The accuracy of geopotential models

Extensive tests of two recent geopotential models (GEM 7 and 8) have been made with observations not used in the solutions. Several other recent models are also evaluated. These tests show the accuracy of the satellite derived model (GEM 7, with 400 coefficients) to be about 4.3 m (r.m.s.) with respect to the global geoid surface. The corresponding accuracy of the combined satellite and surface gravimetry model (GEM 8, with 706 coefficients) is found to be 3.9m (r.m.s.). These results include a calibration for the commission errors of the coefficients in the models and an estimate of the errors from omitted coefficients. For GEM 7, the formal precision (commission errors) of the solution gives 0.7 m for the geoid error which after calibration increases to 2.4 m.

Independent observations used in this assessment include: 159 lumped coefficients from 35 resonant orbits of 1 and 9 through 15 revolutions per day, two sets of (8, 8) fields derived from optical-only and laser-only data, sets of zonal and resonant coefficients derived from largely independent sources and geoid undulations measured by satellite altimetry. In addition, the accuracy of GEM 7 has been judged by the gravimetry in GEM 8. The ratio of estimated commission to formal error in GEM 7 and 8 ranges from 2 to 5 in these tests.     

Orbital-scale record of the late Cenomanian–Turonian oceanic anoxic event (OAE-2) in the Tarfaya Basin (Morocco)

High sedimentation rates (up to 12 cm/kyear) of laminated organic carbon-rich biogenic limestones in the Tarfaya Basin provide an unusually high (millennial) resolution record of the late Cenomanian oceanic anoxic event (OAE-2). The global positive carbon-isotope excursion across the Cenomanian–Turonian corresponds to 11 light/dark sedimentary cycles. We interpret these cycles as a response to orbital obliquity variation and estimate the duration of the complete excursion as 440 kyear or one long eccentricity cycle. On this timescale, the main increase in ¹³C values occurred over a short time interval of less than 20 kyear in the late Cenomanian and reached a first maximum approximately 15 kyear prior to the bulk (mainly coccoliths) ¹⁸O-derived sea surface maximum temperature that occurs coeval to the extinction of Rotalipora cushmani. Organic carbon-accumulation rates follow obliquity cycles, reaching a maximum approximately 10 kyear after the last occurrence of R. cushmani, then slowly decreasing during the early Turonian. Thus, the maximum temperature and the maximum organic carbon accumulation in the Tarfaya Basin lagged by at least 15 kyear behind the global carbon-isotope shift and a proposed reduction of atmospheric CO₂ content. The climate change across the Cenomanian/Turonian boundary probably occurred independent of CO₂ levels and may have been controlled by different greenhouse gases (water vapour and methane) and changes in ocean circulation (i.e., opening of the Equatorial Atlantic gateway)     

Evaluation of the accuracy of the EIGEN-1S and -2 CHAMP-derived gravity field models by satellite crossover altimetry

Since the advent of CHAMP, the first in a series of low-altitude satellites being almost continuously and precisely tracked by GPS, a new generation of long-wavelength gravitational geopotential models can be derived. The accuracy evaluation of these models depends to a large extent on the comparison with external data of comparable quality. Here, two CHAMP-derived models, EIGEN-1S and EIGEN-2, are tested with independent long-term-averaged single satellite crossover (SSC) sea heights from three altimetric satellites (ERS-1, ERS-2 and Geosat). The analyses show that long-term averages of crossover residuals still are powerful data to test CHAMP gravity field models. The new models are tested in the spatial domain with the aid of ERS-1/-2 and Geosat SSCs, and in the spectral domain with latitude-lumped coefficient (LLC) corrections derived from the SSCs. The LLC corrections allow a representation of the satellite-orbit-specific error spectra per order of the models spherical harmonic coefficients. These observed LLC corrections are compared to the LLC projections from the models variance–covariance matrix. The excessively large LLC errors at order 2 found in the case of EIGEN-2 with the ERS data are discussed. The degree-dependent scaling factors for the variance-covariance matrices of EIGEN-1S and –2, applied to obtain more realistic error estimates of the solved-for coefficients, are compatible with the results found here.     

