Efficient sampling and data reduction techniques for probabilistic seismic lifeline risk assessment

Probabilistic seismic risk assessment for spatially distributed lifelines is less straightforward than for individual structures. While procedures such as the ‘PEER framework’ have been developed for risk assessment of individual structures, these are not easily applicable to distributed lifeline systems, due to difficulties in describing ground‐motion intensity (e.g. spectral acceleration) over a region (in contrast to ground‐motion intensity at a single site, which is easily quantified using Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis), and since the link between the ground‐motion intensities and lifeline performance is usually not available in closed form. As a result, Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and its variants are well suited for characterizing ground motions and computing resulting losses to lifelines. This paper proposes a simulation‐based framework for developing a small but stochastically representative catalog of earthquake ground‐motion intensity maps that can be used for lifeline risk assessment. In this framework, Importance Sampling is used to preferentially sample ‘important’ ground‐motion intensity maps, and K‐Means Clustering is used to identify and combine redundant maps in order to obtain a small catalog. The effects of sampling and clustering are accounted for through a weighting on each remaining map, so that the resulting catalog is still a probabilistically correct representation. The feasibility of the proposed simulation framework is illustrated by using it to assess the seismic risk of a simplified model of the San Francisco Bay Area transportation network. A catalog of just 150 intensity maps is generated to represent hazard at 1038 sites from 10 regional fault segments causing earthquakes with magnitudes between five and eight. The risk estimates obtained using these maps are consistent with those obtained using conventional MCS utilizing many orders of magnitudes more ground‐motion intensity maps. Therefore, the proposed technique can be used to drastically reduce the computational expense of a simulation‐based risk assessment, without compromising the accuracy of the risk estimates. This will facilitate computationally intensive risk analysis of systems such as transportation networks. Finally, the study shows that the uncertainties in the ground‐motion intensities and the spatial correlations between ground‐motion intensities at various sites must be modeled in order to obtain unbiased estimates of lifeline risk. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Successional changes in soil and hyporheic nitrogen fertility on an alluvial flood plain: implications for riparian vegetation

In floodplain primary succession, vegetation colonizes nitrogen-poor alluvial deposits and fertility improves as soil nitrogen accumulates over time. It is generally assumed that vegetation assimilates the vast majority of its nitrogen from the soil; however, recent studies have suggested that the hyporheic zone also may be an important nitrogen source. We investigated the potential relative importance of hyporheic nitrogen by comparing fertility indices, specifically total (TN), dissolved inorganic (DIN), potentially mineralizable (PMN) and ion exchange resin nitrogen (IERN) in both soils and the hyporheic zone at early, mid and late succession stands on an expansive river flood plain. We also constructed mesocosms to assess growth of cottonwood cuttings with access to soil and/or hyporheic water. We found TN and PMN increased from early to mid succession in both the soil (to 10 cm) and hyporheic zone (in a 10 cm layer). While TN, DIN and PMN were an order of magnitude higher in the soil than in the hyporheic zone, IERN was higher in the hyporheic zone, indicating that subsurface flow through the flood plain may be important in delivering nitrogen to the root zone. However, even when flux was added to the hyporheic PMN pool, nitrogen availability in the hyporheic zone (in a 10 cm layer) was vastly lower than soil PMN (to 10 cm). Further, the instantaneous standing stock of DIN in the surface soil alone was about equal to the sum of the DIN pool, the mean subsurface flux and the PMN pool in a 10 cm layer of hyporheic zone. In the mesocosm experiment, cottonwood cuttings with access to both soil and hyporheic water grew fastest; however, they also had the lowest foliar nitrogen concentrations, indicating that this was not due to greater nitrogen availability. In the field, nitrogen content of cottonwood foliage increased along with soil (but potentially hyporheic as well) nitrogen accumulation during succession, suggesting the vegetation responded to increasing nitrogen fertility. We conclude that at least on a per unit-volume basis, the hyporheic zone probably provides little nitrogen relative to the surface soil, except on new alluvial bars that characteristically are nitrogen poor. Therefore, the hyporheic zone is probably a much smaller nitrogen source for mature forests relative to the surface soil unless the vegetation exploits a much larger volume of the hyporheic zone than surface soil.     

