History matching and uncertainty quantification of facies models with multiple geological interpretations

Uncertainty quantification is currently one of the leading challenges in the geosciences, in particular in reservoir modeling. A wealth of subsurface data as well as expert knowledge are available to quantify uncertainty and state predictions on reservoir performance or reserves. The geosciences component within this larger modeling framework is partially an interpretive science. Geologists and geophysicists interpret data to postulate on the nature of the depositional environment, for example on the type of fracture system, the nature of faulting, and the type of rock physics model. Often, several alternative scenarios or interpretations are offered, including some associated belief quantified with probabilities. In the context of facies modeling, this could result in various interpretations of facies architecture, associations, geometries, and the way they are distributed in space. A quantitative approach to specify this uncertainty is to provide a set of alternative 3D training images from which several geostatistical models can be generated. In this paper, we consider quantifying uncertainty on facies models in the early development stage of a reservoir when there is still considerable uncertainty on the nature of the spatial distribution of the facies. At this stage, production data are available to further constrain uncertainty. We develop a workflow that consists of two steps: (1) determining which training images are no longer consistent with production data and should be rejected and (2) to history match with a given fixed training image. We illustrate our ideas and methodology on a test case derived from a real field case of predicting flow in a newly planned well in a turbidite reservoir off the African West coast.     

Variability of East Asian Winter Monsoon in Quaternary Climatic Extremes in North China

In order to examine high-frequency variations of East Asian winter monsoon in Quaternary climatic extremes, two typical loess–paleosol sequences in the Chinese Loess Plateau were investigated. Sandy layers in the loess deposits, the “Upper sand” and “Lower sand” (layers L9 and L15, respectively), which represent a high-resolution record of paleomonsoon changes, have been sampled at intervals of 5–6 cm from sections at Luochuan and Xifeng. The grain size and magnetic susceptibility was measured for all samples. The grain-size results (a proxy of winter monsoon strength) indicate that the winter monsoon strength fluctuated on a millennial timescale during cold climatic extremes, with climatic events of a few hundred to a few thousand years. However, the winter monsoon was relatively stable during warm periods. The magnetic susceptibility signal (a proxy of summer monsoon intensity) is practically constant over the same period. This is tentatively explained by the assumption that the summer monsoon intensity was too low to be recorded in the magnetic susceptibility signal. The intensified winter monsoon events show periodicities in a range of 1000 to 2770 yr, with a dominant cycle of approximately 1450 yr. The detection of this oscillation in older glacial stages strongly suggests that it may be a pervasive cycle of the cold climatic phases of the Quaternary. Millennial-scale variations of the winter monsoon may be caused by instability of the westerly jet, which is determined by temperature differences between the polar and the equatorial regions.     

A global perspective of the European chronostratigraphy for the past 650 ka

Characteristic global climatic events are employed to interpret the regional, land-based European stratigraphy. The Chinese loess record shows well expressed, continuous and reliably dated climatic signals of worldwide significance, which are well correlated with the marine oxygen isotope stratigraphy. The sequence in the surroundings of Ferdinandow in Poland plays a key role in the correlation of the European stratigraphy with the loess record and the oxygen isotope record. In particular, the complex but well-expressed Ferdinandowian Interglacial is a key marker because it shows striking similarities with the most pronounced soil complex of the last 700 ka years of the Chinese loess sequence (S5) and, by correlation, Oxygen isotope stages (OIS) 13–15. It follows that the Holsteinian Interglacial corresponds with the S4-soil and OIS 11. This appears to be confirmed by sequences deposited in the craters of the Central Massif, France. Problems of regional stratigraphical correlation in Europe persist, but is suggested that a general framework is now established.     

内蒙古鄂尔多斯高原古冰缘遗迹科学考察研究进展

冰缘遗迹(特别是冷生楔形构造及融冻褶皱)是重建古气候及第四纪晚期多年冻土环境的重要证据.内蒙古鄂尔多斯高原是我国北方地区冰缘现象最为发育的地区之一.为准确了解鄂尔多斯高原冰缘遗迹类型及其分布特征、区域冻土演化历史等,中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院和荷兰自由大学共同组成科研小组,于2018年5—6月组织了"鄂尔多斯高原...     

Differential tectonic movements in the confluence area of the Huang Shui and Huang He rivers (Yellow River), NE Tibetan Plateau,as inferred from fluvial terrace positions

In the Northeastern Tibetan Plateau (NETP), the courses of the Huang Shui and Huang He near their confluence are characterized by alternating gorges and wide depressions, segmenting the fluvial systems. The river valleys have developed terrace staircases, which are used to infer relative tectonic motions between the segments. The terrace staircases are correlated by means of relative height and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating. At least eight terraces are present, two of which have been dated by OSL (the sixth and the third ones; c. 70 and c. 24 ka, respectively). The correlated longitudinal terrace profiles show no distinct relative tectonic movements within the confluence area, demonstrating that this area behaved as one tectonic block. The correlation of the terrace staircase of this block with areas upstream (Xining area) and downstream (eastern Lanzhou area) indicates relative tectonic movements, which therefore represent different tectonic blocks. The fluvial incision rate since c. 70 ka was much higher in the confluence area than in the blocks upstream and downstream, possibly indicating relative uplift. This relatively strong uplift provided more space for differentiation within the terrace staircase as a result of climatic changes, leading to six terraces formed as a response to minor climatic fluctuations (10³–10⁴ year timescale) since the last interglacial. This may indicate that the stronger the tectonic movement the better the climatic imprint as expressed in the form of terrace development. Over a shorter timescale, two accumulation terraces with thick stacked deposits (>18 m) may indicate relative subsidence in the confluence, occurring sometime between 20 and 70 ka. This indicates changes in relative vertical crustal motions at timescales of tens of thousands of years. We speculate that the inferred tectonic motions are related to transpression movements in the NETP as a result of the collision of the Indian and Asian plates.     

洛川黄土地层定年的一个模式及其初步应用

选择黄土中２～１６μｍ的颗粒作为沉积速率相对稳定的大气粉尘沉降组分，根据黄土粒度变化与沉积速率变化的相关性，设计了以下的年代学模型:Ｔｍ＝Ｔ１＋（Ｔ２－Ｔ１）（∑ｍ_ｉ＝１ＣｉＨｉ）/（∑ｎ_ｉ＝１ＣｉＨｉ）以黄土地层中根据热释光和古地磁极性倒转点获得的绝对年代作为时间控制点，利用上面的模式对洛川第四纪黄土地层的年代进行了计算，结果表明该模式可以用于黄土高原中部黄土地层的精细定年。