data

This paper focuses on fault-related uncertainties in the subsurface, which can significantly affect the numerical simulation of physical processes. Our goal is to use dynamic data and process-based simulation to update structural uncertainty in a Bayesian inverse approach. We propose a stochastic fault model where the number and features of faults are made variable. In particular, this model samples uncertainties about connectivity between the faults. The stochastic three dimensional fault model is integrated within a stochastic inversion scheme in order to reduce uncertainties about fault characteristics and fault zone layout, by minimizing the mismatch between observed and simulated data.     

The nature of MIS 3 stadial–interstadial transitions in Europe: New insights from model–data comparisons

15 abrupt warming transitions perturbed glacial climate in Greenland during Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3, 60–27 ka BP). One hypothesis states that the 8–16 °C warming between Greenland Stadials (GS) and Interstadials (GI) was caused by enhanced heat transport to the North Atlantic region after a resumption of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) from a weak or shutdown stadial mode. This hypothesis also predicts warming over Europe, a prediction poorly constrained by data due to the paucity of well-dated quantitative temperature records. We therefore use a new evidence from biotic proxies and a climate model simulation to study the characteristics of a GS–GI transition in continental Europe and the link to enhanced AMOC strength. We compare reconstructed climatic and vegetation changes between a stadial and subsequent interstadial – correlated to GS15 and GI14 (～55 ka BP) – with a simulated AMOC resumption using a three-dimensional earth system model setup with early-MIS 3 boundary conditions. Over western Europe (12°W–15°E), we simulate twice the annual precipitation, a 17 °C warmer coldest month, a 8 °C warmer warmest month, 1300 °C-day more growing degree days with baseline 5 °C (GDD5) and potential vegetation allowing tree cover after the transition. However, the combined effect of frequent killing frosts, <20 mm summer precipitation and too few GDD5 after the transition suggest a northern tree limit lying at ～50°N during GI14. With these 3 climatic limiting factors we provide a possible explanation for the absence of forests north of 48°N during MIS 3 interstadials with mild summers. Finally, apart from a large model bias in warmest month surface air temperatures, our simulation is in reasonable agreement with reconstructed climatic and vegetation changes in Europe, thus further supporting the hypothesis.     

Weichselian Late Pleniglacial surface winds over northwest and central Europe: a model–data comparison

Reconstructions of the Weichselian Late Pleniglacial wind direction in northwest and central Europe are reviewed and compared with palaeoclimate simulations performed with an atmospheric general circulation model. These reconstructions are based on proxy data containing information on former wind directions, such as relic dune forms, sediments and wind‐polished rock surfaces. The objective is to investigate whether: (1) the proxy information is internally consistent; and (2) in agreement with the model simulations. We find a general consensus in the proxy‐based reconstructions, indicating a dominant westerly to northwesterly wind in winter during the Late Pleniglacial. The model results indicate over the study area an atmospheric circulation in winter that is dominated by southwesterly to west‐northwesterly winds, which are stronger than the southwesterly winds in the present‐day climate. The main driving factors behind the anomalous atmospheric circulation in the Late Pleniglacial are the Laurentide Ice Sheet and a colder North Atlantic Ocean with a relatively extensive sea‐ice cover, leading to an eastward relocation of the Icelandic Low and an enhanced pressure gradient over northwest Europe. The minor difference in Late Pleniglacial wind direction between the reconstructions and model can be explained by a combination of uncertainties in the proxy data and the relatively low spatial resolution of the applied climate model. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Late Weichselian fluvio‐aeolian sands and coversands of the type locality Grubbenvorst (southern Netherlands): sedimentary environments,climate record and age

The Weichselian Late Pleniglacial and Lateglacial aeolian stratigraphy (Older Coversand I, Beuningen Gravel Bed, Older Coversand II, Younger Coversand I, Usselo Soil, Younger Coversand II) in the southern Netherlands has been reinvestigated in its type locality (Grubbenvorst). Sedimentary environments have been reconstructed and related to their climatic evolution based on periglacial structures. In addition, 22 optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) ages have been determined that provide an absolute chronology for the climatic evolution and environmental changes of the coversand area. From this work it appears that, prior to 25 ka fluvial deposition by the Maas dominated. After 25 ka fluvial activity reduced and deposition occurred in a fluvio‐aeolian environment with continuous permafrost (Older Coversand I). This depositional phase was dated between 25.2 ± 2.0 and 17.2 ± 1.2 ka. The upward increase of aeolian activity and cryogenic structures in this unit is related to an increase of climatic aridity and a decrease in sedimentation rate during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The Beuningen Gravel Bed, that results from deflation with polar desert conditions and that represents a stratigraphic marker in northwestern Europe, was bracketed between 17.2 ± 1.2 and 15.3 ± 1.0 ka. Based on this age result a correlation with Heinrich event H1 is suggested. Permafrost degradation occurred at the end of this period. Optical ages for the Older Coversand II unit directly overlying the Beuningen Gravel Bed range from 15.3 ± 1.0 ka at the base to 12.7 ± 0.9 ka at the top. Thus this regionally important Older Coversand II unit started at the end of the Late Pleniglacial and continued throughout the early Lateglacial. Its formation after the Late Pleniglacial (LP) maximum cold and its preservation are related to rapid climatic warming around 14.7 ka cal. BP. The Allerød age of the Usselo Soil was confirmed by the optical ages. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The fluvial cycle at cold–warm–cold transitions in lowland regions: A refinement of theory

A previously established non-linear theory of river cyclicity as a response to climate change states that short phases of fluvial instability occur both at the transition from relatively warm (temperate) to cold (periglacial) and from relatively cold to warm periods. Such instability typically starts with vertical erosion, successively followed by sedimentary fill of the erosive scar. In spite of frequent confirmation of this theory by geomorphological reconstructions, a few problems arise. First, there are fewer incision phases than climatic transitions. Secondly, remnants of erosion at ‘cold–warm’ transitions are scarce, in contrast to obvious erosion relics at ‘warm–cold’ transitions. Furthermore, it appears that the incision style is strikingly different at both kinds of climatic transitions. Similarly, the long stable phases are also expressed in terms of different floodplain development in cold and warm periods. These arguments require a modification of the general non-linear theory.At the transition from relatively temperate to colder conditions, rivers transformed gradually from a regular, low-energy, single-channel course to a periodically high-energy, multi-channel type. The latter (braided) type is characterized by intense lateral movement, rather than by deep vertical erosion. This results in a well-expressed morphology of wide, extensive floodplains and terraces. In contrast, the linear and constrained, meandering channels incise with small width–depth ratio and build floodplains of limited lateral extent. Consequences are twofold: 1) the spatial limitation of the deeply incised, meandering valleys at the beginning of warm periods counts against their recognition; 2) relatively strong, lateral migration of the braided rivers removes most traces of previous (meandering) systems, which contrasts with the limited lateral activity of confined meandering channels. It means that in a ‘warm–cold–warm’ alternation generally only one phase of vertical erosion is preserved, the one that is caused by the high-energy, braided river at the start of the cold period.     

On the origin of the folding in the Namurian strata at the Namur Citadelle,Belgium

A number of the features of folding at the Namur Citadelle, a classical outcrop of Namurian strata, can be interpreted in terms of penecontemporaneous deformation induced by sandstones overlying shales of lighter density. Variscan tectonics has then overprinted already folded rocks.