A spatial cross‐correlation model of spectral accelerations at multiple periods

Many seismic loss problems (such as disruption of distributed infrastructure and losses to portfolios of structures) are dependent upon the regional distribution of ground‐motion intensity, rather than intensity at only a single site. Quantifying ground‐motion over a spatially‐distributed region therefore requires information on the correlation between the ground‐motion intensities at different sites during a single event. The focus of the present study is to assess the spatial correlation between ground‐motion spectral accelerations at different periods. Ground motions from eight well‐recorded earthquakes were used to study the spatial correlations. On the basis of obtained empirical correlation estimates, we propose a geostatistics‐based method to formulate a predictive model that is suitable for simulation of spectral accelerations at multiple sites and multiple periods, in the case of crustal earthquakes in active seismic regions. While the calibration of this model and investigation of its implications were somewhat complex, the model itself is very simple to use for making correlation predictions. A user only needs to evaluate a simple equation relying on three sets of coefficients provided here to compute a correlation coefficient for spectral values at two periods and at a specified separation distance. These results may then be used in evaluating the seismic risk of portfolios of structures with differing fundamental periods. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Performance spectra based method for the seismic design of structures equipped with passive supplemental damping systems

A new direct performance‐based design method utilizing design tools called performance‐spectra (P‐Spectra) for low‐rise to medium‐rise frame structures incorporating supplemental damping devices is presented. P‐Spectra are graphic tools that relate the responses of nonlinear SDOF systems with supplemental dampers to various damping parameters and dynamic system properties that structural designers can control. These tools integrate multiple response quantities that are important to the performance of a structure into a single compact graphical format to facilitate direct comparison of different potential solutions that satisfy a set of predetermined performance objectives under various levels of seismic hazard. An SDOF to MDOF transformation procedure that defines the required supplemental damping properties for the MDOF structure to achieve the response defined by the target SDOF system is also presented for hysteretic, linear viscous and viscoelastic damping devices. Using nonlinear time‐history analyses of idealized shear structures, the accuracy of the transformation procedure is verified. A seismic performance upgrade design example is presented to demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed method for achieving design performance goals using supplemental damping devices. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Conditional spectrum‐based ground motion selection. Part I: Hazard consistency for risk‐based assessments

The conditional spectrum (CS, with mean and variability) is a target response spectrum that links nonlinear dynamic analysis back to probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for ground motion selection. The CS is computed on the basis of a specified conditioning period, whereas structures under consideration may be sensitive to response spectral amplitudes at multiple periods of excitation. Questions remain regarding the appropriate choice of conditioning period when utilizing the CS as the target spectrum. This paper focuses on risk‐based assessments, which estimate the annual rate of exceeding a specified structural response amplitude. Seismic hazard analysis, ground motion selection, and nonlinear dynamic analysis are performed, using the conditional spectra with varying conditioning periods, to assess the performance of a 20‐story reinforced concrete frame structure. It is shown here that risk‐based assessments are relatively insensitive to the choice of conditioning period when the ground motions are carefully selected to ensure hazard consistency. This observed insensitivity to the conditioning period comes from the fact that, when CS‐based ground motion selection is used, the distributions of response spectra of the selected ground motions are consistent with the site ground motion hazard curves at all relevant periods; this consistency with the site hazard curves is independent of the conditioning period. The importance of an exact CS (which incorporates multiple causal earthquakes and ground motion prediction models) to achieve the appropriate spectral variability at periods away from the conditioning period is also highlighted. The findings of this paper are expected theoretically but have not been empirically demonstrated previously. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Conditional spectrum‐based ground motion selection. Part II: Intensity‐based assessments and evaluation of alternative target spectra

In a companion paper, an overview and problem definition was presented for ground motion selection on the basis of the conditional spectrum (CS), to perform risk‐based assessments (which estimate the annual rate of exceeding a specified structural response amplitude) for a 20‐story reinforced concrete frame structure. Here, the methodology is repeated for intensity‐based assessments (which estimate structural response for ground motions with a specified intensity level) to determine the effect of conditioning period. Additionally, intensity‐based and risk‐based assessments are evaluated for two other possible target spectra, specifically the uniform hazard spectrum (UHS) and the conditional mean spectrum (CMS, without variability).It is demonstrated for the structure considered that the choice of conditioning period in the CS can substantially impact structural response estimates in an intensity‐based assessment. When used for intensity‐based assessments, the UHS typically results in equal or higher median estimates of structural response than the CS; the CMS results in similar median estimates of structural response compared with the CS but exhibits lower dispersion because of the omission of variability. The choice of target spectrum is then evaluated for risk‐based assessments, showing that the UHS results in overestimation of structural response hazard, whereas the CMS results in underestimation. Additional analyses are completed for other structures to confirm the generality of the conclusions here. These findings have potentially important implications both for the intensity‐based seismic assessments using the CS in future building codes and the risk‐based seismic assessments typically used in performance‐based earthquake engineering applications. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Submarine Groundwater Discharge-Derived Nutrient Loads to San Francisco Bay: Implications to Future Ecosystem Changes

Submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) was quantified at select sites in San Francisco Bay (SFB) from radium (²²³Ra and ²²⁴Ra) and radon (²²²Rn) activities measured in groundwater and surface water using simple mass balance box models. Based on these models, discharge rates in South and Central Bays were 0.3?C7.4?m³?day^?1?m^?1. Although SGD fluxes at the two regions (Central and South Bays) of SFB were of the same order of magnitude, the dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) species associated with SGD were different. In the South Bay, ammonium (NH ₄ ⁺ ) concentrations in groundwater were three-fold higher than in open bay waters, and NH ₄ ⁺ was the primary DIN form discharged by SGD. At the Central Bay site, the primary DIN form in groundwater and associated discharge was nitrate (NO ₃ ^? ). The stable isotope signatures (??¹⁵N_NO3 and ??¹⁸O_NO3) of NO ₃ ^? in the South Bay groundwater and surface waters were both consistent with NO ₃ ^? derived from NH ₄ ⁺ that was isotopically enriched in ¹⁵N by NH ₄ ⁺ volatilization. Based on the calculated SGD fluxes and groundwater nutrient concentrations, nutrient fluxes associated with SGD can account for up to 16?% of DIN and 22?% of DIP in South and Central Bays. The form of DIN contributed to surface waters from SGD may impact the ratio of NO ₃ ^? to NH ₄ ⁺ available to phytoplankton with implications to bay productivity, phytoplankton species distribution, and nutrient uptake rates. This assessment of nutrient delivery via groundwater discharge in SFB may provide vital information for future bay ecological wellbeing and sensitivity to future environmental stressors.     

Invertebrate colonization of leaves and roots within sediments of intermittent Coastal Plain streams across hydrologic phases

Ecological flows between habitats are vital for predicting and understanding structure and function of recipient systems. Ecological flows across riparian areas and headwater intermittent streams are likely to be especially important in many river networks because of the shear extent of these interfaces, their high edge-to-width ratio, and the alternation of wet and dry conditions in intermittent channels. While there has been substantial research supporting the importance of riparian-stream linkages above-ground, comparatively less research has investigated below-ground linkages. We tested the hypothesis that riparian roots are colonized by invertebrates as a food source within stream beds of intermittent headwater streams. We compared benthic invertebrate assemblages colonizing three types of buried substrates (leaves, roots, and plastic roots) among three intermittent Coastal Plain streams, each with a different riparian management treatment (clearcut, thinned, and reference), over a 1-year period. Invertebrate density was significantly lower in root litterbags than in plastic roots litterbags, but neither differed from densities in leaf litterbags. Total invertebrate abundances, however, were significantly higher in leaf and root litterbags compared to abundances in plastic root litterbags. Invertebrate biomass and richness did not vary among substrates, but invertebrate density, abundance, and richness all declined from the wet phase (September–December) through the dry phase (June–August). Meiofauna and aquatic dipterans were the primary colonizing invertebrates during the wet phase. Relative abundance of terrestrial taxa increased during the dry phase, but their absolute abundance remained lower than aquatic taxa during the wet phase. Invertebrate composition did not differ among substrate types, but was significantly different among streams and time periods. Cumulative number of dry days, degree days, and redox depth all strongly correlated with assemblage structure as indicated by ordination scores. Our results suggest that subsurface invertebrates respond to leaves and roots as food sources, but assemblage composition is not substrate specific. Colonization of leaves and roots within stream beds by aquatic and terrestrial taxa supports the idea that headwater intermittent streams are important interfaces for the reciprocal exchange of energy and materials between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems.     

Comparison of alternative upscaled model formulations for simulating DNAPL source dissolution and biodecay

This paper compares the performance of analytical and numerical approaches for modeling DNAPL dissolution with biodecay. A solution derived from a 1-D advective transport formulation (“Parker” model) is shown to agree very closely with high resolution numerical solutions. A simple lumped source mass balance solution in which with decay is assumed proportional to DNAPL mass (“Falta1” model) over- or underpredicts aqueous phase biodecay depending on the magnitude of the exponential factor governing the relationship between dissolution rate and DNAPL mass. A modification of the Falta model that assumes decay proportional to the source exit concentration is capable of accurately simulating source behavior with strong aqueous phase biodecay if model parameters are appropriately selected or calibrated (“Falta2” model). However, parameters in the lumped models exhibit complex interdependencies that cannot be quantified without consideration of transport processes within the source zone. Combining the Falta2 solution with relationships derived from the Parker model was found to resolve these limitations and track the numerical model results. A method is presented to generalize the analytical solutions to enable simulation of partial mass removal with changes in source parameters over time due to various remedial actions. The algorithm is verified by comparison with numerical simulation results. An example application is presented that demonstrates the interactions of partial mass removal, enhanced biodecay, enhanced mass transfer and source zone flow reduction applied at various time periods on contaminant flux reduction. Increasing errors that arise in numerical solutions with coarse discretization and high decay rates are shown to be controlled by using an adjusted decay coefficient derived from the Parker analytical solution.     

A fresh look at discordant redshift galaxies in compact groups

We reexamine the statistics of discordant redshift galaxies in compact groups. We find that 43 out of 100 groups in the Hickson catalog contain at least one discordant redshift galaxy. We show that, despite the prevailing impression, all previous attempts have failed to explain this large number of discordant redshift galaxies. The order of magnitude excess survives all of our attempts to refine the sample.