Error analyses of resonant orbits for geodesy

An error analysis of resonant orbits for geodesy indicates that attempts to use resonance to recover high order geopotential coefficients may be seriously hampered by errors in the geopotential. This effect, plus the very high correlations (up to .99) of the resonant coefficients with each other and the orbital period in single satellite solutions, makesindividual resonant orbits of limited value for geodesy. Multiple-satellite, single-plane solutions are only a slight improvement over the single satellite case. Accurate determination of high order coefficients from low altitude resonant satellites requires multiple orbit planes and small drift-periods to reduce correlations and effects of errors of non-resonant geopotential terms. Also, the effects of gravity model errors on low-altitude resonant satellites make the use of tracking arcs exceeding two to three weeks of doubtful validity. Because high-altitude resonant orbits are less affected by non-resonant terms in the geopotential, much longer tracking arcs can be used for them.     

Mental maps and travel behaviour: meanings and models

In this paper, the “mental map” concept is positioned with regard to individual travel behaviour to start with. Based on Ogden and Richards’ triangle of meaning (The meaning of meaning: a study of the influence of language upon thought and of the science of symbolism. International library of psychology, philosophy and scientific method. Routledge and Kegan Paul, London, 1966) distinct thoughts, referents and symbols originating from different scientific disciplines are identified and explained in order to clear up the notion’s fuzziness. Next, the use of this concept in two major areas of research relevant to travel demand modelling is indicated and discussed in detail: spatial cognition and decision-making. The relevance of these constructs to understand and model individual travel behaviour is explained and current research efforts to implement these concepts in travel demand models are addressed. Furthermore, these mental map notions are specified in two types of computational models, i.e. a Bayesian Inference Network (BIN) and a Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM). Both models are explained, and a numerical and a real-life example are provided. Both approaches yield a detailed quantitative representation of the mental map of decision-making problems in travel behaviour.     

Implications of diverse sedimentation patterns in Hala Lake, Qinghai Province, China for reconstructing Late Quaternary climate

Hala Lake is located in the Qilian Mountains, Qinghai Province, China, at 4,078?m a.s.l. Its sediments contain an archive of climate and hydrologic changes during the Late Quaternary, as it is located close to the area influenced by the East-Asian summer monsoon and westerly-driven air masses. Sedimentation patterns and depositional conditions within the lake were investigated using eight sediment cores from different water depths, and this information was used to evaluate the feasibility of using a single core to reconstruct past climate and hydrological conditions. Long core H7, from the center of the lake (65?m water depth) and core H8 from a western, near-shore location (20?m water depth), were compared in detail using sediment composition and geochemical data (X-ray fluorescence, loss-on-ignition and CNS analysis). Age models were constructed using 17 AMS radiocarbon dates and indicate negligible reservoir error for sediments from the lake center and?~1,000?year errors for the near-shore sediment core. Cores H1?CH5 and HHLS21-1 revealed a sediment succession from sand and silty clay to laminated clay on the southern side of the lake. Undisturbed, finely laminated sediments were found at water depths???15?m. Core H5 (2.5?m long), from 31?m water depth, yielded abundant green algal mats mixed with clayey lake deposits and was difficult to interpret. Algae occurred between 25 and 32?m water depth and influenced the dissolved oxygen content of the stratified lake. Comparison of cores H7 and H8 yielded prominent mismatches for different time periods, which may, in part, be attributed to internal lacustrine processes, independent of climate influence. We thus conclude that data from a single sediment core may lead to different climate inferences. Common shifts among proxy data, however, showed that major climate shifts, of regional to global significance, can be tracked and allow reconstruction of lake level changes over the last 24,000?years. Results indicate advance of glaciers into the lake basin during the LGM, at which time the lake experienced lowest levels, 25?C50?m below present stage. Stepwise refilling began at ca. 16 kyr BP and reached the ?25?m level during the B?lling/Aller?d warm phase, ca. 13.5 kyr BP. A desiccation episode falls within the Younger Dryas, followed by a substantial lake level rise during the first millennium of the Holocene, a result of climate warming, which promoted glacier melt. By ca. 7.6 kyr BP, the lake reached a stable high stand similar to the present level, which persisted until ca. 6 kyr BP. Disturbed sediments in core H7 indicate a single mass flow that was most likely triggered by a major seismic event?~8.5 kyr BP. Subsequent lake development remains unclear as a consequence of data mismatches, but may indicate a general trend to deteriorating conditions and lake level lowstands at ca. 5.0?C4.2, 2.0 and 0.5 kyr BP.     

