对流层低层两类偏东风气流上物理量分布特征

山西是水资源缺乏省份之一。为了较准确掌握旱涝成因,本文对气候旱涝与农业旱涝的不同意义作了分析,并对几种旱涝指标及气候与农业旱涝的差别进行了简述,以进一步发展节水农业,促进水资源的合理利用。     

太阳活动异常与降水和地面气温的关系

利用1951~2000年太阳10.7 cm射电流量、全国160站观测到的降水和气温距平资料,分析了太阳活动异常对中国夏季、冬季降水和气温的影响。结果表明:太阳活动强的年份,夏季南方、东北少雨,黄河中上游流域、黄淮地区以及长江中上游则多雨;冬季全国均多雨。北方(尤其是东北和新疆)冬季气温偏高,夏季气温偏低。太阳活动弱的年份,夏季华南及黄河以北多雨,而长江流域及以北到黄河中上游夏季则少雨;冬季全国均少雨,北方冬季气温偏低。进一步讨论了中国东北地区夏季降水与太阳活动的密切关系。     

一种新的集合预报权重平均方法

提出了一种新的考虑权重的集合预报成员平均方法。使用气候等概率区间来对集合成员进行分组, 并根据气候等概率区间的大小及其中的成员数, 对集合成员的权重进行调整, 得到了一种改进的集合平均预报结果。检验表明, 它可以进一步提高集合平均预报的效果。相对于提高模式分辨率或发展庞大的集合预报系统, 这种方法的效果是显著的。     

泉州盆地及其邻区地壳深部结构的探测与研究

泉州盆地及其邻区地处我国大陆东南沿海地震带北段。通过对泉州盆地进行深地震反射探测，获得了该地区近地表至Moho面的精细几何结构及其深浅构造关系图像。这是该区第一条深地震反射探测剖面。分析结果表明，泉州盆地及其邻区地壳厚度变化在29．5～31．0km，由上地壳和下地壳组成。上地壳和下地壳又可以各分为2层。泉州盆地及其邻区近地表至浅部断裂发育，这些断裂向地壳深部最大延伸深度为6-12km，断裂的倾角随深度增加而逐渐变小，呈铲形正断层终止于上地壳上部反射界面C1，以上。在永安-晋江断裂带之下的上地壳下部和下地壳中，存在着切割上、下地壳分界面和Moho面的高倾角深断裂，尽管深浅部断裂构造不相连接，但由于深部存在深断裂，具有发生中强以上地震的深部构造环境。这一深地震反射探测成果的获得，使得泉州盆地及其邻区深部资料解释的可靠性和探测精度比以往显著提高；深浅部构造组合取得了统一的解释结果；地壳的分层和结构特征更为确切和精细；首次发现了上地壳的拉张性构造及铲式正断层组合特征。不仅有助于泉州及其邻区地震危险性的综合判定，而且对深化东南沿海地震带及台湾海峡深部动力学过程的认识具有重要意义。     

云南德宏“7.5”特大洪涝与滇缅高压

利用MICAPS系统资料对2004年7月5日云南省德宏州西部出现的突发性大暴雨、局部特大暴雨天气进行诊断分析，结果表明此次强降水与滇缅高压的建立有关，滇缅高压西侧强西南气流的存在和滇缅间低空急流的建立，为此次强降水提供了丰富的水汽和位势不稳定能量；而高原高压的南压和西藏东部至川西T形切变槽的加深东南移，有利于引导北方冷空气南下渗入。过程期间，物理量场表现出强水汽输送辐合及上升运动；冷空气与暖湿气流及特殊地形的综合作用激发出中a尺度降水云团，造成此次强降水。     

盾构掘进引起地表沉降的多因素敏感性分析

为了研究各因素在盾构法施工中对地表沉降的影响程度,基于敏感性分析原理,针对一地铁盾构实例,选取土体弹性模量、土仓压力、地下水等3个影响地表沉降的因素,通过变化某一基准参数,让其余影响因素固定,分析研究了盾构施工引起地表沉降对各因素的敏感性。结果如下:弹性模量提高10%时,地表累积最大沉降量可减小15%～20%;在地下水存在的情况下,地表沉降显著增大;而对于砂性土而言,土仓压力越高地表沉降值略有增加。研究结果表明:地表沉降对穿越地层的弹性模量和地下水比较敏感,而对土仓压力敏感性较小。     

岩溶地区钻孔灌注桩事故分析与处理

岩溶地区钻孔灌注桩基础施工难度大、问题多,且多为突发事故,施工中要有充分的防范意识,尽可能详尽地掌握地质资料,加强施工组织与管理,一般选用冲击钻作为岩溶地区施工的成孔设备。对常出现的漏浆、塌孔、卡钻、桩孔偏斜等事故应在回填材料充足,相关设备到位,做针对性的处理。     

Suppressing random noise to broaden the useful bandwidth of seismic reflection data

The signal-to-noise ratio （SNR） of seismic reflection data in many areas is rather poor and conventional two-dimensional filters designed to suppress noise with different moveout from the signal tend to generate artifacts. We have extended a method of multichannel filtering, based on the hypothesis that signals on adjacent channels are similar, for enhancing the SNR on stacked sections. Using only the mid-range frequencies where the SNR is highest, the event trend is found for overlapping windows on the section and the average signal vector is calculated. Then the data from the full bandwidth section are projected onto the spatially varying unit similarity vectors and the results are merged for the overlapping windows. Application of the method to synthetic data containing steeply dipping events and to a stacked section for a marine 2D line has produced good results. The modifications we have introduced carry a small overhead in computing time but they should enable the method to be used effectively even on sections containing steep dips.     

Expansion of Ürümqi urban area and its spatial differentiation

The expanded area and structure of urban lands and landscape features in Ürümqi City are analyzed using RS and GIS means based on the MSS image in 1975 and the TM images in 1990, 1999 and 2002, as well as other related maps. On which the scale, intensity and spatial differentiation of the expansion of the Ürümqi urban area during different periods are lucubrated. The results reveal that urban expansion was rapid during the periods of 1949–1965 and 1975–1990, and that it was stable after the 1990s. The urban expansion pattern was significantly different during different time periods: the urban area was expanded outwards based on old districts in a spanned development pattern during the period of 1949–1965; development was stagnant during the period of 1965–1975; urban expansion developed mainly in old districts in a grouped way during the period of 1975–1990. The trend of urban expansion along the traffic lines was obvious, and the direction of urban expansion was dominated by the south-north zonal expansion and supplemented by east-west axial expansion; urban expansion reached the development stage of “multiple centers and multiple districts” after the 1990s, and urban networks were developed more precisely after this time. The sources for urban expansion were mainly cultivated lands, grasslands and unused lands; during urban expansion, the land area devoted to traffic lines, residential areas, dispersive industrial and mineral areas, and garden plots was rapidly enlarged.