Extreme climatic events in the Amazon basin

During 2009 the Amazon basin was hit by a heavy flooding with a magnitude and duration few times observed in several decades. Torrential rain in northern and eastern Amazonia during the austral summer of 2008–2009 swelled the Amazon River and its tributaries. By July 2009, water levels of the Rio Negro, a major Amazon tributary, reached at Manaus harbor a new record, the highest mark of the last 107?years. During the 2008–2009 hydrological year, the rainy season on northern and northwestern Amazonia started prematurely, and was followed by a longer-than-normal rainy season. An anomalously southward migration of the ITCZ during May–June 2009, due to the warmer than normal surface waters in the tropical South Atlantic, was responsible for abundant rainfall in large regions of eastern Amazonia and Northeast Brazil from May to July 2009. We also compared the flood of 2009 with other major events recorded in 1989 and 1999. The hydrological consequences of this pattern were earlier than normal floods in Amazon northern tributaries, which peak discharges at their confluences with the main stem almost coincided with the peaks of southern tributaries. Since the time displacement of the contribution to the main stem of northern and southern Amazon tributaries is fundamental for damping flood waves in the main stem, the simultaneous combinations of peak discharges of tributaries resulted in an extreme flood.     

Kinetics of the reactions of Cl atoms with 2-buten-1-ol, 2-methyl-2-propen-1-ol, and 3-methyl-2-buten-1-ol as a function of temperature

The reactions of three structurally similar unsaturated alcohols, 2-buten-1-ol (crotyl alcohol), 2-methyl-2-propen-1-ol (MPO221) and 3-methyl-2-buten-1-ol (MBO321) with Cl atoms, have been investigated for the first time, using a 400 l Teflon reaction chamber coupled with gas chromatograph-coupled with flame-ionization detection (GC-FID). The experiments were performed at atmospheric pressure and at temperatures between 255 and 298 K, in air or nitrogen as the bath gas. The obtained kinetic data were used to derive the Arrhenius expressions , , (in units of cm³ molecule⁻¹ s⁻¹). Finally, atmospheric lifetimes of those unsaturated alcohols with respect to OH, NO₃, O₃ and Cl have been calculated.     

Influence of similarity measures on the performance of the analog method for downscaling daily precipitation

This study examines the performance of the analog method for downscaling daily precipitation. The evaluation is performed for (1) a number of similarity measures for searching analogs, (2) various ways to include the past atmospheric evolution, and (3) different truncations in EOF space. It is carried out for two regions with complex topographic structures, and with distinct climatic characteristics, namely, California’s Central Valley (together with the Sierra Nevada) and the European Alps. NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data are used to represent the large scale state of the atmosphere over the regions. The assessment is based on simulating daily precipitation for 103 stations for the month of January, for the years 1950–2004 in the California region, and for 70 stations in the European Alps (January 1948–2004). Generally, simulated precipitation is in better agreement with observations in the California region than in the European Alps. Similarity measures such as the Euclidean norm, the sum of absolute differences and the angle between two atmospheric states perform better than measures which introduce additional weightings to principal components (e.g., the Mahalanobis distance). The best choice seems dependent upon the target variable. Lengths of wet spells, for instance, are best simulated by using the angular similarity measure. Overall, the Euclidean norm performs satisfactorily in most cases and hence is a reasonable first choice, whereas the use of Mahalanobis distance is less advisable. The performance of the analog method improves by including large-scale information for bygone days, particularly, for the simulation of wet and dry spells. Optimal performance is obtained when about 85–90% of the total predictor variability is retained.     

Light curve morphology study of UW CrB – evidence for a 5 d superorbital period

Since its discovery in 1990, UW CrB (also known as MS1603+2600) has remained a peculiar source without firm classification. Our current understanding is that it is an accretion disc corona (ADC) low-mass X-ray binary. In this paper, we present results from our photometric campaign dedicated to studying the changing morphology of the optical light curves. We find that the optical light curves show remarkable evidence for strongly evolving light curve shapes. In addition, we find that these changes show a modulation at a period of ∼5 d. We interpret these changes as either due to strong periodic accretion disc warping or due to other geometrical changes because of disc precession at a period of 5 d. Finally, we have detected 11 new optical bursts, the phase distribution of which supports the idea of a vertically extended asymmetric accretion disc.